Bilby Share Discussion Threads

[qs99] 27/7/2020 14:46

Indeed, nice future value play being revealed

[mfhmfh] 27/7/2020 09:59

also:

'Improved gross margins to 25.4% (2019: 21.7%).Improved gross margins to 25.4% (2019: 21.7%).'

[mfhmfh] 27/7/2020 09:48

solid results today IMHO especially with the low sp:

Adjusted EBITDA increased 48% to £4.7 million (2019: £3.2 million)

Net debt reduced by £3.7 million (34%) to £7.2 million (2019: £10.9 million)

[nico115] 27/7/2020 09:14

This is a crazy price with the cash generated here New management have turned this around Well done mr bullen

[qs99] 27/7/2020 07:05

Decent update IMO....DYOR...

[nico115] 17/6/2020 11:57

This is a doubler for me Director buying Debt down Great CEO

[qs99] 28/5/2020 10:35

first EBITDA test March 2021 minimum £1.1m.....if it is comfortably ahead of this and I'd like to think management negotiated that level knowing it had a good chance of being ahead, then this could also be a decent further recovery story IMO

[tony6061] 29/4/2020 12:40

Bilby has no new contacts added to its recent update. So nothing solid to justify the increase in share price.No real assets to back this company.Smacks of another fund raise, and dilution of shares.The loss of ministry defence, and east kent housing association contracts is still a stain, and never properly explained as to why they lost these important contracts. D.O.R

[tony6061] 29/4/2020 12:39

Bilby has no new contacts added to its recent update. So nothing solid to justify the increase in share price.No real assets to back this company.Smacks of another fund raise, and dilution of shares.The loss of ministry defence, and east kent housing association contracts is still a stain, and never properly explained as to why they lost these important contracts. D.O.R

[garyb01] 27/4/2020 19:33

Gas inspections are currently continuing to be undertaken in line with government legislation, along with other compliance works - although agree revenue will be down how much will depend on the type and location of work - can't imagine they have come to a standstill...

[qs99] 27/4/2020 16:22

Moving along nicely still...

[qs99] 27/4/2020 13:09

well someone is continuing to accumulate IMO

[smithie6] 26/4/2020 17:47

Gary

"..numbers were going to be..."

yes but that is for the past, before the virus

they have taken action. yes. all companies have,

the directors may be perfectly capable
but clearly turnover & profit is being hit, & that was the point I was making

---

while the RNS is longish there is no financial data revealed for the reduction in turnover or profitability
...but they state they are talking to the bank so one assumes that they are loss making at the moment & preparing to increase the loan size to cover the monthly losses...

.so, I guess one key question is how long will it last that the workers can not go into rented council & housing association dwellings in order to do the annual gas inspection & 6 monthly fire detection test & any other required checks

[garyb01] 24/4/2020 14:33

Interesting thoughts and assumptions... they told us what the numbers were going to be and have largely delivered - how they get there is what they get paid for... it seems they have reacted to the current situation and have not just sat back and waited ...let's face it, at least they have thought about possible scenarios and are actively looking to mitigate them...

[smithie6] 24/4/2020 12:21

QS99

relaxing of lockdown

not in the UK imo, the numbers are

clicking along I think at 4000 new infections per day & 700-800 deaths

other countries are suggesting <1000 new infections/day as a limit to start relaxations (& other conditions) & UK is many weeks away from that

(I think 1000 is far too high, death rate is 10%
so it saying that 100/deaths/day, is perfectly acceptable !
&/but I don't think that anyone would agree with that if they try to implement it)

& any future relaxation will be for people to be allowed out more, it won't imo be to let anyone in to homes (clearly such an action creates a risk of multiple cross infection, so it will be one of the last relaxations to happen imo)

(btw, this virus is highly infectious, as it has shown, even with people wearing masks etc there are new infections in almost all countries !)

[smithie6] 24/4/2020 12:09

since the co. raised 2M & reduced receivables (lets assume by 1.5 million) (2 + 1.5 = 3.5 million)

& they claim about 4 million EBITDA
(4 + 3.5 = 7.5)

I don't understand how the cash position only improved by ~3.5 million

the numbers just don't add up imo !
(it's like the cash from the EBITDA has just vanished & hasn't improved the debt situation at all !)

any opinions ?

[smithie6] 24/4/2020 12:02

"...however, in light of the current COVID-19 lockdown, the Board felt it prudent to review future trading scenarios and their impact on covenants with HSBC, to ensure that the new agreement reflects the interim disruption that COVID-19 will have on the business and its outlook. HSBC remains supportive and the Group will update the market once a new agreement has been confirmed. A new agreement is expected to provide Bilby with sufficient liquidity and financial stability both during and after the COVID-19 outbreak.

(ie. THE COMPANY IS TRYING TO INCREASE ITS DEBT LIMIT, 'CAUSE BUSINESS IS SUFFERING)

"Guidance

The Board has concluded that, while positive progress is being made on the actions above, the level of uncertainty created by the Covid-19 pandemic is such that it is difficult to provide guidance on the financial performance for the current year until a clearer outlook emerges. The situation is evolving rapidly. We will provide further updates to the market as the situation evolves"

IE. BUSINESS IS BEING HIT
examples
-routine gas safety inspections (imo annually if the property is rented out, ie. 100% of Bilby's clients)
have all stopped for occupied dwellings 98-100% of customer properties I guess

- annual safety inspection of fire extinguishers,
suspended I think

- annual test of fire alarms/detectors,
suspended I assume

- annual test of emergency lighting
suspended I think

- repairs inside apartments & buildings which are not vital
suspended I think

[qs99] 24/4/2020 11:49

I don't disagree smithie6, but these are exceptional circumstances so I reckon HSBC will provide flexibility and IMO we are not too far off relaxing of lockdown which will then help them catch up on backlog of work....DYOR

[smithie6] 24/4/2020 11:43

In light of the current challenging environment,

(CHALLENGING)

the Company is maintaining a rigorous focus on cash conservation and cost management.

(NOTE THE WORDS USED)

This process has been helped as a result of the Company's recent investment in enhanced reporting controls and aligning accounting and performance management procedures. To further reduce the Group's exposure to COVID-19, we have put in place a range of initiatives including work from home, alternate shift patterns and

implementing the Government's measures relating to workforce protection through the furlough scheme as well as taking advantage of VAT and NI/PAYE deferment.

(I estimate that with the co. having to pay 20% of wages & is it ~12%-18% in NI
then I estimate that the co. has to pay 20-30% of normal cost for a worker being 'furlonged'

& Bilby makes a small margin, so clearly the profit gets nailled imo)


"The Board and senior management have also taken a 40% reduction in salary and remuneration to provide further support to the Group's cost management objectives".

one of the biggest pay cuts I've seen
...imo not because they are raking in profits but because profits have dived & they are trying to cut spending

[smithie6] 24/4/2020 11:35

" ... the Group is experiencing delays in accessing certain residential and communal properties to undertake work. Furthermore, while the UK remains subject to travel and social distancing restrictions, some local authority customers are choosing to defer certain elements of work that are deemed of a lower priority........

Whilst the short-term outlook remains uncertain,

the Group is confident of completing these deferred works when conditions return to normal and our longer-term prospects remain very positive"

ie. at present the co. is being heavily affected

[smithie6] 24/4/2020 11:30

hmmm

I see the RNS in a more negative way

- turnover is being hit 'cause not allowed to work on various jobs

- trying to cut spending

- the debt is an on-going risk

- dirs have taken a pay cut

so personally I'm surprised to see the share price go up

(I think because of intentional ambigious or sweet wording)

[nico115] 24/4/2020 11:17

I'm sure they want to raise another 2m and get debt to 5m then it's off to the races David a great addition

[qs99] 24/4/2020 11:14

agreed, that is class, well done Bilby management for setting the right tone. Will produce no end of loyalty from workers I am sure.

[garyb01] 24/4/2020 11:05

Seems they have delivered on what they said they would... although would've been nice to hear about new secured new contracts to give shareholders and investors even more confidence going forward... all in all a good statement and leadership from David Bullen ...