Braemar Share Discussion Threads

[qs9] 07/12/2009 18:57

OK thanks Aleman

[aleman] 07/12/2009 13:39

Not really:

On 1 December 2009, the Barclays Global Investors (BGI) business was acquired by
BlackRock, Inc. The combined holdings of BlackRock, Inc following this
acquisition triggered this disclosure requirement.

[qs9] 07/12/2009 10:36

Seen new holder? Very interesting...

[go with the flow] 05/12/2009 15:17

Good price consolidation over recent weeks.
Keeps knocking on the door of 450p - once open then 500p beckons!

SJ: BDI - Braemar Dour Investor ;o)

Flow

[sailing john] 04/12/2009 14:02

BDI + 45 to 4107

[sailing john] 03/12/2009 14:15

BDI bounce confirmed +144 to 4062 today

[sailing john] 02/12/2009 16:41

I can post BDI again (cos it's heading back up) +82 today

[phooey] 02/12/2009 13:55

No problem SJ... wouldn't normally post/link tipsters but this was an interesting report

[sailing john] 01/12/2009 15:36

Thanks for the link
SJ

[davebowler] 27/11/2009 17:41

Applies just as much to ours' too.


Buy Clarkson (CKN) at 793.5p
Says James Faulkner of specialist small cap website WatsHot.com
Since James tipped Clarkson to his subscribers only 14 days ago, the share price has risen by 40.5p. James has another hot investment tip due out today. To catch the next hot t1p from James Click here
Warren Buffet recently made a "huge bet" on the US economy through the takeover of Burlington Northern Santa Fe, America's largest rail network. My latest investment goes along similar lines. There are few industries more geared to a recovery in economic activity than shipping. Clarkson is the world's leading provider of shipping services, a quality business with a 150-year pedigree. One third of the firm's market cap is backed up by net cash and investments, putting the shares on a very low rating. The share price has gone a long way since the lows of late 2008, but they should have much further to go as the economic recovery gains pace. The Baltic Dry Index - a key measure of the health of the shipping sector - has risen by around 34% in the last month, yet Clarkson shares have fallen by around 10% since then, providing an excellent opportunity to Buy, at 793.5p.
THE BUSINESS

Founded in 1852, Clarkson is a venerable old British firm that has established itself as a leading name in its field. The firm's big breakthrough came in the 1920s when it became exclusive broker to Esso and thereby the biggest tanker broker in the world. It has since transformed itself into a truly global player with a network of offices across five continents, providing an array of financial as well as port services.

Clarkson's central business is its Broking division, which operates through the H. Clarkson and Company and Clarkson Overseas Shipbroking businesses. Within the broking division Clarkson's activities involve the chartering of dry bulk, containers, deep sea tankers, specialised products, gas and other commodities, as well as brokering the sale and purchase of new, second hand and to be demolished ships. The broking division accounted for around three quarters of group revenues during the previous financial year.

The second largest division by revenues is Financial. The division's activities include the provision of financial services to investors in the shipping markets, financial futures broking and investment banking. The division also has fund management operations, making Clarkson one of only a small number of firms solely focused on shipping investments.

Clarkson's Support division comprises the activities of: logistics, which operates a products tanker; operations, which supports the broking division by ensuring that contracts are completed; port and agency services, which offers activities such as warehousing and tug boat sourcing; and finally technical services, which carries out repairs, ship inspections and other related activities.

Finally, the smallest division by revenue contribution is Research. The Clarkson research businesses maintains shipping and offshore databases and produces over 200 products which include shipping guides, market reports and forecasts, amongst others.
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SHIP BROKING - AFTER THE STORM

The financial crisis wreaked havoc on global trade. According to the World Bank, the dollar value of trade is down by around one third since 2008. Given that shipping accounts for roughly 95% of the global transportation of goods, ship brokers like Clarkson got their fair share of the malaise. Although the brokers are not directly exposed to shipping in the way that the shipping companies themselves are, they are affected through the function of demand and supply on rates and volumes, from which they derive their commission.

Shipping is divided into dry and wet cargoes, with wet referring mainly to the transportation of oil. Both volumes and rates are usually more stable for wet cargoes, but rates are generally lower than for dry cargoes. This is down to the fact that demand for energy is relatively inelastic in a recession when compared to capital goods, the consumption of which can easily be scaled back. A key barometer of the health of the dry shipping market is the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The index peaked at 11,648 in May 2008 before hitting a low of just 666 in December. However, it has since recovered to 3,748 (at time of writing). One of the reasons for the dramatic fall during the latter part of 2008 was the collapse of the credit market, which plays an integral role in ship finance. Another is the fact that there are currently a glut of ships on the market, and there is a time lag between a fall in orders and a fall in production.

Clarkson is highly exposed to volatility in shipping rates, with dry bulk chartering being its main activity and accounting for almost on third of revenues in 2008. As global trade begins to return to a more 'normal' level, shipping rates and volumes should continue to improve and so should the fees earned by brokers like Clarkson. In essence this is a geared play on the recovery in international trade.
RECENT TRADING - STEADY AS SHE GOES

After recording two successive years of record growth in 2007 and 2008, results for the six months to 30 June saw revenues fall by 25% to GBP88.9 million, reflecting lower charter rates and asset values across broking and financial activities partly offset by a stronger US dollar and the solid forward order book. Earnings per share fell 42% to 42.1p, and the interim dividend remained unchanged at 16p.

Since then conditions have remained tough, but a recent trading update illustrated a resilient performance. Transaction volumes in the Broking operations have been maintained or increased across most of the desks, particularly in dry cargo, deep sea tankers, gas and specialised products. Revenues have been affected by lower freight rates although some areas, such as gas and specialised products, have experienced profit growth. The firm has also seen signs of a recovery in the S&P (sale and purchase) market, although conditions here remain hampered by lingering weakness in the credit markets. Financial services has grown its market share, and Support Services and Research are also holding up well.
*The value of investments can go down as well as up. Investing in equities can lose you part or all of your capital. Smaller company shares can be relatively illiquid and thus hard to trade. And that makes such investments more of a high risk than larger company shares. UK-Analyst.com is owned by t1ps.com Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the FSA and can be contacted at 5-11 Worship Street, London EC2A 2BH or on 020 7562 3370.

FORECASTS - CLEARER SKIES AHEAD?

For the current year to December broker Daniel Stewart expects EPS of 82.6p on pre-tax profits of GBP21.8 million. Although this is a far cry from the respective 201.1p and GBP53.6 million reported in 2008, a modest recovery in shipping markets should see profits rise to GBP24.8 million and earnings hit 91.7p in 2010. With the shares at 793.5p, this implies a current rating of 9.6 falling to 8.6 for 2010. However, if we strip out cash and investments worth 265p, the underlying business trades on a rating of 6.4 falling to 5.75. Such a rating more than adequately reflects the volatility of shipping rates and leaves plenty of room for a re-rating should they continue to appreciate. Buy for the economic recovery. Buy, at 793.5p.
Key Data
EPIC: CKN

[chector177] 27/11/2009 10:17

Doesn't seem to be effected by the Dubai turmoil, but then again why should it.

[fat_boy] 26/11/2009 18:54

Still looking strong

[go with the flow] 21/11/2009 15:25

Chart looking good, didn't look back to test 400p support just motored on!
Agree with FB that 500p looks likely.
Flow

[fat_boy] 20/11/2009 15:54

Looks set to close at a yearly+ high.

500p by year end. Mark my words

[sailing john] 20/11/2009 14:48

Something in the mail today - about 50 ships storing oil around our coast. Banks taking advantage of the massive contango in the futures curve at the start of the year. A one way bet with near zero risk Buy cash and sell a winter 09/10 futures contract. Pay someone to kindly store on their spare tamker and sit back and wait for the profit and that nice fat 10% bonus cheque!!
Simples!!
SJ

[go with the flow] 19/11/2009 20:03

Further to the report some time ago about VLCC's being used just to store oil.
I heard a short radio report entitled 'Sharks off the Cornish coast' concerning a couple of tankers currently off the Western Approaches holding off discharging until the oil price rises more!
Will help the shipping companies but not my fuel costs ;o(
Flow

[sambessey] 19/11/2009 15:10

Baltic Dry Index.... It gives a representative overview of how much it costs to move dry goods between ports basically.

[chector177] 19/11/2009 14:56

I'm going to show how ignorant I am now but what does BDI stand for?

[sailing john] 19/11/2009 14:19

BDI plus 18 to 4661 - top in? or just pausing for breath after yesterday.

[sailing john] 18/11/2009 19:46

Out all day so a late BDI update - but well worth waiting for
BDI +262 to 4643 amazing!
SJ

[sailing john] 17/11/2009 15:15

And here is the BDI bulletin for today +161 to 4381 - no stopping this rise at the moment. Must be putting a bit of pressure on the share price for anyone with their finger hovering on that buy button!
SJ

[sailing john] 16/11/2009 14:52

BDI still has good momentum +109 to 4220 today
Enough for 4500 by Friday?

[chector177] 16/11/2009 10:58

thanks for the advice sailing john, I was too late for the next dividend, I hope you enjoy it :-)