Blackrock World Mining Share Discussion Threads

[masurenguy] 28/1/2021 10:49

Xi doesn't need to invade Taiwan at this stage - it would be a very risky move, without guarantee of success unless they heavily bombed the island with massive casualties, which would not serve their interests. Otherwise Taiwan has a strong defence capability and is 85 miles offshore from China so a land invasion would be very risky, with or without US support for Taiwan.

If Xi's leadership position was at risk he might resort to this tactic to unify patriotic support around him, but that is not the case at the moment. If they wanted to "test the water" they could easily occupy Kinmen and Matsu, two Taiwanese controlled islands just a couple of miles offshore from mainland China and basically indefensible. That would checkout the international reaction and consequences with minimal risk and would also seek to embarrass and intimidate Taiwan.

[poikka] 28/1/2021 10:25

Quite so, maden, but megalomaniac Xi would look pretty weak if all the incursions into Taiwanese air space, and all the rhetoric, were to come to nothing.

The longer China leaves a decision, the more defences Taiwan will have.

Four scenarios:

1. China invades Taiwan.
2. China continues trying to wear down Taiwan, with a possible blockade.
3. Xi backs down and gets deposed.
4. China tries the softly, softly approach by wooing Taiwan.

Something has to happen, and I'm watching.

[madengland_] 28/1/2021 09:43

Well let's hope that it's just scaremongering with global political motives. The damage to world trade would be catastrophic and I think the Chinese know that and would not want that.

[poikka] 28/1/2021 09:06

I'm still a bit in doubt about investing atm, with my really big concerns surrounding a possible Chinese strike against Taiwan, see this article:

hxxps://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4113229 (apologies if it swaps the tt for xx)

On one hand, there would be massive pressure to stop trade with China, which would affect RIO and BHP, especially as I reckon China has big stocks of iron ore and steel.

On the other hand, eventually, trade would continue, although never as before.

In the meantime, gold would rocket, and eventually Taiwan would require massive reconstruction leading to even bigger demand for steel.

This is all a near doomsday scenario, but I wouldn't bet against China going for broke. Let's hope it doesn't happen.

Any thoughts?

[poikka] 27/1/2021 18:29

Folk have certainly done well out of mining shares, so a spot of profit taking's to be expected. Prices of copper and IO still holding up. I did take some more profits here the other day, and am now cumfy with what I've got; it was a very big holding...

[madengland_] 27/1/2021 12:28

Thanks Dave. I think once the discount to nav opens to 10 percent I am going to feel like the mining sector may have completed a small correction due. Still seems a great long term play.

[madengland_] 27/1/2021 08:17

Have not managed to read Freeport's results but a 5% drop obviously feeding through here. Anyone read the results? I did catch highlights and they looked ok, so maybe a sign the sector ahead of itself.

[dartboard1] 25/1/2021 09:44

Does anyone know a good fund/etf ... LSE listed preferably that just holds base commodities. I hold this one, but would like to have separate holdings for gold and other commodities.. this mixes them up

[madengland_] 20/1/2021 17:37

Well share price holding strong.....

[madengland_] 18/1/2021 14:52

Certainly plenty of pundits suggesting so, and metal prices holding up well

[adejuk] 18/1/2021 14:34

metal super cycle in the offing?

[madengland_] 18/1/2021 14:32

I think Freeport are reporting end jan then the rest rolling in Feb. I guess my sell is on the thought process that if miners sell off a bit the nav discount could widen back to say 10%. Not sure if I will add back ahead of Freeport results which should be decent?

[adejuk] 18/1/2021 13:18

looks like the turn is on

[madengland_] 18/1/2021 12:47

I've followed myself. Expecting we may see a bit of a sell off and the discount to open a bit wider. Quite happy sitting on a bit of extra cash for a short time.Given my trades of the past me selling a few is a bullish buy signal :-)

[poikka] 18/1/2021 11:51

Or not..China's growth although beating forecasts was soft in December.

Who knows, anyway took some more profits and leaving it at that and ok with present holding for the foreseeable.

[poikka] 15/1/2021 17:40

Reckon it's just a profit-taking day.

[adejuk] 15/1/2021 16:21

still a no brainer re nav

[madengland_] 15/1/2021 14:07

What could go wrong..... the discount to nav could open up again. Like today Well sold :-)

[madengland_] 15/1/2021 07:41

Stimulus paying dividends for mining stock investorshttps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stimulus-paying-dividends-for-mining-stock-investors-flr2dzzt9

[poikka] 12/1/2021 12:25

So what could possibly go wrong...?

No idea, but I did take some profits, today.

[jonwig] 07/1/2021 10:35

SP blue, NAV cerise.