Bilby Share Discussion Threads

[costi_1672] 01/12/2020 09:31

Debt 4.9mil

[thirty fifty twenty] 01/12/2020 08:22

hi nico, yes i agree dont think there is enough interest/ news for them to go on a run now but it could be a nice lower risk slow burner over a couple of years.

[nico115] 01/12/2020 08:17

30 50 20 (easier to write !!)Thx for that ,great summary ,agree with all you say May get a further drift in share price with no news due and for me it's a bargain over a 2 year time period

[thirty fifty twenty] 01/12/2020 08:10

hi nico

yes great progress on debt reduction
but i think it has heavily benefitted from WC reductions too.

the business defo generates CASH but i dont think one should extrapolate the progress from the last 18months since the new CEO took charge.

for me though the fact that debt is likely to be < 1times EBITDA by year end takes the company into a new level of de-risking which should support a further re-rating.

for me biggest news was that the order book is at all time high,
and that they have confirmed they likely beneficiary of Gvt Green spending for growing Social Housing market which in itself the Gvt is committed to large spending on.

so say 4m EBITDA, in a CASH generative business with low debt - i think the current MV of 15m is a very good risk / reward.

All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
BILB is in my top5 hldgs
I am a value investor

[nico115] 01/12/2020 07:55

When will we have no debt in your opinion ?18 months time (assuming no divi paid) ?

[qs99] 01/12/2020 07:45

Nice update IMO. My take on the words used is that within 6 months we may see a reinstatement of a divi which would be ace. Net debt down another 33% to £4.1m to end Sept 2020 so should have reduced more in final quarter of 2020....again a good recovery stock IMO as value continues to clip into the equity story

DYOR

[battlebus2] 20/11/2020 09:12

I agree it’s possible

[greg the grinch] 16/11/2020 16:03

Roughly speaking, I reckon £5m profits and MC of £15m = share price rise? ;O)

[qs99] 16/11/2020 12:35

Been tipped anywhere

[nico115] 14/11/2020 11:29

Not sure it's a ramp with Tripacs taking 10pct stake but yes could drift

[jaf111] 14/11/2020 10:28

TS seems ok but would expect further short term decline on basis that this has been ramped quite hard from 20p and "the pump & dumpers" will now move on......

[its the oxman] 13/11/2020 22:33

In line trading statement possibly mildly disappointing.

[someuwin] 13/11/2020 09:24

Buyers coming in.

[nico115] 13/11/2020 08:36

Totally agree Who are Tripacs that recently took 10pct ?That's also v bullish

[qs99] 13/11/2020 08:27

agreed, lovely graph, decent results, debt will be in that 2-3 range within the next 6 months IMO....

DYOR but will hold until we get to a quid once more! DYOR

[someuwin] 13/11/2020 08:26

Still in the foothills of the recovery here. But the curve up should start accelerating soon.

This is a classic turnaround story playing out.

[nico115] 13/11/2020 08:21

Debt levels is the key Once we get to 2m to 3m of debt this will fly Just a shame the mgmnt refuse to converse with retail That's the old world It's frowned upon now

[qs99] 13/11/2020 07:58

Either way, at c.£15m and recovery stock, this isn't the right price IMO....DYOR especially when you look at some stocks that are pricing in a post COVID world

[qs99] 13/11/2020 07:44

Hope they improve the IR

Definitely think £1 is doable in time as it’s operational leverage and improved margin could see v material EBITDA delivered and a yield for us shareholders!!

[nico115] 13/11/2020 07:38

Great update I was always under the impression we would need another fund raise but that's obviously not needed now What a great turnaround The new CEO is obviously excellent Such a shame he has such a disdain for private shareholders To have asked to speak to David Bullen on a number of occassions and be promised a call only to be let down is bad form I hold a few hundred thousand here and am confident of a return to 100p highs

[someuwin] 13/11/2020 07:35

This is the important bit. Debt down significantly again. Very positive...

"Following the significant steps the Group took in the previous year to strengthen its balance sheet and improve its working capital position, the Group continued to focus on its cash generation and net debt position in the Period. As a result, the Group expects to report a 33% decrease of GBP2.3 million in net debt to GBP4.9 million from GBP7.2 million reported on 31 March 2020."

[qs99] 13/11/2020 07:25

Yes they could do a shed load more in my view

Decent update though IMo

Decent profits and debt almost eliminated won’t be long IMo

Great foundations fir next year and beyond

[nico115] 12/11/2020 22:30

Management don't give a toss about retail Not one podcast It's a disgrace No other Company has such a disdain for private shareholders I was promised a meeting with Bullen months ago Not heard a wordDisgrace

[binglem] 12/11/2020 17:15

Hi all, has there ever been much shareholder engagement at Bilby? Notice that things seem to have turned for the better and encouraged by the cash growth/ debt reduction and director buys. No investor presentation on their website seems odd...

[qs99] 11/11/2020 07:31

Let's see if the buyers return today