Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[cyan] 18/8/2017 09:37

We an update from the partners. An RNS confirming the reported agreements should be issued. Not enough communication with shareholders.

[ramayer] 14/8/2017 15:27

hxxps://www.prc.cm/en/multimedia/photo-albums/239-cameroon-norwegian-and-chinese-energy-investors-to-create-800-000-new-jobs

[warbaby43] 14/8/2017 07:59

"Our only issue is whether COC are happy to wait or have the financial reserves to wait until appraisal"

Doing what they put on their tin makes far more money for COC than any other course and in their world three/four years would certainly qualify as "short term." Also worth recalling that they pursued, over four years or so, their Eurohypo legal battle with Commerzbank to ensure maximum gain out of that while resisting, no doubt, offers to settle out of court.

[cyan] 13/8/2017 11:46

I think, from memory , that they stated we will get a vote under AIM rule 15.

The upside is so very large that I do not see them wanting to sell pre drill. We are getting much closer to those drills.

BLVN has tons of cash so there is absolutely no issue regarding waiting until our $40 million worth of FREE FULLY CARRIED appraisal drilling is completed. So much cash in fact that some have hoped for a special dividend before now.

The next 12 months could be rather exciting and for BLVN holders, imo, largely risk free.

[symbo] 13/8/2017 10:55

Our only issue is whether COC are happy to wait or have the financial reserves to wait until appraisal. The prize will undoubtedly be larger after appraisal BUT they may well be offered a pre appraisal deal which gives them a good return on their investment and still earns them a few million. As they will have triggered the 30% barrier, we unfortunately will not have a vote on how they proceed. Basically, we will probably have no choice on what the eventual sale price may be, if it ends up as good for COC then we will be forced to accept it as the best deal we can get if they are unable to stay the distance.

[cyan] 12/8/2017 14:36

In January 2017 Bowleven wrote;



Etinde contains sufficient existing discovered resources to support one initial offtake solution. In addition, appraisal drilling is targeting un-risked P90 in-place volumes of up to 2 tcf of gas and associated liquids which, in the event of successful drilling, creates scope for multiple offtake solutions for Etinde.

======================================================================

In march 2016 EDISON wrote this;

"Bowleven holds a 20% interest in the Etinde permit MHLP-7, which contains net contingent P50 resources of 58mmboe (gross contingent resources of 290mmboe). "

and;

"Upside of net prospective resources could add >200mmboe in time Analysis of the data has shown further prospects at the same Intra Isongo interval, while the results of testing at a similar interval at IE-3 tested oil and condensate. Bowleven’s estimates of volumes in place are 1-2tcf (167-333mmboe) at P90 confidence. If we assume a 70% recovery factor for gas this would imply 115-230mmboe. On rough rules of thumb, P50 could be 3x larger than this, equating to 345-690mmboe. Associated liquids will likely add further. We expect wells to be spudded in late 2016/early 2017, but timing remains uncertain, given that Bowleven is no longer the operator and the oil price environment has added material uncertainly. The FID will likely be taken six to nine months after the appraisal wells, so we expect it to be in mid-/late 2017."




+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Reading these comments shows just how important the appraisal drills are and the huge upside POTENTIAL there is. If all goes well our return on a sale of ETINDE will be that much greater. The comments also goes to show our downside ; snails pace progress.

[warbaby43] 11/8/2017 15:02

And on exit possibilities the Open Letter stated

"It will be the responsibility of the proposed new Board members to determine the most beneficial,value maximising route for Etinde - be it accornpanying the development until full production, or adisposal along the way, upon the achievement of certain milestones (appraisal drills, FID, firstproduction). This objective can only be achieved through a constructive dialogue with and suppoftof the JV operator as well as the other partners.

Shareholders should be fully aware that a potential future disposal of Bowleven's stake in Etindewould be conditional on shareholder approval pursuant to AIM rule 15.

With Bowleven becoming an efficient, one-asset company with available tax losses to shelter future taxable income, we view it as a likely scenario that the final monetisation of Etinde would take placein the form of a corporate transaction, i.e. an offer to all shareholders by a third party.

For the avoidance of doubt, we have neither been approached by any third party about their intention to make a bid for the Company nor have there been any discussions with third parties about apotential sale of Bowleven's interest in Etinde. We however believe that a cleaned-up and focused business should become a highty attractive acquisition target in the future."

[warbaby43] 11/8/2017 14:52

With regard to COC's preferences on cash return, recourse to their Open Letter of 17th February seems appropriate:

"Return of Excess Cash: Any cash that a prudent Board deems not required to progressthe Etinde project shoutd be returned to shareholders in a tax-efficient manner, e'g' viashare tenders. This is in contrast to the share buy-back structure initiated by Bowleven inAugust 2016 motivated, in our view, primarily by the Board's self-interest to fend off itslargest and accountability-demanding shareholder from increasing its slake' For theavoidance of doubt, as the single largest shareholder we would at no point support a returnof capital that would put the progruri, development or negotiation position of Etinde at risk"

And

"D, Return of Excess Cash in a Tax-Efficient Manner

We believe, Bowleven should return any "excess" cash to shareholders in a tax-efficient manner. forexample non-manipulative share buy-backs in the form of tender offers.it should be noted that it will be the sole responsibility of the new Board of Directors to optimise theCompany's balance sheet and recommend the route and amount of "excess" cash based on theirdetailed analysis and respecting their duties to safeguard the Company and its assets. Any measure {e.9. the aforementioned tencier offer) recommended by the Board would be subject to shareholder
approval.
For the avoidance of doubt, as the single largest shareholder we would at no point suppoft a returnof capital that would put the progress, development or negotiation position of Etinde at risk."

[cyan] 11/8/2017 13:52

The numbers on ETINDE costs are opaque.

I agree that the sale of ETINDE will be soon after the appraisals results are known. Possible time to sale 12 months minimum , imo.

They could sell before but that would be at a discount to what most believe the asset will ultimately be proved worth.

The EDISON report with its overall valuation of 52p is minus that potential very large upside .

[warbaby43] 11/8/2017 13:22

"In two more African projects costing a total of $3 billion, it plans not only to provide the funding, but also build the production platforms.

"We see a real commitment to FLNG in China both from the construction side and from the LNG consumption side where decreasing costs mean potentially lower cost LNG," said Steve Lowden, chairman of Jersey-based NewAge which is planning FLNG projects off Congo Republic and Cameroon."

If, as seems likely, the Etinde development route includes FLNG then participating in such sums is way beyond BLVN's ambitions and capacity confirming that exit will be post appraisal drills and/or FID

[cyan] 11/8/2017 12:50

A conservative report and the valuation of ETINDE is very slightly north of my minimum $500 million as I posted in 16779.

Those appraisal drills ,maybe in H1 2018, are key and hopefully will add upside.

[cyan] 11/8/2017 12:38

COC are not about the long term running and development of an O & G company.

They are looking for a relatively fast buck. Is it fair to describe the as asset strippers or value investors?

The company BLVN may continue to exist. Aim listings have a value and are more difficult to acquire these days.

I expect that BLVN will be sold off as a shell , one day, after we have had a rather healthy return from this share price level.
Not good for those who paid several pounds though.

[gark] 11/8/2017 12:29

I agree, think they will sell to Chinese.

[cyan] 11/8/2017 12:26

COC were intimating they intended to return excess cash to shareholders by way of a special dividend.

We have not heard any-more about this.
I suspect they are holding on to the cash until after the appraisal drills.

The intent , imo, is to maximise the return on a sale of ETINDE .

If they retain the cash until that point they retain a stronger bargaining position and other options remain available.

I suspect the end result is a complete liquidation of ALL assets with a large return for shareholders.

[warbaby43] 11/8/2017 11:20

The Interfax and CNBC pieces this week have been very positive and reassuring for the direction of travel in which New Age is taking Etinde and the partnership and are causing me, at least, to ponder how many shares BLVN would need to offer to buy back from shareholders and at what price before that became preferable to seeing the money being retained within the company to act as an added sweetener to any prospective purchaser of the corporate entity post drilling and/or FID.

Balance of risk as usual no doubt and also dependent on how much cash remains after the Bomono path becomes clearer and how much might be required to get beyond Etinde FID.

[cyan] 11/8/2017 10:51

Encouraging strength in our share price

Hope COC issues that RNS soon and we will be North of 30p for good , imo.

[pjj71] 10/8/2017 16:08

the oil price flying and bowleven dying.... bring back kev

[cyan] 10/8/2017 09:28

Be nice to see a RNS in next few days confirming agreements between the partners.

[slipanchor3] 09/8/2017 19:54

gark.

I hope you are right but we have got a lot of hurdles to jump before we get to the production stage.
We need FID, long lead items such as a Drilling Rig, Christmas Trees, and maybe an FPSO 12 - 18 Months maybe.

[gark] 09/8/2017 19:33

This is being prepped for the arrival of the FLNG vessel, New Age are a much more professional outfit. Production will commence in H2.

[slipanchor3] 09/8/2017 19:23

Some welcome news today and least we have a possible reason why the share price is ticking up.
We are now awaiting government approval for the preferred LNG project.
Let's hope it doesn't take as long as the exploitation licence, the decree and the gazetting, how long did that take 18 months -2years.
I suppose it will all depend on how many brown envelopes we need to dish out for signatures.