Boeing Share Discussion Threads

[whiterussians] 20/11/2008 10:37

JOB CUTS interactive map

[whiterussians] 20/11/2008 10:12

By Jennifer Ryan and Svenja O'Donnell

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. retail sales fell for a second month in October as rising unemployment and the financial crisis dissuaded shoppers from spending.

Sales fell 0.1 percent on the month after dropping 0.5 percent in September, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The decline was less than the 0.9 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 27 economists. On the year, sales increased 1.9 percent.

Marks & Spencer Group Plc, the U.K.'s biggest clothing retailer, will offer discounts on all apparel and some alcohol today after saying this month that the business climate was the toughest since the early 1990s. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King says that Britain is probably already in a recession.

``The retail environment looks an awful lot worse than these figures suggest given the sales that have been announced at places such as Marks & Spencer,'' said Jeavon Lolay, an economist at Lloyds TSB Group Plc in London. ``Consumer spending will get worse. The Bank of England is still going to be cutting interest rates and we see a 1 percentage point reduction next month.

[westcoastrich] 20/11/2008 08:24

Private-sector consumption in the U.K. is expected to weaken for the second consecutive month in October as economist forecast retail sales to fall another 0.9% following the 0.4% decline in the previous month. Fears of a severe economic downturn has intensified as Great Britain heads into a recession for the first time since 1991.



Trading the News: U.K. Retail Sales

What's Expected
Time of release: 11/20/2008 09:30 GMT, 04:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact : GBPUSD
Expected: -0.9%
Previous: -0.4%

[westcoastrich] 19/11/2008 22:22

Another 1.5% cut to get base rates to 1.5% says me

[westcoastrich] 19/11/2008 22:22

Interest rates will fall again, Bank indicatesLarry Elliott, economics editor guardian.co.uk, Wednesday November 19 2008 18.47 GMT Article historyThe Bank of England sent out a clear message today that interest rates would be cut again next month when it revealed that the nine-strong monetary policy committee considered reducing borrowing costs by more than the 1.5 percentage points it announced earlier this month.

Minutes of the MPC's November meeting showed that Threadneedle Street believed "a very significant reduction in bank rate - possibly in excess of two percentage points - might be required" to prevent inflation falling below the government's 2% inflation target.

The City is now convinced interest rates will be cut by at least 0.5 points from 3% next month, because of the doveish tone of the MPC minutes coupled with a warning from the CBI that UK factories expect to cut output over the next four months at a rate not seen since the early 1980s.

City economists think that the bank rate might even come down to 2% - equalling the lowest it has been in the Bank's 314-year history.

In deciding unanimously for a 1.5 point cut, the Bank said it wanted to see the size of chancellor Alistair Darling's tax and spending boost to the economy in next week's pre-budget report before assessing the required scale of further easing of monetary policy.

The MPC also said it wanted to see whether October's co-ordinated efforts to shore up the banking system had increased the flow of credit and was concerned that a bigger reduction in bank rate would scare the City. "Too large a surprise could pose upside risks to the inflation target if the resulting depreciation of sterling was excessive," it said.

Apart from the emergency cut in interest rates on the day following Black Wednesday in September 1992, this month's move was the most aggressive action since the early 1980s.

The minutes revealed that the MPC was concerned that the markets would think it had gone soft on inflation and wanted to leave some of the easing of policy until after it had had the chance to explain its view that the financial turmoil this autumn had markedly changed the outlook for prices.

Some MPC members thought there was an argument for the Bank reserving some of its firepower so it would be able in "the months ahead to support confidence as the economy weakened."

David Kern, the chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, said: "The latest MPC minutes confirm a radical change in attitude. As demand prospects in the economy have deteriorated and inflation is set to plunge well below target, the MPC correctly acknowledge the need for sharp interest rate cuts.

"Businesses are now facing acute pressures in the face of a worsening recession. We urge the MPC to persevere with a forceful line and cut rates to 2.5% in December."

The CBI's monthly snapshot of industry showed that UK manufacturers are planning to retrench after seeing demand for their goods plummet as a result of the worsening global financial and economic crisis.

Showing no positive effects from the recent sharp depreciation in the value of the pound, firms said the weakness of domestic and export order books was forcing them to plan production cuts.

Capital Economics, a forecasting and consultancy firm, said that if the survey was accurate there was a risk of a double-digit fall in manufacturing output next year, in line with the drop seen in the deep recession of 1974-75.

The CBI urged the Bank of England to take advantage of tumbling inflation to cut interest rates.

Further evidence that price pressure was abating came from the CBI's monthly industrial trends survey and from a rival employers' organisation, the EEF, which said a quarter of manufacturing firms had deferred settlements or frozen pay during the past three months.

Ian McCafferty, the CBI's chief economics advisor, said: "The outlook for manufacturers has deteriorated considerably since the banking crisis took a turn for the worse in October. Expectations for output are now the gloomiest in 28 years, while firms' order books remain weak. With a sharper and more prolonged UK recession in prospect, conditions are going to remain tough for some time."

The CBI found that only 14% of firms expected to raise output over the next four months while 56% planned to cut production. That left a balance of -42 points, the lowest since 1980.

Order books edged up slightly from October, but remained at their weakest for five years. Companies have also amassed large stockpiles of unsold goods, with a balance of +25 points reporting that their inventories were more than adequate to meet expected demand.

Paul Dales, the UK analyst at Capital Economics, said: "The survey provides yet more evidence that the downturn in activity is not confined to the financial, construction and retail sectors."

He said the forecast for factory production was "consistent with output falling by around 10% per annum compared to the current rate of decline of 2%. This would be a larger drop than the 7% drop seen in the early 1990s and similar to the 12% drop in the 1974-75 recession."

The biggest post-war slump in manufacturing occurred in 1980 and 1981, when output fell by about 25%.

[westcoastrich] 16/11/2008 09:25

Commentary from an economist (12 November)
Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight: [Following a gloomy quarterly inflation report] We currently forecast the Bank of England to cut interest rates by a further 50 basis points from 3% to 2.5% in December and to bring them down to 1.5% in the first half of 2009. However, the extremely dovish tone of the inflation report suggests that there is a very strong possibility that the December cut will be bigger than 50 basis points and that interest rates could come all the way down to 1%, or conceivably even lower, in 2009. Significantly, Mervyn King [Bank governor] commented that "we are prepared to use bank rate to whatever level is necessary to ensure that the prospect for CPI inflation is that it will return to the 2% level in the medium term." '

[westcoastrich] 16/11/2008 09:08

A mortgage advisor checks out loans on offer

[moob] 14/11/2008 10:10

Its been too long since the last cut, an emergency 1% cut NOW

and why have such a PLUMMy old chap quintesentiually english happy clappie at the tiller of thebank of england?

[westcoastrich] 12/11/2008 20:26

id suggest shoving it in a fixed rate bond, you can just about get a three year fix at around 6% from skipton and chelsea b/s. HSBC willgive you 5% five year fix.


let it snow let it snow let it snow

[anubus] 12/11/2008 12:21

to white russian
should interest rates go to 0% as you appear to recommend please explain how you expect me as a low income pensioner with about 30000 in savings and dependent on the income from this to pay some of my bills, continue to survive ??????

[whiterussians] 12/11/2008 11:58

The Bank of England says the UK entered a recession in the middle of 2008 which will continue through 2009.

In its quarterly inflation report, the Bank warns that the economic landscape has changed dramatically since August.

It now expects inflation to decline to 1% by 2010, below its 2% target, in a dramatic change to its last forecast.

This could open the way for further interest rate cuts if the Bank is to maintain inflation at its target rate in two years' time.

"We are certainly prepared to cut bank rate again if that becomes necessary," said Mervyn King, the Bank of England's governor.




---

Well said Merv the Perv, now chop em to 0% quick

[westcoastrich] 12/11/2008 07:22

Interest rate 'to hit all-time low'
7 hours ago

Interest rates could fall to an all-time low to drag the UK out of a deep recession, the Bank of England's latest forecasts are set to show.

Its latest quarterly estimates for growth and inflation - the first since the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered a global crisis in September - are likely to paint a bleak picture of the UK's economic prospects.

The Bank slashed rates by 1.5% to 3% last week - their lowest level since 1955 - because of a "substantial risk" of undershooting its 2% inflation target as recession looms.

Many experts now predict borrowing costs to fall below the all-time low of 2% - last seen in 1951 - as the Bank battles against recession.

The Bank's inflation measure, the Consumer Prices Index, currently stands at 5.2% - more than double the official 2% target.

But this is set to fall rapidly next year as oil, energy and food costs recede and a recession impacts on demand.

IHS Global Insight economist Howard Archer said: "We expect the forecasts to show that CPI is likely to significantly undershoot its 2% target on a two-year horizon at current interest rate levels, thereby leaving the door wide open for further marked reductions in interest rates over the coming months."

Mr Archer predicts rates falling to 1.5% by the middle of next year with CPI slowing to 0.5% - the lowest for eight years.

The latest projections are set to show how sharply prospects for the UK economy have declined in the past three months.

The Bank's August forecast - which predicted flat growth next year - was gloomy enough, but the worst crisis to hit the banking sector for more than a century is now sending the UK headlong into recession.

[moob] 09/11/2008 20:32

Also on Wednesday, figures from the Office for National Statistics are expected to show that UK unemployment rose again in October as the country braces itself for a recession.

[gsands] 08/11/2008 17:19

Interesting research.

Understandable I suppose that lenders do not want to stick their necks out on over valued properties.

However, onerous rates of this type just serve to push the market lower.

Result - a self fulfilling phrophecy, just like on the way up when borrowers and lenders were falling over themselves to get a piece of the 'action'.

Markets: nothing ever changes because people never change.

Fear and greed.

[moob] 08/11/2008 10:25

interesting selection of BTL mortgages from nationwide




arrangement fees still 3% plus

no discounted rates - cheapest is 2.5% over base, worst is 3.8% over base

all come with 5% to 7% redemption penalty if repaid early

max LTV 70%


No wonder prices are falling if mortgage products are this onerous. I could take a few out - but think i'll pass.

Stick with the BTLs I bought a decade ago.

Thank u.

[poppadomonlinedotcom] 06/11/2008 23:17

Rate should go to 1% for 2years.

[moob] 06/11/2008 22:52

James Knightley, an ING economist, expects more aggressive rate cuts, with the Bank's base rate down to 2.5 per cent in December and 2 per cent in January.

Howard Archer, an economist at Global Insight, said it was possible interest rates could come down to 1.5 per cent by mid-2009.

He said: "This reflects our belief that the economy will contract up to, and including, the third quarter of 2009 before stabilising. We expect GDP to contract by 1.5 per cent overall in 2009."

Mr Archer said today's larger than expected cut to 3 per cent was justified given the UK economy was now in "grave danger of suffering a prolonged, deep recession".

"Furthermore, mounting evidence that underlying inflationary pressures are now moderating significantly gave the Bank scope for aggressive action," he added.





Bring it on BABY!!

[moob] 06/11/2008 21:27

rates should go to 1% imho

[gsands] 06/11/2008 21:00

Well well well.....the penny has finally dropped...

[moob] 06/11/2008 00:23

Cut base rate to 3pc, urges MPC guru
A founding member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee has called for an unprecedented one and a half percentage point interest rate cut.

[moob] 04/11/2008 07:44

1% or not?

will they or wont they?