Betfair Grp Share Discussion Threads

[brownie69] 12/3/2011 20:42

Website keeps crashing. If its a tech company its a cr@p one. Heres a thread from their own forum. 366 comments!

[e-venturer] 12/3/2011 18:30

It's like closing the shop door during trading hours. How many times can it happen?

[nellie1973] 08/3/2011 13:35

broker upgrade

[billytkid2] 08/3/2011 10:16

BarCap update:

BETFAIR GROUP PLC
Earnings upgrades from offshore licensing
Q3 revenues slightly ahead, upgrades from change to UK license: Betfair (1-OW, PT
1300p) reported Q3 revenues this morning slightly ahead of our expectations, and also
announced that its Betting Exchange will operate from a Gibraltar license, saving the
company c.£20m of gross profit tax p. a. This leads to an EPS uplift of 16% in FY12, and
21% in FY 13. Our SOTP valuation is unchanged due to the recent de-rating of peer
group comparables, however Betfair remains our top pick of European gaming stocks.
16% EPS uplift in FY 12, 21% in FY 13: The new gross profit tax rate of 1% in Gibraltar
will lead to a saving of c.£20m per annum, however the cost of running multiple data
centres in FY12 will lead to a net benefit of c.£10m, increasing to £20m in FY13. The
company will continue to voluntarily pay the horseracing levy, and we update our
forecasts for the increased levy rate which will increase levy payments by c.1m p.a.
Results slightly ahead of expectations: Net gaming revenue for the core business of
£76.1m is slightly ahead of our estimate of £74.1m, and total core Betfair revenue of
£77m compares to our estimate or £74.8m. This was driven by a resilient performance
in sports, despite the adverse weather, and strong growth in games, offset by poker
weakness post-migration. Management remains confident that Core Betfair will deliver
an outcome for FY 11within the range of market expectations. Current consensus
adjusted EBITDA for the core business ranges from £71.6m to £77m (BarCap £73.2m).
Valuation: We have a 1-Overweight recommendation on Betfair, with a 1300p price
target. We retain our price target despite the increase in earnings estimates, as we
reflect the recent de-rating of peer group comparables in our sum of the parts
valuation. The stock is trading on 8.9x calendarised 2011 EV/EBITDA, falling to 5.1x in
2012, and 16x calendarised 2011 PE, falling to 9.6x in 2012.

[lennonsalive] 08/3/2011 10:13

What a short punt?

[midasmonkey] 08/3/2011 10:10

I think its well worth a punt at this level.

[montyhedge] 01/3/2011 13:19

When floated they tried to say this is a tech play, it must be the only tech company affected because racing been called off due to the weather, lol

[lennonsalive] 01/3/2011 08:34

I'm I reading this right a market cap of 940m?

[brownie69] 28/2/2011 20:38

Management are a shambles here. No experience as gaming operators or of running a public company. Mistake after mistake.

[montyhedge] 25/2/2011 15:40

Seems to me this company still run ha a private company not as a public company, shareholder own the company not the management.

[e-venturer] 23/2/2011 16:34

I actually agree with a target price under £5.I feel the current management have no idea how to run a company properly.

The perception that betfair has created is that even if you are lucky enough to win then they will do everything to get more than their fair share.

[montyhedge] 23/2/2011 15:49

I can see under 500p coming.

[jimmy321] 23/2/2011 15:49

It states.....

Action

The ad must not appear again in its current form....

Betfair should eat the losses and pay the players back thier winnings only then can they start to repair the damage and work to be a reputable company.

[yopooni] 23/2/2011 15:42

another magnificent triumph

[wjccghcc] 08/2/2011 22:49

In the early days, I remember the site used to be unstable for a week at a time and yet they still dominate the market.

debanville, the competition have been trying for 5 years to make inroads into their market position and the only thing they've succeeded at is losing a lot of money while failing to do so. It would require a huge investment and the returns aren't there - just ask Betdaq.

Whether or not the valuation is justified is a different matter. IMHO, the main threat here is regulation not competition.

[e-venturer] 08/2/2011 21:15

I don't see many people rushing to buy betfair shares. I just can't understand why they have had so many issues for so long in regards to keeping their website up.

Do they expect their current technical difficulties to enticed people into using Lmax?

Also I think more countries will be looking at stricter regulations of online gambling like the uk has highlighted.

[wjccghcc] 08/2/2011 18:57

debanville, Betfair have 10 years of experience in building/running an exchange as well as 90% of the global liquidity. They also own TVG - the largest legal online horserace wagering and TV network in the USA. If America opens up (and California and New Jersey appear to be), I can't see US competitors getting much of a foothold in their market. The margins just don't justify the investment needed to overcome the snowball liquidity effect.

[debanville] 08/2/2011 17:07

if the american market is opened up or any other significant market ,i am sure we will see greater competitors come along,what then for the sp

[25babies] 08/2/2011 16:58

Betdaq does not have the liquidity. People only go there (and WBX) in extremis.

What some of the posters here do not appreciate is that for many punters their only outlet is Betfair for a reasonable bet and the only place to lay. In effect, Betfair has an almost monopoly position in a growing sub-sector of the market. However, the company was vastly overvalued at the IPO. Hence the current fall.

I have no idea what the floor value of this company is - however as long as no significant competitor comes along they will stay in a strong position.

[iansco] 07/2/2011 14:15

After the shambles this weekend I am surprised their shares havent taken a hit this morning. The site was constantly going down on one of the busiest sports days so far in the year. At times it was down for huge long periods with only a 'sorry for the inconvenience' landing page greeting customers. Left a lot of customers very angry and drove them in droves to Betdaq judging by the forum.

[brownie69] 05/2/2011 13:31

Re commission Betfair dont like winners either they have a super commission rate (ie higher rate) they impose on clients who they think are long term winners becauise they recognise the threat these guys are to their business model. ie they kill the fish quickly causing the high levels of customer churn that they have.

my TP is 750p here.