Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[rcturner2] 05/4/2017 07:43

TU from Telford very positive.

[1gw] 04/4/2017 18:24

I somehow doubt it. But if the share price does fall back below 29.50, presumably they'll be buying back again.

Telford Homes TU tomorrow to shed (hopefully positive) light on a part of the London market.

Then the next step in the Bovis Homes situation to come.

[catswhiskas] 04/4/2017 17:52

Yes they have used shareholders money to buy back shares up to £32 in order to get the share price up so he can sell a shed load for millions more than he would have got if he hadn't used shareholders dividends to get the share price up.This stinks instis will hammer this tomorrow wouldn't be surprised to see £25 again here.

[1gw] 04/4/2017 17:49

I thought the highest buyback price paid had been 29.50 ex-div, or 29.25 cum-div (so 30.10 incl divi).

So he's managed to get more than the highest buyback price hasn't he?

[jrphoenixw2] 04/4/2017 17:33

No kidding, selling 1 million at 31.10p
So they've been using our div to buy-back at up to 3200, despite which he's folding a shed load in a single transaction, perhaps a 'placing' of some kind.

[catswhiskas] 04/4/2017 17:14

That's a big vote of confidence obviously pidgley thinks this is a good time to get out selling 1 million shares !

[jrphoenixw2] 04/4/2017 14:04

TR-1: NOTIFICATION OF MAJOR INTEREST IN SHARES
First Eagle Inv Mngmnt
Trade = +approx 150k shares to take holding to 11.02%
dd Friday 31-Mar, ie US quarter-end.

Heartening to see that FEIM, buying on behalf of mostly US pension schemes under their management, is taking this as time to increase their holding yet more.

[this_is_me] 29/3/2017 22:16

It is coming up to the end of the tax year which can have an effect.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 29/3/2017 17:29

Would only say that it's both month and quarter end on Friday so one does tend to see a bit of profit taking in those shares which have been great performers like BKG - so it should not be too unexpected.

However do remember that the recent earnings guidance given by the company for 2017 and 2018 was sufficient to justify at least a 10% upgrade to consensus and a share price over 3200p

[2350220] 29/3/2017 15:11

Has anyone got an idea as to why we've dropped so far today?
John

[jrphoenixw2] 24/3/2017 14:10

To last night's close BKG was +3.7% week-to-date [after +5.47% the previous week]. Vs the FTSE-100 week-to-date to last night being -1.1% and +1.12% the prior week. 2-week view = Market flat, BKG up 9.2%.

It being Friday perhaps profit taking was on the cards, esp. as this pm has the risk of Trump's first major policy test re: Trumpcare. The latter might be delayed, but whilst it remains pending the markets will be nervous as Trumps first major policy needs to pass, or any future ones are thus thrown into doubt IMO. In fact in the face of all of that^ I'm not surprised the stock is pulling-back today... In fact I hope BKG aren't buying-back today, no point fighting the wider market mood today IMHO.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 24/3/2017 13:02

Just bit of profit taking across whole sector before next let higher imo. BKG rarely back at pre-referendum levels and a much better company today than many thought it was last year

[2350220] 24/3/2017 12:44

Shame, it looks like we're giving back all our lovely gains from yesterday.
I'm hoping that it's just a standard pullback.
John

[1gw] 24/3/2017 08:13

I'm watching Carillion closely for signs of a rush for the exits among the shorters.

But in order to have a short squeeze you need to have a catalyst. It's difficult to see one at the moment for Carillion, absent credible takeover rumours.

With BKG, and UK housebuilders more generally, though I think there is at least potential for a squeeze in the relatively near term. We've had "lower for longer" on interest rates for some time now, so that in itself isn't enough I think. But there has been a string of positive trading updates recently and we have signs of M&A in the sector with the Bovis situation. Although I suspect Bovis is a bit of a one-off rather than the start of a trend, given the relatively benign land market, a decent auction on Bovis combined with the signs of returning/sustained confidence in the UK newbuild housing market through the spring selling season could just be enough for the shorts to capitulate, causing the squeeze.

[jrphoenixw2] 24/3/2017 07:55

CLLN, declared shorts -23.2% woah!
Shares in issue 430mm, * 23.2% = 100mm, Ave Vol 4.6mm, SIR=21.8 lol!
Going to be interesting to observe the volatility in the px around the time of the next earnings release. I used to have a CLLN position several years ago, rather glad I no longer have, way too much potential for drama in that one for me...

[rcturner2] 24/3/2017 07:26

You should have a look at the size of the short on Carillion.

[jrphoenixw2] 24/3/2017 07:20

The above = 2.33%, with total shares in issue of 138mm = 3.22 million short.
Avg daily vol = 786k, so short interest ratio = 3220/786 = 4.1

It's just this week I've learned that a SIR of 5/+ is commonly thought to be a short-squeeze 'panic button'. I.e. if shorts decide they need to cover, the risk is high it might take 5/+ sessions to do so, and that's when a squeeze is on. With additional sundry undeclared small shorts it wouldn't surprise me if the SIR is still up around there. And we almost certainly were before the recent declared short-covering. I suppose that's a risk of shorting a relatively low volume [FTSE-250] stock; especially one where there's a strategic buy-back programme in place.

[1gw] 23/3/2017 17:34

Disclosed short positions.

It looks like the FCA has now sorted the gremlins and recent references to Oxford and Paloma appear to have been removed from the spreadsheet.

Current declared shorters are therefore:

0.97% Odey (as of 20th March)
0.69% Blue Mountain (2nd March)
0.67% Pictet (15th March)

So on 20th March Odey went up a bit and Adelphi went down about the same amount (and below the threshold).

[fenners66] 23/3/2017 17:14

Zho - LOL as I got to the word "Colin"

[zho] 23/3/2017 15:43

jrphoenix,

IC features house builders this week. BKG is their pick.

[jrphoenixw2] 23/3/2017 15:41

Anyone know what's stoking the shares oven this pm, sectorial read-across or specific news?