Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Bioprogress Plc LSE:BPRG London Ordinary Share GB0032681628 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 50.00p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0 06:30:09
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Unknown 9.5 -2.8 -1.8 - 0.00

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Date Time Title Posts
10/4/201116:00Bioprogress BPRG - Serious Investors Only (Moderated)20,082
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mad mike: Someone, asked about my view on the share price. I don't lean towards manipulation theories. I'm coming around to the view (& I've seen it elsewhere e.g. TMC), that there are two big sustained rises for a small company having potential large future growth. First there is the rise, when first floated, where the ordinary PIs climb aboard in numbers, partly driven by ramping of the blue skies possibilities, by the pre-float PIs. Then some reality sets in, about real timescales, the number of obstacles that need to be overcome, which is sometimes coupled with failed promises of early profitability, or failure in operational execution becoming clear to the PIs. Also around this time there may need to be a change in strategy, or market focus, because everything wasn't thought through, or new obstacles occur, or markets change. This of course unsettles everyone. Inevitably the share prices then goes backwards (though not necessarily in a straight line). This state last for a 'few'(!) years. Then there is the second, substainable rise, but this requires the company to be proven to be profitable (i.e. not promises, or projections, but regulatory results). The company's business strategy also must be credible, with clear evidence that the startegy is actually working in practice (i.e. that future growth is likely to real, not an aim). Furthermore the company must be able to show operational excellence, so that it is clear that the people throughout the company are capable, and large enough to support existing and future growth. Plus, it is always important to have patents actually granted, not just applied for, as is often the case at float time. Finally there needs to be no important patent disputes/challenges. Once all those hurdles are crossed, and the management are credible, I believe the institutions are keen to buy in, particularly as they will see the share price is depressed, and the company is then a relatively low risk investment with high upside. But the company also needs a roadshow to tell the institutions. Only then does the share price re-rate, as the institutions buy in and make large profits from the depressed shareprice. It looks to me like Bioprogress/Meldex is getting increasing close to the trigger point that results in a re-rating. [edit: but will the interims, or the full year results be one of the necessary hurdles, before the trigger] However, if I had come to those conclusions before I first invested in Bioprogress/Meldex, then I would have held off investing until a few weeks ago! LOL!! So don't take any notice of me!! In the case of TMC (a miner), substitute the word patents with mining rights/certificates of extraction, and you have a similar story. The shareprice was depressed for years, despite the company sitting on the fourth biggest nickle resource in the world. Even as the company put all the bricks in the wall (lots of licenses/permits/certificates, built shipment platforms, and got sales contracts etc), the share price still didn't rise. Great RNS, but no sustained rise! PIs were pulling their hair out, and many had departed in disgust. Even after the first shipment left profitably there was only a small rise. It look three or four shipments for new investors to be convinced this wasn't just a one off, but an on-going sustainable highly profitable operation. Finally a CEO roadshop was required, with eye-popping figures showing what the company was really worth (and a few whispered words as to the 20 fold plus real value!), but also coupled with the proof of execution, and profitably I've mentioned. Then in no time at all, the share price re-rated by a factor of 4 to 5.
nick2412: SC3 - thanks for your reply. There was some discussion on this thread by bracknell boy and others that speculated that J & J's Tylenol could be a candidate for a tabwrap deal. One single deal alone with a 3% royalty on such a product would put all foreseeable internal in-house projections into the shade. I reiterate that if you say the in-house products are the compelling reason to invest because BPRG's technology advantages will knock out the competition then you need to ask why won't TTP flock to the provider and patent holder of these disruptive technologies. Judging by the number of partners alluded to by BPRG they already are forming an orderly queue. That's even before Meldex begins to solve the global problem of counterfeit drugs with their professed superior technology. Of course if BPRG's technology isn't really up to much then the in-house products will struggle to take market share and there will be no partner deals whatsoever. So, yes, under this scenario your suggestion that TTP deals are not a significant reason to invest holds good. But I doubt if this is the reasoning behind the case you make. I don't think it's especially fruitful to get into the guessing game of weighted percentages although I am pleased you have moved up to 30% from 20% in terms of assessing the influence of external deals :-) Of course I can see in-house products being the more influential side of the business IF Meldex acquires a few more Mebrosin type companies by issuing truck loads of shares at 50P. We would then have the much quoted $1 billion company and an 'exhuberant' 45p to 60p share price for the next five years. It's what I fear from growth by acquisition companies. What RT has done has been admirable and essential but there is a time to pause and that time has been reached in my view. Building a great business is not always synonymous with building a great share price. With constant dilution invariably a lacklustre share price (as we have now) remains forever lacklustre. I want to see a halt to further acquisitions (and options) until the promised 'early fruits' are visible and shareholder value is delivered. I do think RT has done a great job in putting Meldex in a position where negotiations for third party deals can be conducted from a position of financial strength. In addition there is the useful negotiating stance of 'take it or leave it as we have the technology and infrastructure to go it alone and take market share from you if necessary'. I share and accept Inghu's view that ultimately Meldex could have the capabilities to put out in-house products for blockbuster markets. But the point being is that the stepping stones that leads the company there will be TTP third party royalty based deals for blockbuster markets. As I said before, this is not a self-induced pipedream but it's based on public domain company statements and broker notes from RT and associates over a protracted period of time. I think perhaps one explanation is that management have become obsessed with avoiding a share price spike and want to remove Meldex from the volatility and speculative nature of BPRG of old. Fair enough, but I think that is an unnecessary worry and is not in shareholders interests. You'll know the industry better than me but look at OXB, PTI and Silent Therapeutics. All had significant third party deals and the shares rocketed. Perhaps more importantly, the stock price stayed buoyant after the spikes. In the case of SLN the rise was a combination of spikes and a relentless northwards creep. That's the share price combination I'd like to see RT should aspire to rather than playing down prospective big external deals as a primary reason to invest! There is another worthy stock, Allergy Therapeutics, that has slowly but surely grown its internal revenues and profitability. It has also pursued going it alone and has raised significant sums of money. It also is tackling blockbuster markets. Does the market pay attention to the slow but steady growth from its in-house sales? Not at all, look at the graph, the market awaits the 'big deal' that allows the company to offer mass market commercial product after possible Phase 3 trial success. The difference between AGY to Meldex is that AGY is tied by clinical trials and has limited product line in terms of getting that deal that makes the share price motor. The fact is that significant deals will move stocks swiftly northwards. Almost invariably they start to move before a major deal. BPRG's stock price is stagnant so I suspect that the message which I take issue with of 'don't invest for big external deals' is half correct. I hope it is just a half completed sentence and just misses out 'because we are slightly late so need to dampen expectations for a few weeks.' Anyway, all the best and maybe I'll see you and DW at the EGM.
fatboy9: poorold - you said "I would not be surprised at all to find out a TabWrap System has been purchased by a global pharma either. I heard earlier this year that the next machine built would likely go that route." - strangely enough, this is a topic of conversation that I have been having offboard with several other investors. My question to the other investors and to you also, is does RT even have to tell us about the TTP ordering the machines until such time as commercialisation of a product because up until this point it will not have a material impact on the BPRG share price if the TTP has very deep pockets and can afford to pay for x machines out of their petty cash. FB9
nick2412: Jan-mar - good to hear re. MBO. Just hope there is no other lowly priced takeover in the wings. I always enjoy the posts from Walrus and he makes some fair points. As for GH I think events would have progressed like this. GH would have raised about 10m from Collins Stewart at higher than the current share price. He'd have concluded deals with a few pharmas with accompanying share price spikes. The share price would at some stages go wildly higher and have a big trading range. The lows probably higher than the current share price. We'd have minimal revenues and there would be no sign of commercialisation from the 'big' deals. Think of Proctor and Gamble, Bristol Myers Squib/ Convatec, Boots, Wyeth, Perrigo etc etc. There would be high cash burn and GH would raise funds again. Not sure how long that cycle could go on for particularly if he needed new funds in the midst of a bear market.
lexuss2: I believe that options should only be granted for outstanding performance and not granted simply for doing a job which is already handsomely rewarded. I would not argue with anyone who says that RT has already demonstrated outstanding performance. It would appear (although I am not at all convinced he would have been the only person capable of doing so) that he has turned a company from possible bankruptcy into a company which has the potential to generate large amounts of profit for its shareholders. I await the realisation of that potential with eager anticipation. However, I would argue that RT has already been rewarded for that "outstanding" performance in as much as he has been granted 4 million (non performance) options at 29.1p and has already exercised 1.9 million of these at 70p in February, netting him a return of £777,000. AND if he were to exercise the balance of these options at Friday's lowly price he would nett a further £465,000. So I do not believe a £1.24 million profit is indicative of a failure to reward our current CEO for his outstanding performance to date. Moreover, he also holds 2 million further options at 29.1p which are exercisable when the share price hits 87.3p for three (out of five) consecutive days. Were he to exercise them at the earliest opportunity he would nett another£1.16 million and again I do not believe the presence of these options indicate a failure to reward our CEO for his efforts. Finally, he also holds 1.6 million options at 44.92p which are exercisable when the share price reaches 134.8p which would turn him in another profit of £1,44 million –another tidy sum - AND all the time he is still receiving his (some would say) very generous annual stipend. This may all sound as if I have a bit of 'green eye' but nothing could be further from the truth – I hope and wish my CEO makes himself millions, even billions – and I hope he does so quickly. But there has to be a bit of balance – I'd like to make a couple of quid on the way myself. I'm lucky because my average price means I am already in profit (just) – but I know there are a lot of faithful Bio supporters who are nursing quite (by their standards) large losses. Like myself, these supporters have stuck with the company through thick and thin and there seems to have been a lot more of the latter than of the former. – so it's about time the 'faithful' reaped some benefit from their investment before the company starts to dole out more options which are based on an unrealistically low share price and an unrealistic multiple of that share price I've no problem with new options being granted at (say) the share price that existed when our CEO first took over the company – but I do have a problem with them being granted at today's lower share price if the exercise price is only three times that price – and I think it would speak volumes if that were to happen. But what I would really prefer to see is something that would send exactly the right message to all investors and all potential investors; and that is for the Directors to demonstrate sufficient faith in the company and to purchase shares in their own right and with their own money - and before anyone says we are in a closed period and they are prevented from doing so – we have NOT been in a closed period for the whole of the last 2 ½ years.
boobly: I did not know of THREE approaches this summer ! BUT , I do know of ONE . An approach by a PE was made at around HB`s the fair value plus 10% ie:.c.£1.10 I believe that offer was rejected out of hand , and the interested party returned with a slighty improved proposal . It doesn`t take a great deal of imagination to see why RT canvassed our `respected` important investors , nor the reasons behind the the bid (s?)being rejected , £400k pa +7m options will not easily / never be replaced . No one could ever accuse RT of not trying very hard to keep Share Holders very fully informed ; everything from FAQ`S To Almost weekly RNS`s , he has the most compelling reasons to keep this fanatical band of irritating private investors `on board`. Legally RT had no requirement to advise anyone of these developments . There are a number of interesting issues here . Anyone taking even a brief interest in the share price , the trades , the manipulation of sets/mm/auction/ut`s/L`s ETC in relation to the news flow over recent months will conclude that it has not been that dificult to supress the share price So , low bid did not work for the offeree but did work for RT because he could reasonably dismiss the offer . Also , it goes to show how vunerable this company is , and indeed how valuable the technology may be . Well , the more blatent manipulation at auction appears to have dried up for the moment , not surprising , as the share price is rock bottom on fundamentals , but it is a frightening demonstration of the fragility of companies such as this . I wonder now if RT acted in the interests of ALL shareholders . A bid , any bid , may well have brought others in to contest the offer . On the other hand it may have seen some of our Pharma partners withdraw their interest as NDA`s might have been at risk . Formal notification of an offer would certainly have put one of those rockets under the share price , and perhaps we would have been able to make progress instead of regression on the back of all the good news released . I didn`t invest here for a dividend , I invested for capital growth based on bprg`s technology . Foundations may have been laid , but the brickwork should have been going UP by now , in fact we still seem to be digging the trench . I`m not impressed by the way RT has handled this (and other) issues that directly concern my investment in this company ; BUT , I am not privvy to all the facts and therefore can`t make an objective decision ; A desision that I have unfortunately been denied by my CEO , and I am disappointed at that . All this stinks of the same old issues I have always had with this company , past and present , the secrecy and machinations in all the smoke and mirrors . SO , where do any potential bidders go from here? Well , don`t think that `Interested` parties have just disappeared into the ether , RT may have averted one bid perhaps even THREE ...... As I`ve been saying for some time now : On The Radar , In Play , and (probably) Still In The Crosshairs .
marick: This BB appears to be suffering from the School holidays being too long! During quiet times when the City are on hols there is quite often a move made on stock, which is redressed when the holidays are over. Guess what the Private Schools go back next week and even the state schools the week after. We have known for a while that the EGM would be scheduled for September and here we are on the last day of August. We must also produce our interims in September, so with absolutely nothing in the way of news from the Company and its progress we willl have three significant drivers working for us. I have been very perplexed by the share price action recently in this stock. Take the entire month of August. The Company says everything is going well, the analysts upgrade the price to 97p still excluding any partnering deals, we have confirmation that the integration of Melbrosin is going well, and the Company puts some figures on a new technology that willl deliver a £3m a year profit in two years time, (at least that is what I took from the XL release), and the share price has reduced. All LTH's beleived there was a disconnect between the share price and where we shoukld be and this seems to have worsened over August. The management have with possession of all of the facts, decided upon the course of action of changing the name, and conjecture is that the Company are going to act to reconnect the value that they see to the get the shareprice to reflect this. Maybe this redirects some resource temporarily from growing the Company to growing the shareprice, but we have seen that this action has started. I have been very pleased with the progress made in rationalising the Company and growing the business on sound fundamentals, and if management is now trying to do the same with the shareprice, I think that they will have similar success with that aim. I trusted the management and made an investment in BPRG. The aims and ambitions and beleive it or not timescales that they have put out have all been met. I am told that we have 145 products now and distribution set up over all of the Americas and most of Europe together with other bits and bobs worldwide. WE have had validation of our technologies and are working in partnership with four of the world's top ten pharmas. We are subject to very tough NDA's which prohibit us from naming names and timnescales for our partner projects, but we know that the partner Tabwrap and our own Tabwrap products will be on sale this year.We have also been told that the SCP is there. The very large products that we paid for already are all going to come on stream during the near future, and I would hazard a guess that we actually will have made some money in the first half. The Melbrosin acquisition has given us the necessary critical mass to move forward quickly and effectively in marketing our enlarged stable to a waiting world. The biggest products that we can look forward to are probably going to be:- Solupolised Rocgel Monoflavin Anti-migraine strip Pain releif Tabwrap When these sales are added to our stable of Slim-thru, anti-cellulite,fast strips, Kudos, DExo pharmas, airpharma etc ww will have built a sizeable turnover. I haven't forgotten about our anti-counterfeiting technology, which due to the unique nature of reverse printing making the barrier to entry so high and the verification so simple, or come to that the various other patented applications that we have. They alll addd to the versatility of Meldex and if I were the boss I would make sure that the renamed Company had maximum exposure and news about how good they are and how quickly they are growing. The BRokers note summed this point up very welll saying that the CAGR would be 50% per annum but expect figures a lot bigger than this from items that we have excluded from our analysis. IF the market needs proof that we are growing at this huge rate, surely the interims will prove this. The H2 2007 figures will include the Melbrosin, so I think it very likely that the market will actually dissect the figures and the reconnect between the value and shareprice will be complete. To me this is what we are stiving for now, not this deal or that deal but going to the £1 or so that we are currently worth, and as a market tries to pre-empt something, I would expect the share price to move north towards this value prior to the interims being released. As with the sick Bioprogress of 2 1/2 years ago, the management assessed the situation , formulated a plan, implemented the plan. So I think they have done the same to reconnect the value they have created to the share price IF this is the case, September is the month to see this happen. WE know that the name change is to realign the market to the right sector of speciality pharma, if we are realigned to the sector average of speciality pharma, our share price will be a multiple of where it is now. I have confidence that the Management are addressing the issue and that we will have our confidence rewarded. Caveat Emptor
marick: SC3, I see the firm more or less as you do. In effect we see a timeline of huge growth in alll areas of the business punctuated over the next three years or so with the odd big one. I fervently beleive that the likes of ROCGEL when approved and released in the solupolised version will be our biggest product. I however disagree on the point 6 about not outlicensing. The anti-counerfeiting Tabwrap system which will be unveiled in Milan will be an exception to this. I have no proof of this, but commerce is the key driver. It is the driver that for expensive treatments that are being ripped off and cloned, it is very difficult to check up on. The market is small in number where pills cost over lets say $20 per pill, but the proportion that are being cloned and re-introduced into the normal supply chain even in the NHS is rising rapidly. If on a unit price basis we can wrap in a TABWRAP AC at a cost of lets say 20c - 40c per pill, it will virtually illiminate a market that is contaminating the real supply as highly as 20% in some cases. By sending these pills away to be tested, the timescale for identifying the rogues is long and the individual batches are held up, if an AC version can do random checks immediately on any or all pills the supply chain can be verified at any time and the system is currently the only one in existence. I also beleive that the Solupol technology whilst very useful for our own product may well be licensed to a number of other companies more or less immediately. Monoflavin or whatever it is called is also very exciting and will rollout in numbers this year. The analgesics that are for rollout this year are likely to be mass market and the partnered products will be the ones people focus on, but may not be as big a net income as our own! The integration risk of putting the Melbrosin boys to work seems to have been countered by the release from RT last week so I am currently relaxed about the state of BPRG but even more perplexed about the share price The share price action combined with the release of information, the revised BRokers note, the interims announcement etc lead me to beleive that RT is currently mounting a very robust campaign to halt the share price slide. Whether this is because he has received a tip off or approach for bid, or he is just fed up of the ailling shareprice is a question that only he can answer. It is apparent though that the decline was orchestrated and timed very well, and is not linked to any bad news from the Company. I fully expect the share price to have completely redressed the falls by the interims, and as always with BPRG I await the unexpected! Caveat Emptor
nick2412: Two or three random points to add to the themes already covered. Why would the share price be down if there were a bid in the offing? Admittedly it seems strange and unlikely unless the manipulation stories are accurate. I had a conversation with RT a week or so ago and he confirmed he was convinced the share price had been manipulated since early May. After 15 years experience related to mergers and acquisitions he confirmed he was aware of methods used to scare out the private investor. He stated he did not know who was doing it. He reiterated how commited he is to building a company that delivers shareholder value. He does believe BPRG is very significantly under-valued to its peers (70% being the average to companies cited in Francis Cloud's broker note although one peer sector company, Sinclair Pharma, has slipped of late for reasons that go beyond general market weakness). There are few comparative companies I was told because several have been acquired already. RT gave robust reasons why despite the peer value under-valuation BPRG has so much more going for it (marketable products, technology formats etc) compared to those it is already significantly under-valued against. I've seen some posters cite share price falls in the likes of PDX and VIY to suggest that BPRG's share price slump was in keeping with recent market turbulence. Not very good examples I feel. Both PDX and VIY tripled before sliding about 30% last week. BPRG did not triple in the comparable timeframe in fact it fell about 30% as it slumped from 70p to 50p on the back of good news, stronger cash balances and ever improving fundamentals. If the company think the stock is being manipulated then the share price decline (prior to market turbulence) supports this belief and the obvious conclusion is that the manipulation would be for a bid. There again, prolonged weakness with the backdrop of good news could just have been caused by the placings and the high amount of leverage that is (or should I say was) in the stock I would welcome a bid and hope it fails for the simple reason that it would force RT's hand to release data. I believe RT does not want traders to play with the stock and wants a more sober image for the company and that might explain subdued rns contents in terms of figures. I think that is a touch unrealistic as traders will always be attracted to companies that have the blue sky element that BPRG has. Anyway, the point being is that surely for holders to assess the merit or otherwise of any bid the figures in any prospective SCP or Tabwrap deal would have to be released NDA or no NDA. That's the sole reason I would welcome a bid but of course my desire to see figures would probably be met by any additional or existing broker updates at some stage anyway.
inghu: Benville1 - 19 Aug'07 - 13:46 - 59137 of 59173 If RT is concerned about the real possibility of a hostile takeover bid, IMO it would be the worse strategy to do the bidder's DD for them, rather than to keep them in the dark as far as possible, and his powder dry until a bid actually materialises. If a bid is made the board needs to be able to make a response as to why the shareholders should reject the bid. The more new information they can put forward the better, rather than a lame "This bid undervalues the company on what is already in the public domain". Ben1, I would disagree with you. Ignoring any bid rumour for moment, in the day to day living of being a shareholder, I want the share price to best reflect the true value of the company. Afterall, it means that my investment's worth is 'correct' and I'm gaining the rewards of being a shareholder. What's the point of owning a share that is indefinitely undervalued? At one point, we always hope that our investment will be correctly valued which is why we bought it in the first place. The only way to get that 'correct' valuation is to provide enough information to the market such that it can value it 'correctly'. If this was done, I would doubt that the market could have pushed the share price so low because the real forward looking PE factoring in SCP and tabwrap deals would make 42p look ridiculously cheap. Unfortunately we don't have those numbers so the market does know really were to go. Now looking back at the bid situation, if the company is correctly and fairly valued, then any bid would have to be provide a fair premium to that value to even begin to entice shareholders. This is again in the best interest of shareholders so shareholders should support the releasing of all information and have 100% transparency in the company. This whole idea about keeping one's powder dry is illogical, imo, because it allows the share price to decline to 42p! During a bid is actually the worst time to try to convince shareholders of anything because the motives of the board needs to be taken into account as to why they can release that information now but weren't doing it before. As a shareholder I would be angry if they could justifiable value the company at 95p (just plucking a figure from the air) today but allowed the share price to decline to 42p this week BUT were only going to provide the 95p valuation information when their own jobs were on the line. Would that not anger you? Wouldn't you prefer that the share price was at 95p prior to any bid which would then force the bidder's price to be higher? I'm always in favour of 100% transparency because the shareholders know exactly what they own and bidders then need to entice the shareholder further.
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