Black Sea Property Fund Share Discussion Threads

[mitzis] 19/8/2005 09:44

Another 100k buy a few mins back I expect a tick-up.

[mitzis] 19/8/2005 09:38

Chart is very positive in the short term any ideas where to next..?

[phil2003] 18/8/2005 18:10

(puts on blue Cagoule, hiking boots...lifts umbrella in the air)
tally ho everybody, we're off to a higher high again.

be lucky.

[mitzis] 18/8/2005 13:17

Those cheeky Market Makers are buying stock again.

[mitzis] 17/8/2005 10:14

A large trades this morning..someones buying a load of stock.

[mitzis] 08/8/2005 12:00

No link I'm sorry phil..

[m.t.glass] 08/8/2005 11:57

However, I found this article in Bulgaria's SOFIA ECHO dated last Monday (Aug 1) suggesting ongoing investment by outsiders:


Prices spike, investment continues
Ivan Vatahov

HOUSING prices in Bulgaria's regional centres rose 4.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2005 compared to the first quarter.
The average price for real estate stood at 730.5 leva per sq m between April and June, up from 700.5 leva the previous quarter, the National Statistical Institute said on July 21.
Apartment prices were the highest in the Black Sea city of Varna. The average price there reached 1198 leva per sq m, down 0.2 per cent from Q1.
Sofia, where housing prices traditionally have been the highest, came second with 1118.8 leva per sq m, a 2.5 per cent increase.
The Black Sea port and resort city, Bourgas, was third with 1113 leva per sq m, a 4.1 per cent incease.
The prices of flats in Smolyan (Southern Bulgaria) increased the most, by 33.5 per cent to 553 leva per sq m, followed by Vratsa (North-Western Bulgaria), 24.6 per cent to 451.50 leva, and Kyustendil (South-Western Bulgaria), 17.4 per cent to 371.7 leva.
The most significant decreases could be found in Kurdjali (Southern Bulgaria), by 6.9 per cent to 617.8 leva per sq m, in Pernik (Western Bulgaria), by 5.6 per cent to 517.3 leva and Pleven (Northern Bulgaria), by 4.3 per cent to 719.2 leva per sq m.
Bulgarian housing prices rose by 47.5 per cent last year to an average of 540 leva per sq m, but real estate brokers say price growth should slow in the next two years. In their view, the Bulgarian real estate market is stabilising.
The high demand is also beneficial for banks and property credit. Since the start of 2005 most banks have started offering preferential interest rates. These rates are applicable for one year after obtaining credit, before they begin to increase.
Several local and foreign investors announced new plans in July, proving the attractiveness of the local property market.
The British Lewis Charles Sofia Property Fund said it sought to raise up to 50 million British pounds (around 72.5 million euro) and invest it in real estate in Bulgaria. The company seeks to raise the cash through an initial public offering on the Alternative Investment Market of the London Stock Exchange (LSE), which provides an opportunity for smaller, growing companies to access investors.
The fund will then invest in residential property near Sofia and neighbouring ski resorts, Lewis Charles Sofia Property Fund said in a statement to the LSE.
Bulgaria has three major ski resorts, Bansko, Borovets and Pamporovo. The country will seek to modernise its Vitosha ski area, which overlooks Sofia, in line with its application to host the 2014 Winter Olympic Games.
The Lewis Charles Sofia Property Fund will back new projects, providing funds to developers. The fund would further be in charge of property sales, the company said.
In another move, the German group Wertinvestition said it would enter the Bulgarian real estate market with two projects in Sofia and Bansko.
The company is to build a residential complex on a 6224 sq m area in the Mladost 2 neighbourhood in Sofia, comprising six different buildings. As well as apartment buildings, the complex will contain trade centres, office buildings and recreation areas.
The second project Wertinvestition will undertake focuses on the construction of vacation buildings in Bansko. The company has already bought a plot in the region.
Investment in the two projects will exceed 10 million euro. The company is interested in long-term investment in the country.
Karoll, a Bulgarian financial group, said on July 14 it would launch a real estate investment trust that will invest in agricultural land, aiming to achieve an annual yield of 10 to 20 per cent.
The trust, Advance Terrafund, will be the second of its kind in Bulgaria. It would be launched with a capital of 500 000 leva, Karoll said in a statement.

[m.t.glass] 08/8/2005 11:45

The Independent today takes a sceptical view of whether Bulgaria will actually join the EU in 2007, and suggests property stocks based on that premise are likely to become longterm plays rather than short term ones

[phil2003] 08/8/2005 11:07

mitzis, have you got a link for the shares mag artical?

[mitzis] 08/8/2005 09:23

Scsw has a hold/buy recommendation this month.

[mitzis] 04/8/2005 08:46

Shares mag has a 2 page article on Bulgarian property market and a small piece on Bksa.

[mitzis] 30/7/2005 10:03

Bought in yesterday and was amazed to be told there was no stamp duty to pay...

[peterstilgoe] 29/7/2005 14:26

Sounds good, will try & take a look over the weekend, might take a position

Cheers

[phil2003] 29/7/2005 14:24

Peterstilgo, Not really a concern as bksa have bulgarian management on board (including a bulgarian goverment minister from memory, sorry not time to substantiate this today) and the land has been aquired at 1/2 the (local - not UK) going rate so whatever the EU outcome the fundamentals remain (imho).
nothings certain - risk / reward and all that!

[peterstilgoe] 29/7/2005 11:34

I dont hold but own some properties & land in BG.

Dont know much about this company but EU status is under serious pressure to happen in 2007, time is running out by the day, the new government etc in BG hasnt helped. They still think they can get the reforms in time but I reckon its 50/50 at the mo.

Dont know what if any affect this may have with you guys just thought id drop it in if you didnt already know

[rambutan2] 29/7/2005 11:32

i liked this bit...
As a result of what the Manager considers to be its "first mover advantage",
generally accepted level of expertise and strong team on the ground, it is
dealing with a considerable number of land-owners and is currently analysing in
detail 10 firm proposals, relating to approximately 150,000 sq.m. of
developments (equivalent to 2,300 apartments assuming an average size of 70
sq.m.). This would indicate the Fund could be fully invested ahead of initial
expectations of 18 months from launch.

2006 sipp rules could well boost their mkt.

[phil2003] 29/7/2005 11:14

I don't think we can get any less coverage in the press than we've had so far!! however that's why (imho) the share price is substantially undervalued even without taking into account a more speculative pe based on sq ft2 of land inflation / the approaching bulgarian property bandwagon (which will gather more and more momentum as bulgaria gets closer to EU memebership) I'm possibly slightly more bullish with a target of 29-30p medium term, more than happy to wait.

[m.t.glass] 29/7/2005 10:32

Joined the pennyshare punters with a December upbet.

-->Cezary - if you know of a company website url, can you add it to the header please? Always useful up top. (Or one for Development Capital Management Ltd with BKSA page link?)

[snaptastic] 29/7/2005 08:45

agreed mike, 27p is minimum fair value fow now so should get there soon hopefully..

[mikeriley] 29/7/2005 08:32

Glad I'm already in here. When the masses get wind of this I think there will be some added interest.

[snaptastic] 29/7/2005 08:29

added again... no resistance on the charts yet and hoping for some weekend press..

[snaptastic] 28/7/2005 18:30

just twigged on the valuation from yesterdays statement.. huge upside if they can keep buying them at the huge discount that they have been and then selling them in a few months at market prices...

Net present value of the Fund (pre-tax) as at 30/06/05 estimated at #69.1m (27.5p per share)

The total value of the existing projects on a non-discounted basis (before tax),
when added to the existing net assets, is #78.0m (31.1p per share).


The Fund will have the ability to buy-back Shares in order to address any
imbalance between supply and demand for them. Where it believes it to be in
the interests of Shareholders as a whole, the Board may choose to utilise
realised capital gains to fund share buy-backs where Shares are trading at a
discount to net asset value.

They will start selling the first apartments in October so if we are still trading at a discount to assets then share buy backs may well begin which should strongly underpin the price...

this is the best bit...

The Fund has to date committed under options deposits totalling Eu22m (excl.
VAT) of the Eu64m raised on flotation, net of launch costs. This represents
approximately 2,500 apartments in 4 different locations on the Black Sea coast.
Based on the above Colliers valuations, these apartments under option would have
an "as built", open market value of approximately Eu215m. =~£150mil sterling.. by my maths that equivalent to 60p per share!

as time goes by and they get fully invested, current cash will be valued at around 50% more because of the huge discount they manage to buy the apartments at... quarterly updates will ensure a steady flow of valuations which from my calculations can only increase, even if the market prices stay flat...

[yorkshire t] 27/7/2005 20:57

RNS suggests all is going to plan if not a bit ahead. Very encouraging positve points in the Q1 valuation. Last paragraph 'Negotiations are well advanced on a number ofprojects and the Fund hopes to be able to make further announcements during theremainder of the year.' announcment'S sounds good and may get lead to a bit more interest.

May need to top up.

[phil2003] 27/7/2005 14:42

rambutan2,
they aren't looking for existing properties, they aquire the land / foundations / off plan rights to develop in Bulgaria then sell on (when there's something to walk around) just before completion, excactly the same as the smart property developers did in the city in early 2000's boom, Just that bksa are in before the boom kicks in.

Looking at the financial structure & socio-economic factors of this fund, IMHO BKSA is an absolute no brainer alternative to cash for part of my portfolio. as ever - all imho / dyor / I'm holding.
ALSO some of my other holdings could learn alot from reading today's v. informative / well written RNS.
be lucky.
Phil

[snaptastic] 27/7/2005 14:36

looks like we may have found some support at 21p. MM had been soaking up lots of sells lately so i think they will be more than happy to march the price up further to offload them at a bigger premium... imho.. i'm expecting a few tips after todays update and EU worries dismissed...