Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[oilretire] 08/2/2019 15:46

II have it showing but not 'settled' so I can't actually do anything with it yet.

[warbaby43] 08/2/2019 15:28

gark, Barclays indicated this morning that the payment would be made today while just now are saying that it will be paid in the next few days.

My A J Bell SIPP account is already showing the dividend payment received.

Like you, I will be closing my Barclays accounts.

[symbo] 08/2/2019 15:16

aj bell sipp deal

[gark] 08/2/2019 11:28

Barclays telling me they have 10 business days to pay into my account. Really rubbish given they charge custody too. Will be closing the account.

[iamthedogman] 08/2/2019 10:04

Yes ..............with Interactive Investor

[invest ted] 08/2/2019 10:02

Haven't yet (Halifax Sharedealing).

[gark] 08/2/2019 10:01

I am with Barclays and haven't received anything.

[hot_topic] 08/2/2019 09:53

Yes - received.

[gark] 08/2/2019 09:50

Has anyone received payment of dividend yet?

[loglorry1] 06/2/2019 20:24

Pressure too high to reinject the gas I was told by Hart back in the day. Also Cameroon Gov want gas used but won't fund any projects to use it eg power generation or fertilizer.

FLNG or a pipeline to FLNG seems the best hope.

[rm137] 06/2/2019 16:46

secs - looking at Noble’s website, the Alen field is across the maritime border in Equitorial Guinea. It certainly isn’t connected to IM as it’s some way north. Does anyone have any information that shows it’s analogous to Etinde, e.g. CGR figures (condensate gas ratio). Gas re-injection schemes work when the condensate yield is high, after a period of liquid production the next step is to re-produce the gas — it’s just the most recovery efficient way of doing it, liquids first then the gas, and is good reservoir management. But it’s a higher cost upfront with injection wells, and gas compression installation. But if the cost recovery PSC terms are set up right to encourage maximum resource recovery then it will economic sense..does anyone know if a Cameroon PSC terms would favour this? Given the government position it would suggest not?

[oilretire] 06/2/2019 16:15

Whatever the deal or whoever it's with, lets hope it completes in 2019

[welshki] 06/2/2019 16:08

"the only buyer is NewAge..."

not lukoil? there are other possibilities surely but agree that only 1 or 2 real strong runners at the moment

and it only takes 2 to start a bidding war, ha! i remember COVE Energy back in 2010 i think. i recall it was a thai company and shell bidding, the share price was about 60p before the first bid and then went to shell about 240p in the end. not saying i expect that here as times were very different now to back then.......but a boy can dream!

either way if new age want something bad enough they have to pay fairly, assigning some value to 2p reserves is standard

i would find it quite surprising if COC have provisionally (which i believe they have) signed a deal with no value on 2p numbers......

[secs in the city] 06/2/2019 15:35

Noble Energy on Alen field next door, analogous but smaller than IM and may be connected to it, they are re-injecting the gas to get the liquids which are the value, kind on undermines what you are saying?

[rm137] 06/2/2019 15:02

welshki, it depends if you’re buying or selling or borrowing, and ultimately on how strong your negotiating position is. In this case, the only buyer is NewAge....

[welshki] 06/2/2019 14:47

surely the 2P numbers will have some value attributed to them?

back in the day just basic OIP used to have a value, how times have changed.......

[rm137] 06/2/2019 08:56

warbaby43, I always follow you posts with interest, but I’d like to respectfully challenge your observation that it is “the liquids not the gas” that should be considered as the primary source of income. In practice, any project needs to generate value from all sources and for Etinde this means gas, LPGs and liquids. Giving away the gas at a break-even, or even loss leading price, simply to produce the liquids erodes value. The primary reliable hydrocarbon stream is gas.. if the project doesn’t make a return from the gas stream, it is squandering the value from it’s most reliable source. Given the scant appraisal from limited well tests, there is considerable uncertainty in the liquids production stream, which is highly dependent on the condensate yield as the reservoir pressure drops. If the field is produced too quickly from limited volumes — which can happen if going for a reduced well count coupled with reservoir complexity, baffling or compartmentalisation that is evident in the IE accumulations, then the drop in reservoir pressure will result in the liquids dropping out in the reservoir. WHen this happens, the contrasting mobility between gas and liquids in the reservoir can lead to condensate banking around wells, which both restricts the liquids production and ultimately the gas production. In short, the liquids production is substantially less certain in these reservoir types, and any development decision taken without a proper understanding of this risk will likely lead to a poor outcome.

Of course none of this would be relevant to Bowleven if the intention is to sell as soon as FID is reached... but it will be relevant to whoever buys the Bowleven share. This will show up in the assessment of 1P Reserves on sanction, which in these instances is often a lot less than the 2P estimates. Since it will be the 1P estimates that any prospective acquirer will pay for, the value of Etinde is very much reduced by any approach that simply concentrates on the liquids.. which for Bowleven will show up in the share price.

In contrast, if a gas sales contract is established for a demonstrable delivery to lets say a 200MW power station, or similar, then the Reserves position is underpinned by that contract. ANd the liquids follow on top. The resultant 1P valuation will be more robust and the valuation of Bowleven similarly more robust.

In a nutshell, the source of value of Etinde is establishing a robust gas sales contract; only then can the Reserves be booked.

[warbaby43] 04/2/2019 15:45

New Age are the drivers and operators here and while it is possible that FID might be postponed pending further drilling to seek out more gas for FLNG, it is far more likely that they will do all they can to get to FID and cash generation to fund Etinde development and further drilling.

New Age are often spoken of as though they are some sort of major or semi major but they ain't and are a very long way from being so. They may be a few notches up the oilie food chain from BLVN but while majors deal in billions, it was seen as a real big deal just a few years back when they raised $500m. Moreover, they have multiple assets to keep financed across multiple countries so they will want cash generation from Etinde just as soon as they can get it.

Also worth keeping in mind that it is the liquids and not the gas that is seen as the primary source of such cash and while FLNG now looks distinctly unlikely they do appear to have alternative destinations in play to dispose of the gas and do appear to have some confidence that one or other of those can be successfully pursued. In this regard, well worth re-visiting the AGM presentation p20-22:

(p11 also interesting on likely news timetabling)

I'll also exercise again the bee in my bonnet on FLNG which while being long odds with bookies I do not regard as being stone dead at this stage. It all depends still on the Cameroon government who made such a song and dance on the FLNG project last June. At present of Etinde's 1.1tcf (pending upgrade), 500bcf/70mmcfd has to be set aside for their still no more than hypothetical 300MW power plant project but if they choose to opt to set aside and postpone that 500bcf requirement for an agreed number of years, they might be able to get that FLNG project, on which they are so keen, under way - just!

[benjimun] 04/2/2019 11:12

It had occurred tome that COC might recognise that the FID will take time due to the disapointing appraisal for the FLNG project. Furthermore given the stock market falls and brexit undertainty the cash derived from the divident could be better put to work elsewhere or ready for a stock marker correction.

[roberto mancini] 01/2/2019 14:37

Call me a cynic,..no way could COC have de-risked by selling 50% of their shares share price would have a cardiac arrest, best way without setting alarm bells off cash return to all shareholders.

[roberto mancini] 01/2/2019 12:55

After the return of cash £50M the balance sheet has what, £13M of cash and investments against a market cap of £59M?

Will FID (£20M) be this year or can we expect it to drag on for several years.

If LUK/NA had offered 45p pre special div most I suspect would have bitten their arm off, they don't appear to be in any hurry to cough up, why might that be?

[welshki] 29/1/2019 15:59

i see what you have tried to do there bob but "pre-divi" levels were 25-27p not 10p......pre-divi = 25-27p, post-divi = 17p......its really that simple

i agree on the FID and this being africa point, but i reiterate my previous point, COC are not fools, they have tens of millions on the line, it does not make sense they would be giving back 50 mil to share holders knowing (or unknowing) that choice would weaken their hand

its all been thought through by proper money men (unlike KH), there is a plan and i bet a set price already agreed with lukoil and/or new age which the rest will be sold for

[roberto mancini] 29/1/2019 15:12

"pre divi levels of 10p"...........again, eh??!! when did that ever happen?

Elementary arithmetic my dear Welshki,..25-27p, a few days before (those in the know) in the lead up to when special div was announced minus special div = 10p.

I hasten to add I was not in the know.

There is no guarantee as to how/if/when FID will be reached, this is Cameroon!