Bioventix Share Discussion Threads

[gsbmba99] 11/9/2019 10:27

Interview with Dr. Mills who authored the research presented last week at Euro Society of Cardiology on Abbott single test rule out strategy. Last two mins they talk about how it's taken 10 yrs of research to understand use of hs-cTn in acute care but that research focus might now shift to using hs-cTn for screening/testing stable patients because it's really a biomarker of heart injury. Access to video may require registration. May be able to bypass here - Incidentally Dr. Mills "liked" the reply - "Some work to be done but surely a matter of time (& positive research data) before we are routinely using it in preventative approaches to cardiovascular healthcare." Could eventually result in expanded market for troponin testing.

[a1samu] 06/9/2019 16:57

Finncap research of 29.3.2019

The antibody that keeps on giving

Bioventix delivered a strong set of interims, distorted by last year’s inclusion of
c.£0.8m of back-dated royalty payments from one customer. Whilst statutory
revenues rose 2% and pre-tax profits fell 5%, the underlying performance was
considerably stronger, with revenues rising by 24% (21% CER) and underlying
adjusted EPS up 27% to 53.8p. An interim dividend of 30p was declared (+20%),
with net cash at period-end of £5.5m. Growth was driven by both Vitamin D
antibody sales/royalties and other antibodies.

Despite the strong performance,we are leaving our forecasts unchanged for the moment given the slower-thanexpected ramp in troponin antibody revenues. However, we are raising our targetprice to 3,700p to reflect both the strong underlying and continued belief thatSiemens will successfully transition to high-sensitivity troponin tests, driving growth as vitamin D sales ultimately slow.

At this level, the stock would trade on a 30x FY 2020 P/E and an EV/EBITDA of 23.0x, with a free cashflow yield of 3.3%.

Results in brief. Revenues increased 2% to £4.4m, impacted by c.£0.8m of backdated royalties in the prior period. Underlying growth was very strong, with revenuesrising by 24% (c.21% at constant exchange rates, CER) and adjusted pre-tax profits(£3.3m) and EPS (53.8p) up 23% and 27%, respectively. A 30p first interim dividendwas declared, up 20%, with period-end cash balance of £5.6m.

Vitamin D keeps on giving – upside surprise. It grew by c.28% (+£0.4m) or c.21%
CER and now accounts for c.47% of revenues. Growth was driven by new customer
sales (Diazyme (US) and Boditech (South Korea) as well as growth from customers
outside the more mature US and European markets. Equally encouraging was the
non-vitamin D portfolio, which accounted for 52% of incremental sales.

Troponin update. H1 troponin antibody sales were less than £50k. Whilst below
forecast, there is evidence of Siemens rolling out the test into its customer base. We
continue to believe that troponin will provide a significant revenue stream for
Bioventix but reduce revenues for FY 2019 from £0.36m to £0.10m.

Forecasts and valuation. We are making no changes to forecasts despite the strong
underlying performance, held back partly by the lack of visibility on troponin sales
(vitamin D offsets this). However, we increase our target price to 3,700p to reflect the
ex-troponin growth, at which level the stock would trade on a FY 2020 P/E and
EV/EBITDA of 30x and 23x, with a free cashflow yield of 3.3%. Our full-year dividendexcludes any special dividend, which was paid in FY 2016 (20p) and FY 2017 (40p)and FY 2018 (55p). Year-end cash is expected to be £6.1m.

[stepone68] 06/9/2019 15:26

Yes, 2016 and 2017 were both 'ahead' of market expectations. 2015 was 'significantly' ahead. 2018 no update.*

You're right sharw, that we should expect at least a notice of results, so perhaps there is still the chance of a trading update, but I'd be surprised. Not expecting any fireworks this year.

*Revenue forecasts for 2015 had been 3.8m, turned out to be 4.3.
For 2016 forecasts were 4.8, turned out to be 5.5!
2017 forecasts were 6.3, upgraded to 7.1 after the trading update, then actual revenue was 7.2.
2018 forecasts were for 8.0 which turned out to be spot on, although there was also the 700k of backdated royalties.
Current forecasts for 9 million revenue. We'd had 4.4m at the interims. I'm hoping for 9 point something low-ish, with EPS somewhere over a pound.

[sharw] 06/9/2019 14:55

The 2016 and 2017 were mandatory because they were profit warnings (of the nice kind). There was not one last year because the board deemed the anticipated results to be sufficiently in line with market expectations. There was, however, a notice of results day on 3/9/18.

[stepone68] 06/9/2019 11:26

There was one in 2016 (late August) and 2017 (4th September), but not last year .... who knows what this year will bring, but I would say that if we were going to get one it would have been out by now.

[diviincomesearch] 06/9/2019 11:08

Did someone say there’s a trading update due soon? I can’t find it on the calendar anywhere...

[ppio] 05/9/2019 00:55

Clinical trial further validating the benefits of high sensitivity troponins (hs-cTnI).

hxxps://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/articles/2019/08/28/13/42/sun-1040am-historic-esc-2019

And whilst the above study used the Abbott hs-cTnI other work suggests that the Siemens hs-cTnI is comparable.

hxxp://clinchem.aaccjnls.org/content/64/9/1347

[steptoes yard] 02/9/2019 13:07

I hope they haven't been investing in the same sh*t as big neil

[diviincomesearch] 01/9/2019 10:04

Miton have most likely sold as their small cap funds are having a lot of outflows.

So more likely a forced seller than anything more sinister.

[carcosa] 31/8/2019 06:29

You can get the note for free direct from FinnCap by going to their site and registering:

e.g.

[crazycoops] 30/8/2019 16:42

The Finncap note can be accessed from Research Tree which is a subscription site. Only £100k in 2019 and £600k in 2020 is attributed to Troponin which leaves plenty of scope for upgrades once the Siemens test gains traction. Possibly notice of results and trading update next week.

[s_a_b] 30/8/2019 13:38

Hi Stepone, there are still FinnCap forecasts for FY19 and FY20 which you can access via their research library. As the co hasn't updated on trading since the half year results I expect they will report broadly in line with forecasts. Comments on Troponin growth will be of interest! Good luck to all holders.

[nigeldoug1] 30/8/2019 12:53

Adrian John Williams selling down, will interesting to see who has picked these up. Again not much movement in share price Will be interesting to see whether we get a trading update next week or just notice of when the final results will be released.

[nigeldoug1] 29/8/2019 17:41

Looks like Liontrust have taken over the Miton position. I think that is a good sign.

[gnnmartin] 28/8/2019 18:30

Indeed, from just under 10% to just under 3%, and they can now sell the rest without informing the market. They presumably think that the Troponin progress will disappoint. Still, its encouraging that they can sell so many shares without hitting the share price.

[nigeldoug1] 28/8/2019 17:00

Miton have sold a large chunk. Wonder why?

[tudes100] 28/8/2019 01:33

somebody shifting some big volume

[johnsmith321] 27/8/2019 20:02

gsbmba99 comment:
In addition, mass spectrometry will not be used for routine blood analysis like ELISA testing (as with Bioventix antibodies). It needs a seperate expensive machine and it is not amenable to high throughput analysis needed for hospital blood testing.

[robinnicolson] 03/8/2019 11:37

Thank you gsbmba99 for your knowledgeable reply. Much appreciated!

[gsbmba99] 03/8/2019 10:06

The Neurology research is based on the test produced by Bateman et al. The Bateman test is not affiliated with BVXP. If you go back to 27 Jun on this board and the research published on the Roche test: "Although these studies are promising and show the potential of plasma Aβ as a true AD biomarker, they are costly and need extensive development before they can be implemented in primary care or in large screenings where cost-effective, fully automated, high-throughput, and highly reliable analysis methods are needed." This comment is referencing both the Bateman test and a similar test developed by Nakamura et al because both are reliant on mass spectrometry. If Pre-Diagnostics is able to develop a successful test for beta amyloid, it's unlikely to be competing against the Bateman or Nakamura tests for the attention of diagnostics companies (other than Roche, who appear to have their own solution).

[robinnicolson] 02/8/2019 17:09

An extract from a front page article in The Times today.

"A simple blood test that can detect the onset of Alzheimer's has been developed by scientists in a breakthrough for combating the disease.
The test could speed up diagnosis in GP surgeries and boost the development of drugs to tackle the condition.
Researchers showed that the test had more than 90% accuracy in spotting toxic proteins in the brain that can be an early indication of the disease."

"...the procedure could be in use in little more than a year as a means of recruiting people en masse for clinical trails."

Details of the blood test were published in the journal 'Neurology'.

No specific mention of BVXP in The Times article, although BVXP has been collaborating with Pre Diagnostics AS for a blood-based beta amyloid Alzheimer’s diagnostic test.

[red5] 02/8/2019 14:58

Understood

[chippyfriday] 02/8/2019 13:55

Red5,

I’m not accusing you of ramping, I understand your argument. Just saying it wouldn’t influence my decision to buy or hold any share including this one.

[stepone68] 02/8/2019 13:07

You could just drop 10/11/12/13, they are ancient history now.