CT Property Share Discussion Threads

[starpukka] 04/7/2022 22:33

SpectoAcc. Just seen your reply. Yes, looking a bit that way right now. haha.

[spectoacc] 01/7/2022 06:51

@starpukka - mouldy? ;)

[starpukka] 30/6/2022 21:54

Disappointed as I can't think of this as my 'Cheese' stock now anymore.

[skyship] 30/6/2022 21:29

Name change comes into force tomorrow - so with HP's permission I've started a new thread - charts will hopefully start as tomorrow.

[spectoacc] 30/6/2022 19:29

Not sure I'd use measly - 4.75% at 84p. But agree it's due a tick up, and having paid out 1p/qtr for 4 quarters now, would hope it'll be rising soon.

(UKCM pays 0.8p/qtr, or 4.2% on a 75p s/p. BCPT pays 0.4p/month, or 4.3% at 112p s/p. PCTN pays 0.875p/qtr, or 3.9% at 89p s/p. There's higher, like SREI or AEWU, but BREI isn't out of line).

On a similar theme, market falls means more choices - eg PSN (gulp) on 12.6%.

[speedsgh] 30/6/2022 17:15

That yield is pretty measly, even when it's trading at a 30%+ discount to NAV

[spectoacc] 30/6/2022 13:28

Some interesting office comment from them in that update, & feels like they're on top of things - ie that CapEx is needed just to stand still with offices:


"The Company's Office
properties (21.8 per cent of portfolio value) delivered a negligible valuation
uplift with asset management key in supporting capital values. Most notably,
the refurbished second floor 'Plug & Play' suite at Berkeley Street, London was
let on a new 5-year lease ahead of ERV, cementing a strong rental tone and
resulting in the asset benefitting from full occupation. The asset's income
profile was further enhanced by the (post period) settlement of the outstanding
March 2020 rent review on the ground floor car showroom, which settled at a
meaningful premium to passing rent. While the core Office centres and prime
assets are benefitting from both occupier and investor's 'flight to quality',
capital values remain constrained on assets with latent leasing or capital
expenditure risk. Company performance reflected this in respect of some of the
South East and Rest of UK office assets, as a consequence of the inclusion of
prudent capital expenditure and reletting assumptions by the Company's
independent Valuers."

[captainpanakin1] 30/6/2022 13:25

Surely with property yields set to rise in most sectors the best use of their cash would be buybacks - who doesn't want to make a near 50% instant gain by turning 83p into 128p??

[hugepants] 30/6/2022 09:36

I didn't realise BREI was so low in offices now. Sector weightings as of last trading update are;

Offices 21.8
Industrial, logistics and distribution 54.3
Standard Retail 5.7
Retail Warehouse 18.2

It's on a 34% discount to NAV now and 4.7% yield. LTV only 23.5%.

[spectoacc] 30/6/2022 08:46

Something can fall 7% pa for ever, in theory :) But agreed - as much on the notion that they think they can see out for 10 years.

Haven't seen the note - quote was from:


"“Recession will likely lead office occupancy and market rental values to decline and property prices to fall apart,” the bank said in a research note."

"Cheap money and ultra-low bond yields have allowed investors to outbid one another for property, which for a number of years has been one of the few asset classes that has offered a reasonable return."


Could apply the last paragraph to all property, particularly BREI's Industrial. Yet to read SREI's RNS this morning shows how rental growth is catching up with capital values. ie it's not as per that last para - all yield compression - it's demand-led, at least in Industrial where it's structural..

I hope :)

Not forgetting the huge discounts.

[skyship] 30/6/2022 08:43

7%pa for 10yrs = wipeout! Well, down by over 50%...

Obviously mis-reported; or a teenage scribbler doesn't understand basic maths.

[spectoacc] 30/6/2022 06:49

Re yesterday's major d/g:

"Investors took fright after analysts at Bank of America did an about-turn on their view of the office sector amid a “perfect storm” of factors weighing on the outlook and cut its earnings forecasts for office landlords by 7 per cent a year for the next ten years."


Seems a bit extreme - minus 7% pa for a decade - but agree with them that offices are not the place to be. Not quite the new Retail, but not far off.

Not a worry for BREI, not that you'd know it from the s/p.

[nickrl] 29/6/2022 18:54

Specto agree using capital for divis isn't great especially as valuations bound to tread water for rest of year until more certainty as to where economy is headed not that im a fan of buybacks either.

[spectoacc] 29/6/2022 14:24

Not keen on divis from capital and on this massive discount, surely buybacks far more accretive. But yes, a divi rise would be nice too.

If we think BREI's struggling - BLND off 8%, LAND off 6% today, just on a d/g.

[skyship] 29/6/2022 13:10

Rather then buybacks I would prefer an increased dividend, even if a small %age out of capital.

I consider buybacks a temporary DCM, whereas a good yield is a more permanent DCM.

[spectoacc] 29/6/2022 12:25

Agreed, other than EBOX it's the most unloved on my list. Interesting to see the effect of buybacks on eg API's price chart, something perhaps BREI could learn from.

[alan pt] 29/6/2022 12:22

Not much love out there in the market for BREI, looks like it might be grit your teeth and wait a month or so for a NAV update to hopefully lift it

[spectoacc] 29/6/2022 10:48

They've got to come down again. But point being made is that new supply isn't going to be what hits Industrial, as it has been so often in the past. Makes me think we'll continue to grind higher - the rise in Industrial is structural IMO (with rents lagging, but catching up).

[hindsight] 29/6/2022 10:46

Land costs are a variable controlled by price - build costs. In 2010 they halved

[spectoacc] 29/6/2022 07:35

Guess the difference is demand - seemingly never-ending for Industrial, whereas Office looks like the potential next Retail (at least "tired" Office - tho there's tired Industrial too).

[skyship] 29/6/2022 07:29

In the Office space RGL is constantly reminding us of the valuation discounts to replacement costs - far higher than the 20% inferred above. So I suspect it's true across all sectors and all companies. Barring a serious recession it will help underwrite NAVs.

[spectoacc] 29/6/2022 06:55

Comments on Industrials from SHED were interesting:


"‘This demand-side pressure has led to a response on the supply side, as more project starts have been recorded in 2021 as compared to 2020,’ he said.

‘Nevertheless, the constraints on supply are not easy to surmount as planning for this class is not easy to come by. In addition, build costs have been rising sharply, as has the cost of suitable land, leading new space coming to market at well over £150 per square feet – which is exceptionally high when considered as a replacement value for our stock which is currently valued at £122 per square feet.’"


Not sure where BREI's Industrials would sit on the cost scale, but agree on land/construction costs.

[skyship] 27/6/2022 12:24

Ahh - of course - thnx.

[horseyphil] 27/6/2022 12:11

Columbia Threadneedle who bought out BMO.

[skyship] 27/6/2022 12:06

Anyone know why CT Property Trust? To what is the CT referring?