Bluejay Mining Share Discussion Threads

[bigboyblue] 22/11/2020 15:58

Licence/MoU/Why the November deadline?

I think we all agree that the licence and the offtake should ideally come together. An offtake is no use without a licence and the licence is of limited value, at least in the short term, without an offtake. I can suggest 3 possibilities as to where we are:

1. The MoU has come to nothing and RM is waiting for some good news to go with the bad. I hope that's not the case and I don't think it's likely. I'll give it 20%.

2. The MoU is done and Rod, in his unfailing optimism, thought the licence would be ready in 4 weeks. It isn't and there will be a further delay. This sounds pretty familiar and must be considered quite likely. I'll give it 50%.

3. The MoU is done and RM was given the heads up from the authorities that the licence would come by the end of this week, and that's why he went for the 4 week delay rather than end of Dec. This would be very good news. I'll give it 30%.

The share price reaction to news is always something of a mystery to me so I'll defer to others on the likely effect of any of the above.

(PS, memo to shutittrev: in the event of number 3 above I hope you still have those Pampas)

[snowyflake] 22/11/2020 11:49

luffness - I do not think that the expectation is priced in. imo the market will react when it is announced and not as it is now touted as an expectation.

The same point Dr Maccers - talk is cheap. The board needs to walk the walk. A confirmed announcement of signatures to contracts will be worth an uplift in the share price and they could be worth quite a lot- talk of dreams alone and bullish tweets will not.

[drmaccers] 22/11/2020 11:14

So what's a signed offtake for $75mill/year ilmenite worth to us with about $25mill more to come?If it's coupled with project finance? 20p+? Mining license, optimisation study and Disko JV to Rio/AAL? 30p?Also Thunderstone JV to Orano and drill results. Finland drill results etc

[luffness] 22/11/2020 11:13

Expectations for a licence built in?Not sure they are - assuming no value for any licences other than Dundas and say 500m tonnes of ilmenite there which is conservative current value for JAY is 20p per ton - seems a bargain to me

[snowyflake] 22/11/2020 10:59

Thank you squiresquire.

[squiresquire] 22/11/2020 10:23

BigBoyBlue

many thanks for thumbs up to the Mining Act, i have put link in header.

[johnveals] 21/11/2020 21:28

Aljohara - your recent posting history speaks volumes.

[snowyflake] 21/11/2020 19:36

Aljohara - I fully understand your sentiments - enough said!

[snowyflake] 21/11/2020 18:56

BBB - I am very much in agreement with you and have followed Finn Aust (now Bluejay) since end 2015 and been invested since March 2016 and added thereafter.

If one has doubt about any of RM's estimates and by Jove I have learned to over the past 2-3 years, I think that the authorities will grant the exploitation permit in the near term. The share price in my view will not really react until we have the permit and then again when there is a definite off take (not just an MoU) and further when there is finance to exploit Dundas (unless of course the permit allows for the sands after initial process to be moved in specie to say RTIT in Sorel-Tracy). It amounts to the old adage - walk the walk is far preferable to talk the talk.

We might be pleasantly surprised if there is a firm JV to explore Disko (my goodness there has been enough said about it to warrant a JV provided RM's expectations on our behalf are reasonable) and then with the permission of the authorities to exploit Disko.

Do bear in mind that one of the finest decisions made has been to bring in the Danes; I note from the 2019 accounts that Bo Moller Stensgaard is on a respectable salary. It is worthwhile taking another look at the interviews recently included on the company's website.

[bigboyblue] 21/11/2020 16:34

Aljohara: I have held here since Jan 2017 and have full experience of RM's delays and unjustified expectations. My average is 16.8p. However I feel you misrepresent the current situation. The 'Greenland government person' you refer to is the Prime Minister and the words he used were '.......that will soon start is also Dundas Titianium's project in Moriusaq in the northernmost part of Greenland. The Naalakkersuisut EXPECTS to grant them an exploitation permit before the end of the year.' (my emphasis)

Edit: the announcement did have an effect on the share price
Sept 28th (day of the announcement but after our trading day) 7.8p
Sept 29th 7.93p
Sept 30th 8.37p
Oct 1st 9.35p. There was then a couple of days retrace

I remain wary of anything RM promises, but I am very confident about the licence. I believe the licence news is substantially built into the share price, but that if an offtake is announced at around the same time that will make a substantial difference.

[mach100] 21/11/2020 15:57

Past performance is no guarantee of future success is the caveat attached to all investing Aljohara so maybe we can give some leeway for past disappointments too. It is good to be wary but the markets can only look ahead so far. Been buying myself since Dec 19 and my average is 7.88p. I remember JAY being 5.88p to buy at one stage in 2020 so I guess it depends where you put your starting flag on how well Jay has performed. I am still a buyer here as I think it is in the right place. I am also sure that those buying now have a higher chance of success here in reward terms than those who wait for further milestones before buying.

[aljohara] 21/11/2020 15:18

Once again we are in positive mode regarding Jay where expectations abound. Elsewhere the question has been asked as to whether it's promises or expectations re. the licence approval. All I can say is that if there has been any promises they've all been empty ones and as for expectations well they are all held by the likes of us. The market doesn't appear to have any imminent expectations else we wouldn't be where we are today with such a poor share price as the market is almost always ahead of the game as we know.
If the "expectation " of a licence is already built in, even in part then we're in for something of a shock.
The recent announcement by the Greenland government person intimating Dundas as another soon to be mining operation was not a promise or even an expectation and had no impact to the share price
Something drastic has to happen for JAY to give shareholder value and after so many years of delivering very little I wonder how many more years we are going to have to wait? Answers on a postcard please.

[snowyflake] 21/11/2020 11:30

Thank you BBB for the link in your post immediately above.

I think that if squiresquire does take you up on your helpful suggestion (with which I very much agree) that he incorporates the link in the header, he should make it clear that it is an unofficial consolidation of the Act.

[bigboyblue] 21/11/2020 10:10

I don't think I've posted this before, but the Mineral Resources Act is the basis for all legal aspects of mining in Greenland:

This translation incorporates all amendments to the Act. Of particular relevance to recent discussions is S16(3). This is one area where JAY planned ahead very well and were no doubt guided by the authorities in Greenland.

Also relevant is S18(1) and 18(2) which covers Greenlandic labour and services, and which recognises that some will be imported. As mentioned previously, the licence will stipulate the extent to which domestic labour must be used and no doubt this has been one of the details under discussion.

See also S18(3). I know some here are of the firm view that we would be better off processing elsewhere.

Squiresquire: it might be worth including the above link in the header here.

[moreminer] 21/11/2020 08:47

Kemismelt

GO AWAY
GO AWAY
GO AWAY

[kemismelt] 21/11/2020 08:37

bbb@8750:

TZMI's projection is for the middle quality ilmenite [53%TiO2] like that exported by LON:KMR for ~US$240/MT. The high end of market is for 61%TiO2 feedstock like that sold by IREL Ltd for ~US$270/MT from India and the low end is like that huge smeltable ilmenite 'still in the frozen ground' with LON:JAY which can at best get ~US$180/MT f.o.b. The American punters know this as much as RTIT or they would have been in 'ques' at OTCQB counters for the BLLYF scrip! LON:JAY has to be realistic to segregate DUNDAS TITANIUM A/S from its other forays in time to get real investors to push FS2021 work and get money to the long-waiting PIs ASAP.

[bigboyblue] 21/11/2020 07:54

A minor point, but regarding the discussion about the MOU, the deadline is actually a week today, not on Tuesday. Original date 31st July, 3 month extension to 31st Oct, 4 week extension (announced on 27th Oct) takes it to 28th Nov.

[bigboyblue] 21/11/2020 07:04

In case anyone missed it yesterday, from the Proactive Investors site:

'Bluejay Mining* (LON:JAY) 10.54p, Mkt cap £102m – Rising expectations for titanium dioxide demand to tighten market for feedstock

BUY - Valuation 27.4p

News from the recent TZMI virtual congress indicates a growing supply/demand gap as mine interruptions struggle to meet demand

There is an expectation that forecasts for a 3% fall in demand may be revised to reflect a faster than expected return to the growth previously expected.

This combined with lower mine production due to falling grades, expansion delays and a lack of new projects to replace closing mines is causing concern amongst buyers of ilmenite concentrate feedstock.

Stronger pigment production is tightening inventory levels in the supply chain with smelters working to catch up with demand for titanium dioxide.

Latest projections indicate feedstock demand growth levels are delayed by a couple of years leading to a potential short term surplus in the market.

Demand from Chloride slag producers is expected to lead growth in feedstock demand assuming the Jizan smelter successfully commissions leading to an expectation for 1.7% GAGR each year.

Forecasts suggest a significant gap may open up in the market from 2025 unless new mine production comes to the market.

The market expects a reduction in sulphate pigment supply but with increasing demand for beneficiation.

Overall demand for sulphate ilmenite is seen as increasing +66% from 2019 to 2024

China is likely to continue to buy in ilmenite feedstock as domestic supply falls amid continued growth in chloride beneficiation.

Production of chloride slag continues to grow requiring further imported feedstock

Iluka expects inventory to build in the market this year but expects this to unwind in 2021

Conclusion: Bluejay’s Dundas ilmenite project looks well timed to supply into a forecast deficit and higher ilmenite prices

*SP Angel act Nomad and broker to Bluejay.'

[snowyflake] 20/11/2020 12:18

Done so davroc.

[copper copper] 20/11/2020 11:36

Well said davroc. Kemi is a very good fisherman. Every time he casts his line he gets a lot of bites. Just ignore the bate!!

[davroc] 20/11/2020 11:23

This once sensible board has gone into Kemis meltdown. Would you all please stop conversing with the troll and put him on filter.Rant over.

[luffness] 20/11/2020 11:08

"If we insist..."It is fact and you are a clown

[snowyflake] 20/11/2020 10:58

If kemismelt did approach Rod McIllree for whatever reason and was rebuffed by RM, I for one do not blame RM for one moment.