Bp Share Discussion Threads

[leadersoffice] 11/2/2021 03:15

I've just topped up my holdings. Expecting north of £3.75 year end.

[invisage] 10/2/2021 23:56

The data worth keeping a track on is how well the Vaccine is progressing in the US / UK and this how quickly the economies can reopen, below is UK stats - Significant drop in hospital cases and the vaccine jabs keep plodding along nicely.....Next 4-6 weeks will be a game changer in my view. All these jabs will be taking effect an most likely schools will be re-opened increasing fuel demand.



UK COVID update: Number of new cases dropping fast

- New cases: 13,013
- In hospital: 24,404 (-1,273)
- In ICU: 3,130 (-41)
- New deaths: 1,001

Vaccinated:
- 1st dose: 13.1M (+412K)
- 2nd dose: 520K (+3K)

By population:
- 1st dose: 19.55% (+0.62)
- 2nd dose: 0.777% (+0.004)

[invisage] 10/2/2021 23:47

Also note the $55.18 YTD Brent price is up to 3rd February so it does not include the 10% increase in Brent price the past week.


All the various crudes WTI, URALS, MARS etc are well above 2020 quarter prices and Nat Gas prices are well above the quarters in 2020

[invisage] 10/2/2021 23:42

This link from BP website is useful:




It shows Year to date Brent has averaged $55.18/bbl higher then all the quarters in 2020.

Also it shows refining margins headed upwards.

I keep referring back to Slide 14 as it shows BP's internal model for cash generation at the various Brent prices......if we do achieve Citi's $64/bbl forecast in 2021 then BP will be well ahead of the Q4 promise of Net Debt to $35bn and buy backs may start earlier.




It is worth bearing in mind every buyback historically has resulted in a significant re-rating of BP share price.

A) It discourages shorters

B) The loose stock is mopped up.

At $61/Brent there is a decent margin of safety (with BP's Oil price guidance being $45-50/bbl in 2021 ) if Oil price pulls back which is definitely possible short term given the run its had.

[invisage] 10/2/2021 23:31

Belzoni

I don't have access to how HL calculates the trade data - what you say maybe true as level two uses an algorithm to classify trades above mid point as buys and below as sells etc

But that data is not reliable as you say.

Reality though is every trade has a buyer and a seller....

[belzoni] 10/2/2021 23:29

You're doing the right thing. Ignore short term movements. Invest for next year. If you have the strength to hold, you'll do well

[invisage] 10/2/2021 23:29

*CITI RAISES 2021 PRICE FORECAST FOR BRENT TO $64 A BARREL

[belzoni] 10/2/2021 23:25

If you'd ever had LSE or DMA privileges then you'd know how to interpret trade reporting. Public sites like these report trades like muppets - they often show the opposite of reality to the public. If you can place trades on the order book, an auto sell order will be reported as a buy and vice versa, hence sucking in rookie traders when institutional holders are offloading.Trust me, I have the T shirt.Pay for level 2 and watch. It's the opposite of what the public is shown.Invest, not trade, it's the only way to avoid losing.

[invisage] 10/2/2021 23:24

JP MORGAN SEES COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE ALREADY KICKING OFF

[invisage] 10/2/2021 23:06

Buys of BP keep outstripping sells on HL website daily


hxxps://www.hl.co.uk/shares

[slinkyj] 10/2/2021 22:51

Don't get me wrong I'll do my research as well. Just I like to have some confirmation on my thoughts. I'm also a sucker for the badly hit or oversold shares. Love a recovery share. There's a few others on my radar, I'd like to pump some in those as well. But they have further to fall so I'm happy to wait for BP to hit 330 for my top slice.

[invisage] 10/2/2021 22:17

How long before BP raises their guidance on Oil price from $45-50/bbl?





The U.S. Energy Information Administration has raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate oil price forecasts for 2021 and 2022

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price forecasts for 2021 and 2022, its February short term energy outlook (STEO) report has revealed.

According to the latest report, the EIA now sees Brent spot prices averaging $53.20 per barrel this year and $55.19 per barrel next year and WTI spot prices averaging $50.21 per barrel this year and $51.56 per barrel next year. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in January, saw Brent spot prices averaging $52.70 per barrel in 2021 and $53.44 per barrel in 2022. It projected that WTI spot prices would average $49.70 per barrel in 2021 and $49.81 per barrel in 2022.

In its latest STEO, the EIA highlighted that Brent spot prices averaged $55 per barrel in January, which it noted was up $5 per barrel from the December average but $9 per barrel lower than the average in January last year.

“Higher Brent prices in January largely reflected the January 5 announcement by Saudi Arabia that it would unilaterally cut one million barrels per day of crude oil production in February and March, in addition to the reduced production levels on which the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries (OPEC+) previously agreed,” the EIA stated in its February STEO.

“The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects Brent crude oil prices will average $56 per barrel in the first quarter of 2021 and $52 per barrel over the remainder of the year,” the EIA added.

hxxps://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_raises_oil_price_forecasts-10-feb-2021-164578-article/

[belzoni] 10/2/2021 20:29

Good news, but we need to start producing and using more of it, which will begin to happen soon I have no doubt.A month or two to go through lockdowns yet, that's why people are not rushing to invest - fearful of a sell off and a better entry perhaps.Longer term investing? Not worried.

[invisage] 10/2/2021 19:01

Borrowed conviction is worse than borrowed money slinkyj....

People should do their own research all the detail you need on BP is on their website and Youtube...

If your comfortable owning based on your research it is irrelevant what others say they can't scare you out of your position....

Most people don't read the annual report so by doing so you are well ahead of most...

Best to make your own mistakes and learn...no shortcuts in this game...

[slinkyj] 10/2/2021 17:50

Understand Invisage. The only time I sell is if my mate tells me too ha ha! Last time he did was when the new variant news came out before Xmas. Then the price went up lol what's weird is people are sweating about it now when they have said the variants although an issue are less deadly in a already vaccined community ? I got back in with three tranches recently on the drop for a hold up to 330, top slice and keep the rest in for years compounding. You just know that the price can't go down much more and it won't be long before the pressure of the super fast recovery will drag it back up. I'm not pressed to have my money out so I just leave it to do it's thing. Waste of time buying and selling the dips as it just adds to the choppiness . Clear message to the mm's holders are holding

[invisage] 10/2/2021 17:29

Energy top sector today..

[invisage] 10/2/2021 17:14

SlinkyJ

Constructive negative criticism is good - with Irish I think there is some foul play, he wants to scare people out of their positions so he can make £10 ...


BP was down 1.8% at one point, now rallied back to down 0.2%

Best to do nothing, not get shaken out once you done your homework.

Just look at what is happening to Oil inventories in the US .... What do you think will happen when the world economies are in full swing?





U.S CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES ACTUAL: -6645K VS -994K PREVIOUS; EST -800K

U.S CUSHING CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES ACTUAL: -658K VS -1517K PREVIOUS

U.S GASOLINE INVENTORIES ACTUAL: 4259K VS 4467K PREVIOUS; EST 2100K

U.S DISTILLATE INVENTORY ACTUAL: -1732K VS -9K PREVIOUS; EST -1327K

[hellscream] 10/2/2021 16:39

covid is fake, i dont know one person who has it, and ive been working all through it. where is it??

[slinkyj] 10/2/2021 16:16

Thanks for the info Irish. As much as I hate to hear it, I find it educational somewhat ?

[crazi] 10/2/2021 15:33

More good news:

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Joshua Mahony
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Trendline support holds, as US Crude Inventories tumble by -6.6M(vs -0.9M exp) #OOTT


Yet oil shares continue to fall...

[eurofox] 10/2/2021 15:25

most of the UK is froth day traders getting whip-sawed by the more experience algos

[invisage] 10/2/2021 14:36

XLE
Chevron
Oxxy
Exxon

All blue in the US - RDSB and BP are being dragged up from miserable UK investors :-)

[invisage] 10/2/2021 14:16

The roads bumpy.....but ultimately fundamentals will play out.


No need to trade this folks, just sit tight.

The time to sell will be when everyone's outside again, travel is open etc maybe sometime in 2022.

In the meantime just enjoy the dividend and Netflix!