Begbies Traynor Share Discussion Threads

[r2oo] 19/5/2022 08:38

Upgrades on back of positive year-end updateWe have upgraded our forecasts for the current year to 30 April 2022, post a year-end trading update which anticipates results 'comfortably ahead of market expectations'. Our upgrades comprise a 3.3% increase in revenue, 4.7% in Adjusted PBT, and reflect a full 12 months' ownership of the larger acquisitions secured during FY21 and just as important, their successful integration and strong performance during the period. Both divisions produced very positive performances. Revenue from Business Recovery and Financial Advisory was c 35% ahead, and Property Advisory segment revenue was c 19% higher. The group ended FY22 with £4.7m of net cash (FY21: £3.0m), after payment of £7.5m of acquisition and earnouts during the period. The core message, worth reiterating, is that BEG's growth is not predicated on recovery in the UK insolvency market. Its financial advisory and property services consultancy operations are substantial and complementary to its business recovery arm. This update and FY22e upgrades reinforce our view on underlying value and a deserved higher rating for the shares. Prior to detailed results due 19 July, we retain our long-held 165p / share fair value estimate.

[2vdm] 19/5/2022 07:50

Relieved to see the results, which confirms the sell off was overdone. Let's see what happens today

[edmonda] 19/5/2022 07:28

It does read well !

Equity Development upgrade forecasts for the year to end April ’22 and ahead of detailed results in July keep their fair value of 165p / share.

Full note and audio summary here:

[this_is_me] 19/5/2022 07:19

Great update; people will be begging for shares after that!

[kingjames] 18/5/2022 17:38

Didn't pick that up... explains the rise! Many thanks adipsia1

[adipsia1] 17/5/2022 13:24

Agreed concerning movement towards restructuring firms. Superb results from FRP today with their stock closing outside trading range and trending to new highs today.

[podgyted] 08/5/2022 10:11

According to the news (certain amount of speculation) the difference between the Morrisons' bid and EG is that the latter includes immediate repayment to the banks whereas Morrisons were offering repayment over a few years.

This seems to represent a hardening of the banks attitude as they are going to face some difficult questions over the pension liability from Government.

So I can see that this is just the start of a lot of zombie companies going into admin.

[kingjames] 06/5/2022 13:25

McColl's in admin. Per my mate in distressed PE, the wave of distress hasn't started yet, as banks / HMRC are still unwilling to pull the plug on bigger businesses, but suspects that can only last for so long.

[route1] 05/5/2022 15:14

Completely agree with that, especially after the rate rise today and the inevitable ones to follow , which in time should light a fire under the share price

[topvest] 29/4/2022 15:05

They are going to be rather busy for at least the rest of 2022 in my view. There are numerous headwinds coming in to play - almost certain we are going into a recession, hopefully a mild one.

[edmonda] 29/4/2022 12:16

Covered in BBC Business section too :

[cirlbunting1] 29/4/2022 10:05

Interesting RNS. Portfolio tilt to corporate restructuring firms?

[stevieweebie2] 29/4/2022 09:13

Latest reg flag alert sees me buy back in this morning.

[edmonda] 26/4/2022 07:56

Well spotted r2oo , and for those wishing to read / listen to the Equity Development note just published about the latest UK Govnt insolvency statistics - just visit:

[r2oo] 26/4/2022 07:49

Insolvency data underpins our fair valueThe latest UK Government insolvency statistics data makes sobering reading, and suggests that BEG, which handles more corporate appointments by volume than any other UK insolvency practitioner, will find its services in increasing demand over the next 18 months. The data confirmed 2,114 registered company insolvencies in March 2022, more than double the figure a year earlier (March '21: 999) and 34% above its pre-pandemic equivalent (March '19: 1,582). The majority (87%) comprised Creditors' Voluntary Liquidations (CVLs), twice March '21 and 62% above March '19. The latest data confirms that the underlying direction of travel is broadly as predicted. It reflects the gradual withdrawal of government measures designed to protect businesses against creditors during the pandemic, now exacerbated by rising inflation, staff shortages and falling retail sales. There has been an increase in insolvencies across all appointment types. The shares have drifted in a nervous stock-market - possibly insolvency numbers have taken longer to pick up than some had anticipated - but BEG remains lowly rated and well below our retained 165p/share fair value estimate.

[boonkoh] 25/4/2022 09:42

Indeed, there's starting to be momentum in the compulsory liquidations and administrations, albeit still below 2019 levels.Unless Rishi comes out with yet more zombie support... But all signs looks like he's going to sit tight and hold the goodies for consumer help closer to elections.

[tightfist] 23/4/2022 17:54

Hi, interesting volume and slight lift yesterday in what was generally a fairly gloomy day on the market.There are some interesting links on the MANO thread which suggest that the insolvency sector has finally (after a long wait!) reached lift-off, and confirms the nascent uplift recently noted by Steve Cooklin. Cheers, Tightfist

[kingjames] 21/4/2022 13:28

The fall out post global financial crisis was less than expected in terms of insolvencies. I think people may be fearing the same here, given it's taking longer than expected for complicated administrations to increase. I reckon they'll pick up, but like everything else it's taking longer than usual. It's difficult enough for good businesses at the moment! The string of acquisitions should give them enough staff capacity when things pick up. A quick news search shows Begbies' activity in admins in Feb / March, but not sure what is normal.

[mr dexy] 21/4/2022 08:36

Hi All,

Be interesting to hear if there's any mention of staff supply issues in the next update.. a few companies have mentioned auditors requiring additional time to sign off numbers... and the recent MANO update hinted at it..

Undoubtedly there are huge increases to come in which liquidations and administrations which is great for BEG and the like...

Timing... as always will be key... interesting times ahead

Regards to all


Mr D

[2vdm] 21/4/2022 07:45

I think this will move upwards when we get the next trading update. The Covid effect of destroying/weakening some businesses will take some time to work through and then Begbies will have an even bigger pipeline of work imo.

[suetballs] 20/4/2022 14:15

At 105p this is pretty unloved.
I was hoping for something a lot higher by this time.
Suet

[topvest] 20/3/2022 12:21

Well 25 March is the day landlords can start evicting tennants again isn't it? It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few weeks: I suspect that some of the lockdown pain may unfortunately start to crystallise. Also the 10 year/2 year yield curve is close to inverting suggesting a recession later in the year. Both will be a tailwind for Begbies.

[edmundshaw] 11/3/2022 14:26

Also added recently. Brings up my average price from -5p to 8p, but hey I can live with that. There again I have been in this one since 2015...

[bend1pa] 11/3/2022 11:25

Also added recently. Brings up my average price from 86p to 96p,but happy with that. So far this has had a great track record of consistent increased EPS and divs pa. If share price falls back to near £1 again or below, I may consider going all-in.