Belhaven Grp. Share Discussion Threads

[diogenesj] 29/11/2004 13:00

Outstanding results, and should lead to an increase in forecasts. Shares still look good value to me.

Often wonder why this board is so quiet, but I suppose there's not a lot to say.
:-)

[brownie69] 29/11/2004 11:17

Just joined the party on the back of excellent results, smokin ban something of a myth as others have pointed out the Irish experience suggests minimal impact. There is an upside too, the likely lower cost of aquiring new outlets.

[salpara111] 29/11/2004 09:29

Well, that was about as upbeat as could be expected and very calming noises about the smoking ban. I think that I will add back the portion of my stake I off loaded at about 445.

[domtheone] 29/11/2004 08:17

I wonder what would happen if we got some real volume...

[edmundshaw] 27/11/2004 17:30

Just a sip, Dom, just a sip...

Still looking for £6 in around 18 months if the smoking ban doesn't affect the company too much. I expect some kind of statement on this issue along with the results.

[domtheone] 27/11/2004 12:55

I hope Fridays rise is just a taste of things to come Monday...

[paulf99] 24/11/2004 19:43

Another factor which maybe unsettling is the FD appointment. Anyone heard whether a new FD has been selected yet?

[domtheone] 17/11/2004 10:31

Results in 12 days. Hopefully an end to the sagging share price....

[edmundshaw] 16/11/2004 13:55

Hmm, another drop in BHG - because of the ban on smoking in English pubs?

Someone should do some research!!!! :-)

[salpara111] 11/11/2004 09:18

I think that the difference in this case is that we dont have to guess as to what will happen as you could not have a country that is closer in so many respects to scotland as Ireland. Before the ban there the pub trade and brewers were wailing that it would have a catastrophic effect on the industry with hundreds of pubs being put out of business. Now that the ban has been in force for over a year we have as good a picture of the likely outcome as we could possibly ask for and that result is rather less dramatic than was suggested prior to the ban ie a drop in sales of 3%.
As an Irish person who went to university in scotland I am personally pretty comfortable that the results in scotland will be pretty similar.
In an ideal world of course there would not be an outright ban but a limited one however on the basis of the best evidence we have it is not going to be catastrophic. I would also imagine that the upcoming ban will have an effect on the purchase price of new licenced premises which would be beneficial for a company seeking to acquire new premises.
Anyway, I guess the truth will out eventually but as it wont be enacted until the spring of 2006 at earliest I dont intend to get too wound up at present.

[samg99] 10/11/2004 19:09

Well most of what appears on this thread, as with all threads, is opinion.....surely that goes without saying. Stan has made a good case.....

....in my opinion ;-)

[edmundshaw] 10/11/2004 18:13

in your opinion...

[stan] 10/11/2004 17:34

i'd guess that the majority of people who do go out to the pub in Scotland are in fact smokers too...so my hunch is that this could have quite a devastating effect on BHG's profits as a lot of ppl will now simply stay at home.

Whether the ban's idiotic or not, i'm afraid it's a fact of life now and the reality is that it will become the norm everywhere soon after which there will be no going back.

This coupled with the prospect of much higher costs next year, an ever increasing minimum wage (the unions will be asking for at least £6/hr soon,) and an increasingly competitive market in which BHG could easily be squeezed out, means that the share price has some way to fall yet.

Pretty dark times loom ahead for the pubcos i'm afraid and the shares would be best avoided.

[edmundshaw] 10/11/2004 11:41

Salpara111 and mac, both good comments.

A 3% drop in t/o is going to be more than made up for by 50% increase in pub estate; and besides, some BHG profits come from the contract to bottle Tennent's Lager, as well as some other Interbrew products. Contract packaging for Interbrew provides the Group with a useful contribution to profit and helps maintain unit production and packaging overheads at satisfactory rates (quoting the final results).

The smoking ban is only not in the price for those not paying attention (radio 4 came on strong on this in the morning), so selling by the (formerly) ignorant...

I shall also look to add when the selling dies down, probably shortly before or on results.

[mac] 10/11/2004 11:31

Given that we know good results are due at the end of the month. This drop to support looks like a thin market, or is it? Just SL probably, but they are not fire sellers, so someone will be buying too.

As for the smoking ban, I think or thought it was in the price anyway??? It is idiotic, anyhow. Why not let H&S regs rule the day. If lack of adequate ventilation makes working environment unsafe, OK do something about it. But to ban all smoking does appear very extreme.

Maybe it's time to ban parliament building, esp as it's almost as expensive for all of us as smoking.

[salpara111] 10/11/2004 11:09

Having sold part of my holding at about 440 I would have to say that I am sorely tempted to re-invest at this level.
The general feeling in Ireland is that the ban has taken about 3% off sales and if that were replicated in Scotland then I feel that a 19% drop in the share price, given that the company is still steadily growing, is more than overdone.
I guess I will monitor for a little while longer as there seems to be rather a lot of sentiment driving the price at present rather than fundamentals.

[domtheone] 10/11/2004 10:35

SL still disposing.

Every time this is mentioned positvely in Shares magazine the price plummets a few days later!!

Isn't this getting a touch silly for a company with such a track record.......

Maybe the Directors could buy back the shares they sold a few months back.....

What about a larger player coming in......

[samg99] 10/11/2004 08:34

Suspect that the share price fall might just have something to do with this idiotic smoking ban that the Scottish parliament is proposing.....

[domtheone] 09/11/2004 09:35

Thanks. That'll probably give me one more time to average down to nearer the price of today. Then it's a case of sit tight and wait :-)

[edmundshaw] 08/11/2004 12:15

From the last trading update:

Belhaven, which will announce its interim results for the six month period to 26
September 2004 on Monday 29 November, has expanded its Scottish estate to 250
pubs, having added more than 50 units to the portfolio in the past 12 months.

Good progress towards goal of 300 pubs by year end. Results in just over 3 weeks.

Institutional drag on the share price cannot last for ever!

[domtheone] 08/11/2004 11:55

Selling still going on..
H/Y results due in the next month or so.

Where will the share price be by xmas I wonder...........

[edmundshaw] 11/10/2004 15:41

...and there we go. Standard Life has sold another 275k shares (over £1.25m including the last sale). They still hold over 3% of BHG, so unclear if they are top slicing or will continue selling.

Their reasons for selling are do not alter my perception of the investability of this share. Indeed, it makes the share price drop explicable, removing any residual worries about the reasons.

[edmundshaw] 07/10/2004 10:05

Smoking ban brings in non-smokers, and drinkers don't stop drinking, so the effect is small.

Quote from Sunday Mail:

"One of the major Irish drinks companies, C&C, reported it had suffered only a two per cent drop in sales since the ban was introduced.
The company say smoke-free bars are just one factor in that drop"

Clearly BHG is more than 2% undervalued! That said, there's never a rush to get into a share like this - until it goes up! And who knows when that will be? If you think you can get it cheaper, go for it!

I guess a large (institutional?) seller who is not balanced by a buyer; I expect this will change in due course...

[stan] 06/10/2004 22:22

Hmm...reading between the lines there didn't seem to be any hint of danger to come, so why no bigger price rise one wonders? Somethings holding the market back it seems.

Could be the big increase in costs that will occur with increasing energy prices which are hitting others in the sector, the expected continued hikes in the minimum wage, and the move away from pub drinking to more home consumption and wine drinking.

Could also be the sure-to-happen blanket UK ban on smoking in public places which has been brought in by Liverpool and this no doubt will hit pubcos hard.

No need to rush in just yet methinks.