Bp Share Discussion Threads

[invisage] 10/2/2021 07:40

DOW up 100 points, FTSE opening +0.66%, Brent $61/bbl


Exxon back at January Highs.....BP off 15% from January highs due to one off items which will rectify over the course of the year.....


You need to do your own research to have conviction in your own holdings so your in a position where you can ignore scaremongering from short term speculators.

£3 in Feb for BP looks plausible, it needs to play catch up with it's peers...

[crazi] 10/2/2021 00:10

They have already raised $4B for debt reduction 2021 (mainly realised 2nd half)... :-)

[invisage] 09/2/2021 23:34

Slinkyj8 Feb '21 - 19:09 - 94439 of 94527
0 4 1
Seeing as you guys clearly need input from the chap with the city mate, I thought I’d pipe up. Just come off a call from him as I’d really like to know his expectations of price targets. He stands by his prediction of 330 by Feb he mentioned last year and a slow and choppy rise up from there until it hits a cyclical stage between 350-400 if the next results show some decent debt reduction and signs the green agenda is working he said he expects 400+ for end of 2021 assuming oil stays above 50. He apologised for giving me the heads up to early as he hadn’t expected BP to go as low as 250. But is assuring me my average which we are head butting right now will soon be a distant memory. Now the variety’s are no longer such a threat, as in the current vaccines will prevent serious illness. Hold for riches were his words.


See post above, they just sold down OMAN Gas block raising $2.6bn so very much on track to pay down debt....

[invisage] 09/2/2021 22:50

Net debt at 31 December 2020 was $38.9 billion, compared with $45.4 billion a year ago. Gearing at 31 December 2020 was 31.3%, compared with 31.1% a year ago. Gearing including leases* at 31 December 2020 was 36.0%, compared with 35.3% a year ago. Net debt, gearing and gearing including leases are non-GAAP measures.2 Feb 2021



People forget BP sold down Oman gas block for $2.6bn just last week

hxxps://www.cityam.com/bp-sells-stake-in-giant-omani-gas-project-for-2-6bn/


I suspect a large part of that money will go towards paying down debt, the $39bn debt figure was as at 31st Dec.


BP is very much on track to deliver their targets of debt reduction especially if Brent continues above $50/bbl

As I said BP under promises and over delivers.....

[slinkyj] 09/2/2021 22:32

Oil majors transform to Energy majors The power of BP pretty much summed up here. Oil majors outbid green energy firms to build offshore UK windfarms(Bloomberg) --Oil majors agreed to pay a hefty premium to develop the next generation of major British offshore wind farms after BP Plc and Total SE won contracts in an auction ahead of many of the utilities that have dominated the space until now.The Crown Estate auctioned seabed rights that will allow about 8 gigawatts of new wind farms, enough to power more than 7 million homes. With oil majors taking a majority of the sites, it’s a sign that green energy companies are facing a new era of competition for some of the world’s biggest renewable energy projects.The winning companies will pay about $1.2 billion per year in total for up to a decade to develop the wind farms. BP led the bidding with an offer about 80% higher than the average of its competitors in the auction for sites in the waters around England and Wales, an area it’s long familiar with through its oil operations.“These huge upfront costs will put up barriers to entry for utilities and oil and gas companies without very deep pockets,â€? Barclays Plc analysts led by Dominic Nash said in a note.Big WindIt’s the first time in a decade the Crown Estate has offered seabed for new wind farms and the first time it’s done so with this kind of competitive auction. The industry has changed drastically in the meantime as the cost of construction and financing plummeted and competition for the projects has soared, most notably from traditional fossil-fuel producers.Winning bids came from a consortium of BP and German utility EnBW Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg AG for a total capacity of 3 gigawatts, while a partnership of Total and Macquarie Group Ltd.’s Green Investment Group got 1.5 gigawatts and RWE AG’s renewables arm won 3 gigawatts. Cobra Instalaciones y Servicios SA and Flotation Energy Plc, a floating wind farm specialist, will jointly develop a 480-megawatt site.Getting hold of the seabed rights is the crucial first step in building a wind farm, a process that can take years.Renewable PowerThe development rights will also be key for BP and Total to realize the oil companies’ goals to dramatically scale up their renewable power businesses.

[kasamavic] 09/2/2021 22:20

There's some saddo on here that's giving the thumbs down to the posts.They have to be blue to do this and have to nothing better to do with their time.

[invisage] 09/2/2021 21:51

API stats just out draws in Crude inventory

Crude: -3.500M
Cushing: -1.378M
Gasoline: +4.810M
Distillate: -0.487M



BULLISH!!

[invisage] 09/2/2021 21:36

So why is BP share price down after results, well according to this the markets expected

a) BP's net debt to be lower than it is, they wanted $38bn net debt rather than $39bn delivered by BP

b) Markets did not expect Net debt to go up in 1H due to severance payments


In 2021 Analysts want to see profits improve and costs come down. And they want to see BP deliver on low carbon strategy.

See interview from Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth (Oil & Gas Equity Research Analyst at Barclays Investment Bank) - She thinks BP pursuing right strategy with clean energy. She says BP Cash flow is resilient till 2025 and growing....She expects dividends and buy backs to come through.....




BP share price not rallied yet due to cautious guidance from BP management, they keep guiding $45-50/bbl .... which means once we get a sustained period of higher oil prices above the $50/bbl range the markets will reprice the likes of BP


She thinks Buy backs and higher dividends could be brought forward later in the year.......

[crazi] 09/2/2021 21:21

It's better to lead from the front than play catch up from the rear...!

[crazi] 09/2/2021 20:44

Belzoni - the oil price only started to recover in November. That meant about 6 weeks only went in to the end year results and yet BP turned a 4th Quarter profit. 2021 has a much higher brent average so far and will likely continue to rise most of 2021.

$1Billion debt reduction "per month" throughout 2020! and already another $5B agreed so far for 2021

Large cost reductions (albeit some expense to finalise 1st half 21)

The Green side of the business will only be circa 10% for years and it's vital in todays world to be leading in green for many reasons, business and social.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 09/2/2021 20:31

Very good, fair enough - you have done that research and know what you're doing. I used to do it on this company, but as I say for me things have changed and I don't know it as well as I used to. Looking beyond the next 4-5 years (remember yesterday's 'discussion' re 20 years or 30 years) it's clear that things are changing and the future is not (for me) obvious.

I just don't fancy the journey - it may work out well, but it would not be buying into what this business used to be.

Wish you well with it.

[invisage] 09/2/2021 20:15

Belzoni

As BP said they took large hits due to severance payments, $1.4 billion as part of their BP Reinvent programme which includes laying off 10,000 people. These aren't chavs being lid off, they are highly skilled individuals who would have got decent pay offs etc.

BP also said they had poor downstream performance most likely trading did not perform as they say "significantly weaker contribution from gas marketing and trading". But BP have indicated this has picked up in 2021.......by how much we don't know but sounds like better than Q4.

Also BP did not receive a dividend from Rosneft in the 4th Quarter compared to the 3 rd quarter.

Take a look at slide 11 here:

BP expected to save $2.5bn per year by end 2021. And $3-4bn by 2023.


See this:



We now expect to achieve a pre-tax savings run-rate of $2.5 billion
relative to 2019 during 2021, ahead of our prior guidance of end2021;
– And we continue to expect $3 to 4 billion pre-tax cost savings from
reinvent by 2023, relative to 2019.



At $55/ Brent BP will buy back and give dividends equivalent to 10 cents per share each quarter :

Together with our buyback commitment, this means that in aggregate
across 2021-25 we expect to deliver per share distributions equivalent
to over 10 cents per quarter at around $55 Brent and bp planning
assumptions, with upside to higher prices.

[invisage] 09/2/2021 19:39

Yes NET DEBT

But HUGE amount of cash so not going bust anytime soon so no need to be scared out of your shares.

BP has a strategy to pay down the debt by divesting assets and growing cash flow due to firmer Brent and lower operating costs will help them on their way with an improving operating environment thanks to the roll out of the vaccine.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 09/2/2021 19:18

Really?

Page 25 of the RNS - net debt...

$70bn gross debt, $31bn cash, $39bn net debt.

[invisage] 09/2/2021 19:15

Irish keeps blabbing on about Bp's debt

Reality is at 31st Dec BP had £31.1bn Cash on the balance sheet.





Fear mongering so people sell their shares at a loss........

[invisage] 09/2/2021 19:10

Personally I was surprised the share price dropped back so far today with the divi so close.

Irish

BP closed down 0.86% and Exxon was down about 4% at London Close.

Last night BP was up 6% in the US, the BP ADR is currently off 0.93% in the US

I think it is clear the price action is nor hear or there the past couple of days so stop stoking fear into other holders with misinformation.

[irish luck] 09/2/2021 19:01

Belzoni,
A good well written and balanced post, that sums up the state of the company well atm.

Personally I was surprised the share price dropped back so far today with the divi so close. You would think it would have help steady around the 267 mark.
That little wobble from the US markets caused a sharp drop, probably gave some short sellers a chance to reduce there holding, divi players to buy, who knows, none of us for sure, just speculation.
The signs to watch out for are the American markets, all time highs, will we see profit taking at the month end, hmmm

[belzoni] 09/2/2021 18:41

I hold 10k shares here so it's important for me to be objective. This aint no smallcap, so all the ramping or deramping in the world won't affect the share price in the slightest. As a holder, it saddens me when a discussion thread becomes useless when people's genuine concerns are ignored. It's not a deramp to post ones concerns and short term fears with DETAIL as has been done here.We are all in the same boat, no one wants a room full of yes men - we will all fail badly and I want to hear what people such as Irish, Bracke and Imastu has to say. They are traders in both directions, not just long, which means an objective view on things. I prefer a longer term investment but I do like to keep my eyes and ears open as someone will always spot something you do not. BP has always been a favourite of mine, but for the first time I feel this company has changed. Maybe it will work out well in a few years but I am honestly not sure what to think at the moment, hence I like to hear info / opinions.I was surprised how bad the results were - the price of oil had been quite profitable for a few months prior so must be big losses at the current level of production. Unfortunately I don't see that improving until early summer so I'm at an impasse at what to do at the moment.

[sparsam] 09/2/2021 18:20

Howdy y'all's did people forget BP's your friend. The USA knows this. They don't care about pitchforks and potholes in the graph. They see a cyclical stock that has 50% upside and a compounding interest yoy. Don't sit there with your head in you hands pessimistically waiting for the ride to turn south so you can feel alive somehow. Ride life like a mustang and if you don't like bp, that's fine but just go ride a stock north as negativity will always eat at your soul. Bp will take your soul if you bet against this evolving energy infrastructure company. Bp loves you love it back! There are not many companies left with British in the name. Fight for British! Fight for change and fight for your investment rewards. This could be a tech stock in the not so distant future? Imagine!

[invisage] 09/2/2021 17:21

BP and RDSB rallying hard in the US as is Brent.

New cases of COVID now only 12k today.....the numbers keep dropping....By March these lockdowns should ease not long to go now...

[invisage] 09/2/2021 16:28

I expect a company like BP to be honest with the markets. Trust is very important to a 100+ year old firm, the markets not stupid and BP knows that....they have been transparent with why cash out flow will be larger in 1H due to redundancies...


To the outside world that might sound 'bad' but that is reality and BP have been honest....


That is why share price fell on results day....But no matter Brent has put on 10% since start of Feb .... Market needs to re-price

Brent is avg $55/bbl so far in 2021......BP is working of $40/bbl

Company is well ahead, Price transparency via Oil price makes it easier to invest in companies like BP, you have a reasonable idea of what is going on.

[irish luck] 09/2/2021 16:24

As though there going to post anything bad, come on.