Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[raffles the gentleman thug] 23/3/2017 13:59

I bet it's not bellend.

In doing your calculations do heed to the words "at least £3bn pretax" and not the plain ordinary £3bn reported in the press

[handykart] 23/3/2017 13:22

What sort of person calls themselves Bellend ?

[dim the bellend] 23/3/2017 13:15

The rising share price isnt being altogether helpful in that regard.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 23/3/2017 12:13

wasn't talking the sector dim bellend ... was only talking BKG too which you seem oblivious to the fact that they have only just raised earnings guidance by at least an incremental one billion pounds yet not commented on payout.

How is the short going my friend ??

[dim the bellend] 23/3/2017 12:10

I cant see the sector raising dividends with so much uncertainty over Brexit.
Quite the opposite imo.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 23/3/2017 11:53

My own personal view - which many may not share - is that the dividend guidance continues to need upgrading by at least £500m or 72p per year over the forecast period to 2021.

When this happens the effective dividend yield will be a sector leading 8.3% even at this price level of 3254p

[2350220] 23/3/2017 11:30

Blimey, this ain't hanging around😀
John

[this_is_me] 23/3/2017 10:24

Paloma Partners Management Company are a hedge fund that focus on relative values. This suggests that they have shorted BKG as part of a complex trade set up.



It would be better if the FCA also told us the total of the private shorts disclosed to them as well as listing the public ones.(Remember positions above 0.2% have to be privately disclosed to the FCA)

[1gw] 22/3/2017 17:32

Another odd short positions spreadsheet this evening.

Oxford is now shown on the historic tab as increasing from 2.62% on 17th March to 2.76% on 20th [edit: and then down to 0.04% on 21st, so] has disappeared from the current tab. Adelphi Capital has also disappeared from the current tab having decreased from 0.62% to 0.49% on 20th according to the historic tab.

Meanwhile Paloma Partners appears (for the first time) on the current tab with a 1.97% position on 15th March.

Gremlins in the FCA spreadsheet I suspect. A pity, because it would be nice to know what is really happening given the activity in the sector (string of positive TUs and Bovis M&A activity).

[raffles the gentleman thug] 22/3/2017 12:14

my thoughts exactly 1gw ... I wish it were correct to be honest but I very much doubt it.

[1gw] 22/3/2017 11:57

I'm not convinced that Oxford position is correct. 0.62% would be more plausible. 2.62% of BKG appears to dwarf Oxford's other disclosed short positions in terms of value (i.e. % x market cap).

I wouldn't be surprised to see it corrected in the next few days.

[dim the bellend] 22/3/2017 08:50

You were saying?

[zho] 21/3/2017 18:02

>>They're just following me imo.>>

A case of the bellend leading the bellend then?

[dim the bellend] 21/3/2017 16:54

They're just following me imo.

[1gw] 21/3/2017 16:19

I notice Millennium has gone back up significantly on its Bovis short and Citadel has appeared on the Bovis short list as well (both as of Friday).

So it looks like it's not just Odey and Dim deciding things are getting a bit overheated with the housebuilders.

[1gw] 21/3/2017 16:13

Disclosed shorts.

Oxford Asset Management has suddenly appeared on the list with a short position of 2.62% as of Friday (17th March).

If this is correct, then total declared short position is now nearly 5.6%.

[jrphoenixw2] 21/3/2017 08:49

Odey increases his short, meanwhile [17-Mar] Numis reiterates it's buy rating with a 12-Mo target-px of 3844p, and this morning Deutsche reiterates it's buy rating target 3571p.

@Gbengus, well you're doing better than hedge-fund 'wunderkind' Crispin Odey :)

[gbengus50] 21/3/2017 08:41

Last week I read about Tony Pidgley on CityAm and I bought small units of BKG at 2930.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 21/3/2017 08:29

Already been discussed a thousand times has it not ...Either he's got a sector pair trade on or he's lost his marblesNothing more to be said on the matter is there ?

[r ball] 21/3/2017 07:59

Odey shorting = buy indicator?Discuss.

[1gw] 20/3/2017 17:20

Odey apparently feeling courageous though.

Back up to 0.97% short (from 0.85%) today according to the FCA spreadsheet.

[1gw] 20/3/2017 16:00

Interesting to see today's 8.3's from Blackrock on BVS & GFRD in that context...

[1gw] 20/3/2017 15:31

Bellway interims tomorrow, Crest Nicholson AGM on Thursday, Takeover code deadline for Bovis offers (RDW & GFRD) 9th April.

It feels to me like it would have to be a fairly "courageous" investor to leave a short on a UK housebuilder through all that.

[dim the bellend] 20/3/2017 13:01

Good post Shank.
I'll cover soon when I'm in the money.

[shanksaj] 20/3/2017 10:04

"I shorted this today. A rising interest rate environment wont be helpful for this company. Target £20 or lower by year end."

Dim,
Companies which are in debt are good to short when interest rates are going up because the cost of interest payments on the debt will increase.

Companies which pay no dividend are good to short because whenever a dividend is paid a shorter in that company has to pay up.

Companies which have little free cash are good to short because they cannot start share buy back schemes to support the share price.

With Berkeley, it has a lot of free cash: it can defend its share price; if interest rates go up it will earn more on that cash; it will be paying up to £2 per share per year in dividends which you as a shorter will have to cough up.

You might be right, but its a big risk you are taking. As interest rates rise the cost of development land will decline setting Berkeley up for when interest rates start to decline.

Its good to have cash in this business... and Berkeley has lots of it.