Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[cyan] 14/9/2017 23:29

The $40 MILLION DOLLAR question;

Extract from 2016 annual report;

" Bowleven has access to a further $40 million net drilling and testing carry for two appraisal wells on Etinde (or cash alternative in 2020) and a further $25 million in cash proceeds at FID."

[yasrub] 14/9/2017 21:25

Hi Cyan I hope you are right. Perhaps the partners outlook has changed which is quite likely. Certainly when the old management were involved it was indicated to me that the group were looking at off take without the further 2 drills, but relations shall we say seemed strained.

We will see in due course but all our hopes are aligned in trying to maximise value - the balancing act is the timing and how we get there.

[cyan] 14/9/2017 20:52

Good evening YASRUB. I would be very surprised if the drills do not go ahead as the possible upside is so large; up to 2TCF.
From memory that $40 million is only paid if the drills do not take place within a specified timescale ; was it 2020?. I will have to check later.
Would have to be made an outstanding offer to sell early. We will get a vote in all likely hood.
I think the M & A director will be working on BOMONO disposal initially and that will probably happen before the drills.

[yasrub] 14/9/2017 17:27

Cyan I am not sure there will be further drills within the agreed period and therefore $40m will also be payable - unless some sort of deal is struck with Lukoil. Crown Ocean hold the cards if an offer comes in that they consider fair value in all likelihood they can easily get it through - if they see better value sitting tight then they will do that.

Having said all that - bringing an M&A expert on board and their current holding increasing it does look like something will happen in the short term. They seem to be hoovering up stock as you could easily sell what you wanted today in the 28.75/29 spread.

[gark] 14/9/2017 17:15

Another big after hours trade. They will be at 30% in the next fortnight.

[cyan] 14/9/2017 10:23

My guestimate is that BLVN have at least 17p per share in CASH now.

On 24th March they released a RNS stating that by H2 2017 G & A would be down to $0.35 million per month.

20% of ETINDE plus possible drill result adding 1 to 2TCF AND $25 million payment on FID equates to an awful lot more than the 13p the market seems to add.

I reckon that $25 million is worth about 5.5p alone.

[fft] 14/9/2017 03:44

Makes you wonder who is selling at this point. When owners of a company, who already own a large chunk, are buying it is virtually certain (not guaranteed) that they know it is a good idea. Probably not in the short term.Being finance people, they will have a lot of other opportunities in front of them, but they are choosing blvn. It may take a year, but it is hard to see how there will not be a positive return from this point.

[gark] 13/9/2017 13:14

Lots of late reported trades. CO are mopping up by the looks of things.

[cyan] 13/9/2017 12:01

I would be very surprised if COC took BLVN private. As improbable as me winning the lottery , imo.

[gark] 13/9/2017 10:48

I think they have a stalking horse but from what I have read I believe they are looking to maximise value so I think the price will be higher.

[tiler1] 13/9/2017 10:32

This talk on other BB of COC taking BLVN private seem unlikely to me on the basis that to do so it have to be around 40pps MIN

Once they owned 30% they would need to purchase approx. 225m shares £90M which is around our current market cap

How would they fund it ?

Can they use company funds?

Or do they have a stalking horse ?

[warbaby43] 13/9/2017 10:31

What would be interesting would be COC's average price. True they bought some in the thirties but they would also have been buying in the teens and would have bought a lot in the early twenties, so my guess would be certainly under 30p and likely to be somewhere in the 25-28p bracket.

[gark] 13/9/2017 09:49

Over 26% now and more bought yesterday, looks like they will reach 30% and then we will see action.

[warbaby43] 13/9/2017 07:15

Extension to Bomono f/o negotiations expires on 28th Sept so either news of agreement or another extension must be fairly imminent - the latter might be the better bet.

[gark] 12/9/2017 23:03

Looks like they are buying more at 29p, over 1mn traded. Buy order ongoing .

[gark] 12/9/2017 17:55

Bomono out there already and Etinde too so not sure anything material to worry about and clearly if they want 30% before timelines get stretched now is the time to buy.

[warbaby43] 12/9/2017 17:14

Bearing in mind that they have a representative on the BLVN board, is one implication here that there is no significant price sensitive news in the immediate pipeline?

[fft] 12/9/2017 12:12

Hard to see why they would spend so much money on more shares unless they were very confident that they would see a decent profit. And they should know !!

[cyan] 12/9/2017 12:01

A smart move on their part. We have a decent ball park view of the possible payback ; 20 p plus from where we stand today.
On route to taking control they bought 14 million shares paying 34p each.
BLVN looks like a pretty good investment ; IF you are buying NOW.

[oilretire] 12/9/2017 11:36

Indeed, up over 1% to 25.83%

[gark] 12/9/2017 11:33

Interesting, they are now above 25%, looking to take it up to 30%?

[gark] 11/9/2017 14:16

Never fails to disappoint!