Birmingham City Share Discussion Threads

[master rsi] 20/8/2009 15:22

It seems if the deal goes ahead, the shares are cheap at he moment.

After the early profit taking are now on the bounce

[bluenose851] 20/8/2009 15:15

its not a done deal yet...he lost a milliin quid before on his failed attempt. a pound a share though....must be as a result of our win lastnight....or just so the deal value is more than the cost on ronaldo!!!

[fivepounds] 20/8/2009 14:37

if you have any left over IanDippie from the patio can you send me some so I can start mine! cheers!

[fivepounds] 20/8/2009 14:19

Wake up !!! you have been sold!

[bluenose851] 20/8/2009 11:35

good result for us last night and now we are above manuin the league!!! early days but those games against lesser teams are the sort we need to win. It was a definate penalty, james clattered him. he may have been looking at the ball but it doesnt change the fact that Larson was decked when going for the ball in the penalty area

[teapreacher] 16/8/2009 16:04

1-Nil only. Birmingham played alright. Benitez looks a player. I think they'll stay up.

[mryesyes] 16/8/2009 14:17

Young would not be allowed to simultaneously pay less to the other shareholders
However my suspicion would be that prior to making an offer to "all sharewholders" he may be buying their shares privately to 29.9% total and then make a formal offer for say 50p max
BTW at time of writing Man U just cleared a shot off the line shortly after taking the lead
I fear Fergie is going to go all out for an emphatic victory and we could see Man U score 7 by 90 mins

[yesrupnel] 12/8/2009 19:57

So very roughly the share price (if it goes ahead) could be

Bought for £50m / 81.5m shares = 61.3p
Bought for £60m / 81.5m shares = 73.6p
Bought for £70m / 81.5m shares = 85.9p

Is that too simple? Would Yeung pay more per share for Sullivans and Gold shares and less for private investors?
Yeung holds 29.9%, Sullivan 23.22%, David Golds 13.03%, Ralph Gold 12.53% = 78.68%
I assume Karen Brady and a few other directors hold a percentage but the only RNS I can find is one saying that they sold their holdings on 19 Feb 2008.
So that leaves 21.32% shares on the 'open market' = 17.4m shares.
In theory Yeung could purchase these 21.32% and end up with 51.22% - but I guess that many of these 21.32% are owned by wealthy individuals or private companies.

[bluenose851] 12/8/2009 19:14

r u on proquote topinfo?

[a44] 12/8/2009 16:07

Correct on your calculations.

As soon as Grandtop hold over 29.9% (current holding) they must make takeover offer under market rules.

They also cannot offer private investors any less favourable terms than the price they have paid (top of my head I believe in last 12 months). So whatever price the directors get private investors will also get.

Karen Brady has zero holding (or below any reporting requirement) as these were bought a while ago for 60p.

[yesrupnel] 12/8/2009 15:58

So very roughly the share price (if it goes ahead) could be

Bought for £50m / 81.5m shares = 61.3p
Bought for £60m / 81.5m shares = 73.6p
Bought for £70m / 81.5m shares = 85.9p

Is that too simple? Would Yeung pay more per share for Sullivans and Gold shares and less for private investors?
Yeung holds 29.9%, Sullivan 23.22%, David Golds 13.03%, Ralph Gold 12.53% = 78.68%
I assume Karen Brady and a few other directors hold a percentage but the only RNS I can find is one saying that they sold their holdings on 19 Feb 2008.
So that leaves 21.32% shares on the 'open market' = 17.4m shares.
In theory Yeung could purchase these 21.32% and end up with 51.22% - but I guess that many of these 21.32% are owned by wealthy individuals or private companies.

[a44] 12/8/2009 15:17

The only place I have seen £70 million was in the first article "The Sun" of all places!

The HK$ was 15.86 when he purchased 29% so he will gain about 20% in exchange rate. So for point of discussion 50 mill plus 20% gives £60 million. Then BMC will claim they have improved the pitch (0.5 mill spend) and various other benefits. Also his 29% is worthless unless he can gain control so current board can try their luck at a higher value.

Against the above the current market turmoil cannot be ignored so I would have though £60 mill tops was a very good offer and they would still be lucky to get £50 million IMHO.

[yesrupnel] 12/8/2009 15:01

So what are the thoughts on the share price if this goes through?
Yeung is bidding £20m more than last time. A very crude estimate is a supposedly £70m bid for 81.5m shares = 86p each.
Any ideas if this is a rough ball park figure or any other views?

[yesrupnel] 12/8/2009 15:00

So what are the thoughts on the share price if this goes through?
Yeung is bidding £20m more than last time. A very crude estimate is a supposedly £70m bid for 81.5m shares = 86p each.
Any ideas if this is a rough ball park figure or any other views?

[a44] 12/8/2009 11:18

Selling 10K of my holding a few days ago was not the best timing I have ever made!

Lets hope it goes through this time then I will not worry about that.

Good luck to all.

[bluenose851] 12/8/2009 11:10

as a blues fan im not sure that I would want yeung. Hr doesnt seem to have the money he makes out. He couldnt complete the takeover before and now the world is a different place. Hopefully he has another backer with him......with luck someone like Lee Ka Shing or another HK billionaire

[a44] 12/8/2009 10:29

Bear in mind the HK$ rate against the pound huge saving on last purchase price.

[yesrupnel] 12/8/2009 10:27

So at long last.
How much do we think the share price will go upto?
Do we sell now at 46p.
I seem to rember that the value of the share was estimated to be 60p when Yeung was originally going to take it over.
Now he seems to be paying £20m more but is that just accounting or a real £20m more?
Any ideas?

[yesrupnel] 12/8/2009 10:26

So at long last.
How much do we think the share price will go upto?
Do we sell now at 46p.
I seem to rember that the value of the share was estimated to be 60p when Yeung was originally going to take it over.
Now he seems to be paying £20m more but is that just accounting or a real £20m more?
Any ideas?

[a44] 12/8/2009 10:26

In takeover again

[topinfo] 12/8/2009 10:17

Yep, I have streaming news thats comes out about 1 min before ADVFN.

[sos100] 12/8/2009 10:16

that statements only just come out.

your damn quick at creating threads!