Blue Prism Share Discussion Threads

[fuji99] 06/12/2018 13:31

It has just tested the previous resistance levels.

[fuji99] 06/12/2018 13:17

Today price doesn't make any difference when one settles on a long term hold. Knowing well how the share price moves either side, when the tide turns around, share price daily increments will be +£1 to +£1.5. The share price is spiky in both directions ...

[fcuky] 06/12/2018 12:54

Olhoo....

Are you seriously that daft?

£100 was OBVIOUSLY A SCARCASTIC COMMENT.

You people are a laugh.

[olh00] 06/12/2018 12:50

fc, your valuation estimates seem to be solely based on current share price trends rather than fundamental analysis. I remember you had a price target of £100 not too long ago. Perhaps a little hypocritical to accuse others of “pushing other people down the fire”

[fcuky] 06/12/2018 10:23

Here is some news:

In the latest reporting, BP lossess WIDENED (massively).

[fuji99] 06/12/2018 10:04

FC - My optimism is mine only. Time will tell anyway.
Here is some news.

[fcuky] 06/12/2018 09:49

Fuji

Your optimism is misplaced, and is pushing people down the fire

See you at 800p

[fcuky] 06/12/2018 09:48

Its going down for real!

[fuji99] 06/12/2018 08:18

IMO the recovery in the US this afternoon will affect positively most of the UK stocks. PRSM will be one of them as Nasdaq was down more than 3%.

[sogoesit] 06/12/2018 08:13

Thank you dannyboylife.
A bit of realism in the equation but, as forex20 says, putting a valuation on the strategy it states as an objective is difficult/impossible in the short term.
Like religion, we believe it or we don’t.
My fear is that it gets taken out too early or at a “prematureR21; price on weakness.

[forex20] 05/12/2018 23:47

What to make of an exponentially growing company with blue chip contracts and a future akin to Microsoft in the early 90’s...

[fcuky] 05/12/2018 22:53

Advice?

Bail, bail now.

[dannyboylife] 05/12/2018 20:48

Sogoesit. Good analysis. I think you are right, acquisition costs will go up because of increased competition. Increased competition brought about by lower differentiation combined with decreased license pricing. Hard to go up from here and I would prefer less high quality customers than UI path more customers at lower quality.

The per transaction model is a dream that rarely get through procurement. I was on the buy side of large enterprises for longer than the sales side and we would entice the vendor with this model but use it to screw price at "final selection" time. I saw this work was for our outsourcers but we are now seeing the BPOs using their own RPA like software because they are cheap buyers / "not invented here".

[kidknocked] 05/12/2018 18:56

Davros. I think that's pretty sensible advice. This is a good growth company but in a definite downtrend. Coupled with uncertainty around Brexit I think it's worth keeping cash on the sidelines for now. To be a buy this needs to be about 20 percent higher from where we are now, and sustained for at least a month I'd say. Hope that helps.

[davr0s] 05/12/2018 18:44

The value guys will probably say yes, but I trade and for me it's a no go as its in a down trend and they can persist for a lot longer than you think

[sogoesit] 05/12/2018 18:26

sunnysides implies that they may also be on the wrong market.
A US quote would be more challenging but ultimately more rewarding, or more transparent, price discovery wise imv.

Anyway, there may be more fundamental issues.
Customer growth rates, from the TU, appear to have slowed, surprisingly:
Year-on-Year
1H17/1H16 : 3.01x
FY17/FY16 : 3.12x
1H18/1H17 : 2.58x
FY18/FY17 : 2.08x (from TU)
Not shabby but a slowing nevertheless. On 3x I was expecting customers of 1300 minimum to 1500 for FY18. But we were presented with 992 in the TU. Disappointing.

Secondly, in my ball-park analysis of the road to profitability i was using a ratio of Revenue to Capital Investment, non-dimenionalised, to see if that was improving towards profitability, which it was.... up until FY18 by the looks of the customer numbers from the TU.
I used Admin as the proxy for Capex as Revenue/Customer divided by Admin/Customer:
1H16 : 0.70
FY16 : 0.69
1H17 : 0.78
FY17 : 0.75
1H18 : 0.85
(A ratio greater than 1.00 would indicate operating profitability on the whole customer base).
But, with the £40m the've raised, and with only 992 customers by end FY18, it looks unlikely that the 0.85 will be improved upon and will, probably, deteriorate thus lengthening the journey to profitability. (I was expecting profitability in 2019 with over 1500 customers by 1H19).

The investment needed to get traction, and arrive at profitability, may, as sunnysides says require more aggressive Capex but I'm not sure.
It begs the question whether the pricing strategy is correct and, further whether, at the ratios given, customers are, in effect, being bought.
Is the middleman take too high? Is the price to value too low?
Certainly, when you read the customer productivity gain figures being bandied about one wonders or, certainly, I do.
(Also, as said before, I think these folks missed a commercial trick in pricing this stuff as software. My pricing strategy would have been to price per transaction. There would then have been a direct comparator between a human action and a robotic action. But then I'm just an engineer WTFDIK? But I have read the paper-clip story... Lol!).

Anyway, I hold, as I think this is, or soon will be, put into play.

[mike1608] 05/12/2018 17:58

Hi everyone, I am new. I am thinking of buying some since its at a low price. Any advice?

[dtaliadoros] 05/12/2018 16:43

Tomorrow should be an up day, but I've nonetheless reduced to quarter of my original holding as I want to preserve what small profit I now have left.

I just don't see any new news coming in the will give this the support this stock needs, other than bargain hunters coming in. Ordinarily I would have just held on, but with AIM stocks you just don't know.

What would be nice is to see directors showing a vote of confidence by buying at these bargain levels.

[sunnysideup1] 05/12/2018 16:14

BP need to invest a lot more money and burn a lot of cash to keep up with the opposition, not appease the whingers who want it to become profitable asap and give them a dividend.

You dont dominate a fast moving industry without all-out aggressive, high investment expansion and giving away software kernels for free. Uk investors just don't have the stomach for that. A bunch of gentlemen (women) losers.

[hedgehogster] 05/12/2018 16:02

Im afraid I don't see a bottom here anymore, all of my confidence in this company has evaporated, the stock is down 56% from its September peak, a poorly worded ambiguous trading update in November with emphasis on increased losses, competitors that are clearly smashing the market and leaving BP in the dust hence the huge difference in valuations, shorting activity on the increase, director sells, a chairman standing down, not one bit of positive news and day after day all we see is continued sells. Who knows where this could end up, I no longer see a takeover opportunity anymore, with SAP moving into the RPA space as Danny pointed out there are much cheaper opportunities out there for the giants looking to move in. By the time BP reaches a level of profitability it will be too late, the market will be saturated.

[hazl] 05/12/2018 15:44

Please don't encourage. 8-)


Well done fuji99 good to stick to the facts.

[bokies] 05/12/2018 15:39

Smerch must be pu§§ing himself knowing that he is living in fcuckys head! :D

[fuji99] 05/12/2018 13:49

Just a remark: Today volume over 1 million shares is quiet significant for such a stock. For the shorters, Cadian and Coltrane reduced their exposure. So they may be aware of a recovery. Then if any fraction of the remaining positions are closed that'll be like a spring upwards.

[fuji99] 05/12/2018 13:00

IMO there will be a strong and sharp wave up from tomorrow as the Nasdaq will probably recover some losses.
If then we hold and stay over £12 - £13+ in the next few weeks, we have reached the bottom.
If, in the other hand, we cannot hold £12 - £13 level, we may re-visit £10.

[bamboo2] 05/12/2018 12:47

FWIW, I have a confirmed H&S tp approx 842

There is a common gap from 14/8/2017 902.2-906.2 and this is likely to be the target of shorts.

The next gap down is a breakaway gap dated 13/4/2017 [t/u induced] 490-506.2

Good historical support at 900 and 500

No position