CT Property Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 06/1/2021 14:18

Fair point on paid already, tho so many are monthly now. ST had something about the possible wall of CVAs with c.£4.6bn rent outstanding already (figs may be misremembered). And now Boris talking about lockdown until Easter.

On the plus side - all the small REITs got through previous lockdowns, they'll get through this one.

(I know it's a banks/oils/Biden bounce, but +230 FTSE with no REITs move is a little naff.)

[nickrl] 05/1/2021 10:16

This qtr is always poor for hotels and leisure anyhow so if they can dump all there staff costs on furlough might actually suit some of them. Premier Inn isn't going under and with Travelodge having done a deal already that is factored in. UK holidays will be only real possibility this year I suspect for majority so best do a deal on turnover for Q2/Q3 then if you want a reduction/nil rents this qtr would be my response.

Also rents were due on 25/12 so how many have already paid anyhow although usual warning thats no guide to future payments of course. Short term I see vaccine positivity as supressing the negativity of this lockdown and im starting to reset my entry points upwards on stocks like this as I don't see them falling back to what I wanted.

[hugepants] 05/1/2021 08:55

Spec, Why does long lease or short lease matter? The point is the government has effectively closed hotels and leisure. There is no hotel business now. There is no income so you expect hotel owners to continue to pay all rent? Maybe AIRE can try and play hard ball but that wont go down well. They are business partners at the end of the day. I see Premier Inns have said they will pay half rent from now on. That may be the norm for now.

[spectoacc] 04/1/2021 19:06

@HP - RDI I agree, but AIRE's long leases secure it - it's either CVA or pay up, not easily walked away from. But I've a vested interest in saying that :) (It's also cheap, with a potential stakebuilder looking to pick up lower down).

@nickrl - "..By next qtr there will be much more certainty over where we are headed..".
Agreed, and also the market always looks ahead, but - I wouldn't count on the where-we-are-headed being particularly rosy, based on likely vaccine run-rate & this new variant. Boris's new lockdown tonight won't be much harsher than the original, and that won't stop it.

To be fair, it's not going to kill the REITs. But would you want to be in a pubco, airline, travel co? Who on earth has been buying Carnival shares over Xmas?

[hugepants] 04/1/2021 18:18

Im comfortable with BREI but sold my small holdings in RDI and AIRE today due to their relatively high hotels/leisure weighting. Those plus indoor shopping centres probably most likely to withhold rent over the next 3 months?

[nickrl] 04/1/2021 16:51

Specto for sure I suspect the retail/leisure centric propcos will probably have a bit of setback on collection levels this qtr but other sectors will hold up. What I would look out for though is how many are potentially having to further defer previously agreed payment plans. I also suspect leases renewals outside of logistics will continue to be at lower than propcos reversionary ERVs if they want to retain tenants.
Negativity out the way the vaccine is coming and by next qtr there will be much more certainty over where we are headed so market is looking beyond this which i didn't do on BREI as I was holding out for 55 and that boat has well truly sailed.

[skyship] 04/1/2021 14:31

Well, I bought a few of your perhaps as I added first thing today.

The two best value REIT plays seem to me at the moment to be BREI & MCKS:

# BREI at 61.2p = 35.4% discount

# MCKS at 197.5p = 36.9% discount

EDIT: Ah, BREI have been moving. Now at 63p for a 33.5% discount...

[spectoacc] 04/1/2021 11:03

Been a seller of BREI (& a few others) today. Not sure when the FTSE gets its hangover, but can't say I'm feeling the same level of bullishness as the markets are.

My sells having no effect on BREI, which should mean it's going higher for the rest of you :)

I don't trust What Boris Does Next.

Good luck holders.

[spectoacc] 30/12/2020 19:14

As a holder of both - depends what you want. AIRE is cheaper IMO, better quality, with inflation protection. But it's smaller, prone to being illiquid, and far more concentrated portfolio than BREI. I like them both, but for different reasons.

[apollocreed1] 30/12/2020 16:55

What's better-BREI or AIRE? THANKS

[spectoacc] 30/12/2020 15:33

Most of the smaller REITs still look good value to me, including BREI. As for the many co's & ITs hitting 12 month highs - hmmm. I know it's Xmas, but there's a lot of froth around.

[nickrl] 29/12/2020 21:42

Huge odd that this one didn't participate in todays upswing but nearly back at the 40% discount so may have a dabble tomorrow. The yield isn't that great since it was cut but even with its recent increase at least its covered which always put me off these. Should be NAV update early Jan but given they've suffered all year on rents on retail (not the park) even a more significant Tier 4 expansion / lockdown shouldn't materially impact rental collection rates imv.

[hugepants] 29/12/2020 16:07

This is far too cheap on a 35%+ discount to NAV. Very low ltv, chunky dividend, great portfolio mix etc etc.

[skyship] 23/12/2020 13:59

Taken the unexpectedly quick turn at 59.6p...

[hindsight] 23/12/2020 12:58

Find it hard to get orders filled on book here, and always seems such wide spread on MM quotes

[essentialinvestor] 23/12/2020 12:09

Well overdue.

[playful] 23/12/2020 11:54

You timed that well!

[skyship] 23/12/2020 08:12

Back in for a few @ 57.15p - Discount up to 39.7%

[hindsight] 20/12/2020 11:44

I find sometimes have to do a search for weekend markets in thier search box

[spectoacc] 20/12/2020 11:24

@Skyship - hopefully this one will work:


Their minus number isn't from actual close.

[skyship] 20/12/2020 09:23

Specto - the link below doesn't seem to operate at weekends. Could you post yr link pls - thnx.

[chuckol] 20/12/2020 09:22

Yeah. A happy New Year to you too, and don't bother to come back, with your repetitive spurious logic and constant trolling on 70+ threads.

And make sure you are better behaved in the lockdown supermarkets. Those "Stasi" shop assistants as you call them might turn on you and chuck you on to the pavement.

I might come to their aid: that's why I'm called chucko, OK?

[spectoacc] 20/12/2020 08:49

Not sure how much effect the new Tier 4 will have - market has been looking ahead, and the Oxford vaccine should both get approved and be starting to be administered from the end of this month, gearing up in Jan.

Agree the cyclical junk is nuts - RTN, IAG, RR etc. Priced for perfection (ie no more Covid) when you add in the dilution, in all cases, to get through 2020.

(Another reason possibly little effect from Tier 4 - surely everyone expected another national lockdown in January anyway. Which we'll still likely get.)

The only new news seems to be "new strain, more infectious".

EU deal looks likely to run to 31st Dec, I reckon that's priced in.

IG had the FTSE called down about 20 points last I looked, tho that can change.

In case I don't post again prior, a Merry & healthy Christmas to all my ADVFN co-conspirators - a pleasure to have so many knowledgeable posters on the REIT BBs.

[essentialinvestor] 19/12/2020 23:58

Hi Nick, my own view is some prices look ahead of events,
particularly in more cyclical sectors.
In terms of UK REITS, it's not a time to be gung-ho.