Big Food Grp. Share Discussion Threads

[robbie_3] 28/11/2004 01:39

I would be cautious about getting straight back in if this deal collapsed - I remember only too well trying to catch this falling knife once before, red everywhere. Probably wait till the dust settled. I still don't see this deal collapsing though - too much to lose by both parties imo.

(Holding gwp as well as asm - dyor).

[jimmyloser] 27/11/2004 22:02

Bigface....Medisys...the hour is nigh....but what do I know??

[chaudr] 27/11/2004 21:14

Bigface egg and gwp are good ones to get into
If BFP does hit 60p would you buy at that price?

[bigface] 27/11/2004 20:19

If I were in charge of BFG I would ask Malcolm Walker to be CEO and terminate the talks with Bauger Grp. I abhore dithering - Philip Green was quicker deciding how to deal with his multi million bid for M&S.

I sold out at 95p because the balance sheet is very negative after the pension fund and intagibles are taken into account. (-77m on my calculation)

Psychology not business is driving teh price at teh moment. the hope for a bid keeping it up and the fear of a collapse of the bid keeping it down.

If you think the bid will go ahead you may get 90p share + the div in my opinion, but if the deal is off then 60p isn't impossible in the current climate.

Note that Tesco is taking sales off everyone but Asda.

I Currently hold no UK shares any tips are welcolm.

[factsonly] 26/11/2004 15:22

There have been a lot of leaks and rumours spread about the deal, putting the offer down... probably leaked by Bauger-side to drag the price down. I hope the management send in fax to them saying "After due consideration, the management group of Big Food Group Plc have decided to terminate all takeover discussions with Baugar unless they submit an offer closer to NAV/share" otherwise the management will continue wasting time which they can use to turn the business around.

[chaudr] 24/11/2004 21:17

Is now the time to buy Bigface?

[bigface] 23/11/2004 23:32

This is being walked down brilliantly. Stick to real value PE NAV if in any doubt about Baugers intentions. Prudently you might want to deduct the Booker Goodwill (or a part of it) from the Pension deficit inclusive total.

[robbie_3] 23/11/2004 15:15

Small investors that can should hold on tight imo and not play into Bauger/MW's hands by selling out and delivering BFP's share price on a plate.

I guess there may be shorting on recent news but I can't see the share price dropping to 80p target as investors recognise the opportunity to go long at these levels. Bauger with 22% will not want to walk away and sensible investors already know this.

I would also have been surprised if due diligence had been a quick process, of course the longer this goes on the more disaffected shareholders become and the cheaper the deal. Only then will Bauger carve and sell off BFP making a nice little profit at the expense of small shareholders. That's what Bauger is good at. I also wonder how hard Grimsey is honestly working for small inverstors? If this deal with Bauger goes through no doubt Grimsey will do very nicely out of it.

Bauger currently hold the cards but at some point soon they will have to show them. No amount of sounding out beforehand can ensure there are not others out there wishing to join the table. Some may remember the Kingfisher offer before Wall Mart's takeover of Asda. Bauger with 22% wins either way.

Holding.

[25guilderbag] 23/11/2004 13:50

NUMIS CUTS BIG FOOD TARGET

Brokerage Numis says it has cut its price target on food retailer Big Food Group BFP.L to 80 pence from 85p, as no offer for it from Icelandic investment company Baugur has yet emerged.

"The initial announcement that the two parties were talking came out on 17th September - over two months ago. With no firm offer emerging as yet, that suggests that due diligence has not gone as smoothly as it might have done," Numis said in a research note.

Numis kept a "sell" rating on Big Food shares.

[bigface] 22/11/2004 20:17

12m shares traded - whos selling?

[fatmansays] 22/11/2004 12:30

Desparately needing Morphine - pain deepening sharply

[robbie_3] 22/11/2004 10:58

Time for the brave to top up?

Broken 90p, MW must be laughing.

[robbie_3] 22/11/2004 09:19

A sell recommendation in Friday's IC citing a 20% downside if Bauger walks away. Still holding and hoping there may be other interested parties.

[factsonly] 21/11/2004 21:35

Article/speculation on deal value:


I think the management should walk away from the deal... Bauger will be stuck with what stock they have anyway... if they back out then the stock price would drop and they (Bauger) won't be able to sell at much profit and would only be able to offload them at a discount too. Whereas the management could offer to offload a few more stores to other competitors and return some cash (nearer to NAV per share) to shareholders if the deal falls through.

I don't have much shares, but will definitely vote against anything below £1 per share. It's the principle of not selling out below NAV per share, because in theory BFG can break itself up and get NAV per share back minus a small percentage in breakup costs, but given the level of competition for more retail space, I can see a few other groups paying small premiums for a large number of BFP store/sites.

[bigface] 19/11/2004 10:37

Yes Fatman and the small store concept is the way the Supermarket sector is going. With walker on board the Bauger Food Group would probably be off-loadable to Asda and make Bauger a nice return.

I agree with you about the logic of the bid but it is a question of the price and the extent you trust Walker & Bauger to do whats best for shareholders.

You sound like a brave man Fatman and you do have to trade out of these situations ,but 200K seems rather a lo of money 20% of your portfolio? In your shoes I'd try to offload (at least half) on the anticipation of a near term bid at the next time BFP spikes (97p would be good for you).

I have switch into Somerfield which is stuffed with assets as far as I can see and some of which are not in the books fully. Sales up 1.2% to 061104 if you strip out the effect of commissions!! Not brilliant, but compared with BFG's performance?

All the very best fellow fatty.

[fatmansays] 19/11/2004 10:08

It's way past the time that Baugur would have needed to walk away from BFG. It must be concluded they are genuine about taking BFG out. To take out BFG they will need the bid recommended by the BFG Board. It would not seem logical for the BFG Board to be recommending a bid some 15p+ less than the indicative offer of 110p.

Nervous, but still at the table. :-)



Bigface : Take your point about negative £70m when Goodwill stripped out. However, dont believe Bauger are buying BFG for their asset position - more likely interested in underlying profit multiple (lowish) and Turnover £5bn.

[kingdwg] 18/11/2004 15:29

You are absolutely right fatman and it's more than 600k added since the last RNS governed by the 1% rule it's around 1.16 million so there must have been earlier Rule 8 announcements. edit: should have said well spotted! UK Wire filters out the Rule 8s.

[fatmansays] 18/11/2004 13:15

Rule 8 RNS 13.10pm

Is that Fidelity adding another 600K + to their existing large holding of 5%+.

Any thoughts ?

[robbie_3] 18/11/2004 12:17

Bauger still playing chess.

Aww the suspense (yawn).

[expert363] 17/11/2004 14:32

if walker returns i wonder if he will reinstate the malcom walker day in leiu....
The management are not liking the chance that walker will return especially after he went they were slagging him off at every reason.

if he buys the store will he buy one at get one free!

[fatmansays] 17/11/2004 13:01

Doubled holding to 200K (averaging 97p)........begining to hurt a tad.

[bigface] 17/11/2004 12:52

Possibly fatmat - u in profit?

[fatmansays] 17/11/2004 12:40

Drifting down...........Could I be dealt a hard lesson here !

[bigface] 16/11/2004 22:32

Hope Walker does step in Kingdwg.