Braemar Share Discussion Threads

[stopps] 18/10/2019 09:16

£2.21 printed.Appears short of stock!

[edmundshaw] 17/10/2019 13:23

Thanks MT - crossed posts...

[edmundshaw] 17/10/2019 13:21

From Clarksons website:

Last week our cross-sector earnings index, the ClarkSea, recorded its biggest ever weekly percentage move (23% to $20,096/day), and this week we have another record, including the biggest absolute increase (55% to $31,207/day). The current spike is very much tanker driven (VLCCs: $307,888/day!)

For the rest of the text you need to log in to their site...

[mount teide] 17/10/2019 13:19

Edmund - heavily overweight the tanker sector, the recent development detailed below will have been a huge boost to BMS, as will the preparations for the implementation of the new low sulphur IMO 2020 Fuel Regulations in Jan 2020:

The US blacklisting of Chinese ships has seen oil buyers scrambling for capacity, pushing shipping rates to a more than decade high.

Average spot market rates for a VLCC(Very large Crude Carrier) have rocketed 522% in two weeks from 18,000 USD per day on 25th Sept to 94,000 USD per day by 9th October!

Clarkson CKN share price has surged 11.1% to an 18 month high.


'Oil Shipping Costs Soar to Highest Levels in 11 Years - Wall Street Journal

The cost of moving oil around the world has hit an 11-year high as producers scramble to find new supertankers following a U.S. blacklisting of a major Chinese operator that has sidelined dozens of ships.

“The market has gone bonkers by shock events like the Cosco tankers being blacklisted,” said George Lazaridis, head of research and valuations at Athens, Greece-based Allied Shipbroking. “It’s a bubble that could get bigger because of geopolitics before it bursts.”

Shipping executives say the U.S. action late last month over allegations that the vessels were tied to illicit shipments of Iranian crude has hit more than 40 tankers operated by a subsidiary of Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation, one of the world’s largest tanker owners and a major carrier for China’s oil needs.

Washington’s move pushed Asian and European importers searching for crude carriers in a tight market to secure oil cargoes as winter approaches.

But with Iran and Venezuela oil exports also under U.S. sanctions and Saudi Arabian oil production still trying to recover from a missile attack in September, oil traders have been turning to the U.S. for crude shipments.

The longer distance to move oil cargoes from the U.S. to Europe and Asia compared with moving them from the Middle East, has pushed daily charter rates for the big ships called very large crude carriers to their highest level since July 2008, according to Baltic Exchange data.

“There is a lot of confusion and uncertainty out there,” said Paolo d’Amico, head of Intertanko, a trade body representing tanker owners. “Everyone is afraid of being hit by the U.S., sanctions, rendering about 50 VLCCs untouchable.”

U.S. oil exports to Europe, which usually move in smaller tankers, hit a record 1.8 million barrels a day for the week ending Oct. 7, according to Kpler, an energy market intelligence company. The figure is double the 924,000 barrels in the previous week. But shipments to Asia, which are typically done on VLCCs, were reduced almost in half to 508,000 barrels.

A Singapore broker said rates for some VLCC cargoes on sailings from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the Far East were more than $120,000 on Thursday. Average earnings for supertankers picking up cargoes from around the world hit $94,124 a day, up from $18,284 on Sept. 25, when Washington blacklisted the Cosco fleet.

“VLCCs to Asia are a rare commodity, the market is red hot and will stay that way while the U.S. sanctions on Cosco ships are in place,” said the broker, who asked not to be named because he isn’t authorized to talk to the media.

Senior U.S. and Chinese officials squared off in trade talks Thursday at a pivotal moment in the countries’ relationship with President Trump planning to meet with the head of the Chinese negotiating team, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, when the talks are scheduled to conclude Friday.

People with knowledge of the matter said the Chinese delegation planned to bring up the tanker ban during the talks.

Cosco Energy’s parent company, state-owned Cosco Shipping Group, is the world’s biggest shipping operator in terms of overall capacity, operating more than 1,100 vessels of all types, including container ships, tankers and bulk carriers. The company is also a part of Beijing’s multitrillion-dollar Belt and Road initiative that aims to establish infrastructure and distribution channels to help extend China’s influence around the world.

The Cosco tanker ban covers around 6% of the global VLCC fleet but other factors are leaving shipping capacity tight. Many large tankers and smaller ships are in dry dock being retrofitted with sulfur-trapping exhaust systems ahead of a regulation to clean up ship emissions that goes into effect in January.

“The [freight rate] expectations going into 2020 were already high because of the 2020 climate regulations,” said Evangelos Marinakis, chairman of Athens-based Capital Maritime & Trading Corp., which operates 10 VLCCs. “With so many geopolitical and industry-specific factors now pushing the market, it’s hard to predict when it will settle. But we expect the current strength to continue well into next year.” '

[edmundshaw] 17/10/2019 13:09

Nice uptick. Don't tell me there is good news on the way!?!

[smicker] 09/10/2019 12:36

Why have they changed their corporate broker?

[spooky] 30/8/2019 12:28

Looks like a pretty positive sign to me.

[cwa1] 30/8/2019 11:41

30 August 2019

BRAEMAR SHIPPING SERVICES PLC

("Braemar", the "Company" or the "Group")

Notification of transaction by Person Discharging Managerial Responsibility

Braemar Shipping Services plc (LSE:BMS) announces that it has received notification of the purchase of a total of 25,000 ordinary shares of 10p each in the Company ("Shares") by James Gundy, Chief Executive of the Company's Shipbroking division, with 5,000 Shares purchased at 198p each and 20,000 shares purchased at 201.475p each.

The Company also announces that it has received notification of an historic shareholding held by a connected person of James Gundy of 5,000 Shares, which were acquired prior to James Gundy becoming a Person Discharging Managerial Responsibility of the Company.

Following these notifications, James Gundy's total holding of Shares (including those of persons closely associated with him) is 555,278 Shares, representing approximately 1.76% of the Company's issued ordinary share capital.

[mount teide] 27/8/2019 19:53

Shipping magnate goes ‘all in’ with IMO 2020 wager - FreightWaves

'When John Fredriksen — the world’s most famous living shipping magnate — makes a big move, a common response is to ask: What does he know that we don’t?

Fredriksen just made a big move, actually, two related ones. What they amount to is a very large bet that the IMO 2020 rule, which will cap marine-fuel sulfur content, is going to be highly profitable for the tanker sector.

To put it another way, it’s a wager that it will be more expensive to ship cargo by sea. If so, there would be consequences for all transport modes, including those on land — because if the cost of marine fuel surges, diesel will almost certainly follow suit.......

[mount teide] 10/8/2019 10:58

There is nothing the commodity hungry Chinese economy likes more, than bargain prices!


China Goes Big on Commodities Purchase Amid Shifting Trade War - Hellenic Shipping News today

Commodity purchases by China rebounded strongly in July. Imports of soy to coal and crude oil gained, signaling demand in the world’s biggest buyer remains solid even as a trade spat with the U.S. escalates.

The increase comes as the nation’s overall imports shrank less than forecast while export growth rebounded, signaling some recovery in trade before new tariffs threatened by the U.S.

The nation’s total imports “look surprising,” with the strong commodity component driven by both rising prices and volumes, said Betty Wang, senior China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Coal and crude oil volumes also held up, which could be seen as signs of rising energy demand,” she said, adding that higher iron ore prices year-on-year also boosted the value of imports.

Soy
Soybean shipments jumped in July to the highest level in almost a year as Chinese crushers boosted volumes from South America, and before halting U.S. purchases. Imports rose to 8.64 million tons last month, from 6.51 million tons in June and 8 million a year ago. The strength may persist through August and September, which could raise inventories and slow future purchases.

Coal
Coal imports surged to the highest in six months as companies brace for tougher import controls in the second half. Shipments jumped 13% in July from a year ago to 32.89 million tons, handing authorities further impetus to clamp down as they aim to keep annual volumes at levels similar to last year’s.

Crude Oil
The end of a peak maintenance period saw China’s crude oil imports recover in July as state refiners rebuild stockpiles. Purchases climbed 14% on-year to 41.04 million tons. Additional crude oil quota to private refiners should keep imports upbeat in the second half, according to a note from ANZ.

Iron Ore
Iron ore sees yet more evidence of rebounding supply. Chinese imports soared to 91 million tons in July from 75 million a month earlier as output disruptions in Australia and Brazil ease. Purchases were also up slightly from a year ago.

Copper
Chinese buying of overseas copper concentrates rose to a record amid an ongoing push to boost domestic refining capacity. And while inbound cargoes of unwrought copper and products fell from a year earlier, they were up from the prior month as import premiums rose.

[mount teide] 10/8/2019 10:28

Two good articles published in Hellenic Shipping News today for those looking at timing an investment to the shipping market cycle.



'Dry Bulk Ships’ Demolition Rate at Lowest Level of the Past Five Years'



'The shipping markets are classically cyclical, but with extreme volatility. In fact, bulkers and tankers probably have the highest volatility of any major hard asset. The reason for this volatility is due to two main elements: the behaviour of shipowners and investors, and the relatively long build times and working lives of vessels........'

[neilyb675] 09/8/2019 07:26

thankyou.....I await a mammoth post from Mount Tiede where he tells us everything since the world began.

[edmundshaw] 08/8/2019 17:59

BDI has dropped a bit recently. Now flat on the month and only 1% up on the year... I suspect the steam is going out of the index as Trump ramps up his little trade dispute...

[smicker] 06/8/2019 09:47

Its not buying from our managing director logistics anyway.

[cwa1] 30/7/2019 11:20

Tim, agreed, got a decent clip going now. Makes a pleasant change!

[dtaliadoros] 30/7/2019 11:05

Any idea what's behind todays rather pleasant rise?

[this_is_me] 30/7/2019 09:57

It's a bit more than creeping up. Unfortunately I bought a bit too soon so am still a bit underwater(!) The results to Feb 2020 should be a big improvement and we should be on top of the waves well before then.

[cwa1] 30/7/2019 09:31

Very quietly creeping up over the past day or two. Fingers crossed for more...

[cwa1] 26/7/2019 09:23

If nothing else I can content myself with a very decent dividend this morning to give me succour whilst I wait for the great leap forward...

[edmundshaw] 24/7/2019 16:16

Just as an added bonus for holding these shares: even if we don't have get short term upside from here, the current yield is 8.57% @175p.

That is not sustainable in the longer term unless inflation and interest rates rocket, which of course no-one is predicting or discounting. So either the price rises or earnings fall to force the dividend payout down. Right now, my bets are firmly on the upside proposition.

[cwa1] 24/7/2019 08:15

Thanks for your thoughts MT, appreciated. It certainly will be interesting to see when/if the benefits of a rising BDI will filter through to being benefits for shareholders!

I think you need to let the board know if you ever do anything as rash as consider, or even actually, buying shares in BMS MT :-)

[edmundshaw] 23/7/2019 21:52

Sounds hopeful... of course we don't know how successful the diversification has been yet, but BMS is certainly beaten down, and there is a decent chance of a good recovery.

[mount teide] 23/7/2019 16:07

Edmund - after rebuilding exposure to the dry bulk sector, the huge recent rise in the BDI - which is likely to strengthen further in the run up to the implementation of the IMO 2020 Fuel Regs - should increasingly impact BMS's revenue in a material way during H2/2019 and 2020 - since shipbrokers earn a fixed percentage of a charter contract(If the BDI triples then a shipbrokers fee per dry bulk ship charter contract should triple in cash terms).

The issue for BMS is the sector receives little attention from PI's and not much more from II's, market sentiment surrounding the company is poor, the chart awful, and the perception(rightly or wrongly) there are better companies in the sector to get exposure to the global shipping industry at this stage of the shipping market cycle.

A beaten down BMS with new management and a more diversified business has the potential to prove a contrarian investment at this stage of the shipping market cycle - the fundamentals and timing could not be better for an industry professional to come in as CEO and turn around the company's fortunes. Worth a punt - as at this level the risk/reward is very much skewed to the upside over a 2 year view.

AIMHO/DYOR