Base Resources Investors - BSE

Base Resources Investors - BSE

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Stock Name Stock Symbol Market Stock Type
Base Resources Limited BSE London Ordinary Share
  Price Change Price Change % Stock Price Last Trade
0.25 1.54% 16.50 08:00:00
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
16.50 16.50 16.50 16.25
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janekane: It is a long call option they have borrowed the right to buy so many millions at a price agreed with the holder who believes the share price to stay at the price when the deal was struck (strike) some ones put their balls on the table in the knowledge of a massive rise The lender has also put their balls on the table expecting the share price to stagnate Derivatives are very complicated reams of rules and regulations Dealers love them with millions of CFDs costing idiots who deal them on the difference in the spread hefty losses in seconds Call options can be very good but not on AIM stock for small private investors You need to deal in millions to make it pay
dangersimpson2: You may be right. As investors, we like to think of ourselves as independent rational thinkers. However, too often we let the market reaction speak louder than our own analysis. We look at a company on a P/E of 40 and think "that must be a quality company if it is on that rating" or a company on a P/E of 8 and think "there must be something wrong with it". All the evidence points to both earnings growth and ROIC being highly mean-reverting. So sooner or later both the "quality company" and the "dog" end up on the same rating. Except the quality company has halved and the "dog" has doubled. The moral of the story is that if you believe the market to be inefficient then you have to form your own opinion and ignore the market's short-term opinion, which is often wrong. And if you don't believe that there are market a tracker.
brownmruk: The other simplistic issue is that some investors are put off by high yields just because they are anomalous.
dangersimpson2: It's just boring, that's why it is the price that it is. Kwale looks unexciting due to the low LoM and Toliara is too far away for the myopia of most invetsors. Also, HMS is a sector many mining investors don't follow or understand so it gets overlooked. It is fairly easy to model the cash flow. Mid case of FY22 production guidance is 430.5kt. They got $497/t in 21Q4 and we know the markets are tight going into FY22 so let's say $520/t for FY22 as a whole. Operating costs, let's say $150/t vs $148/t for 21Q4. Royalties are 7%, corporate, community & selling costs we can assume similar levels to FY21. Financing will be lower with the RCF repaid. Tax should be around 15% with the 10yr agreement still in place. Capex for Kwale is $15.8m as given on yesterday's conference call. So we end up with $114m FCF from Kwale, which reduces to c.$100m once you pay unallocated corporate costs and some tax on repatriation of funds out of Kenya. FY23 we can assume is similar if not higher due to market tightness. FY24 will be lower due to mining out the South Dune and move to Bumamani. so Let's say $50m FCF for then. So $250m+ FCF in 3 years vs $280m market cap. Of course, you have to NPV that cash and if the HMS market tanks then this won't be achieved but all the current signs point to upside risk to the pricing at the moment, not the downside. On top of this, you have Toliara which they paid $100m for and have invested c$50m to get to DFS. With a strong HMS pricing environment, I reckon they could sell this for $250m today if they wanted to and has an NPV of $500m+. If it cant be developed then it is, of course, worthless. However, you have to take a stochastic approach on this - I reckon there is at least an 80% chance that this gets the go-ahead in the next year. So the risked NPV is c$400m for Toliara. So to reiterate, the issue isn't that the value isn't there, it is that investors aren't willing to do even the basic work above to understand or view it as too risky to invest in at any price. Perhaps the only thing that will change their mind is continuous cash dividends. But if the perception changes, perhaps due to Toliara approval or simply that new production from Toliara or wider resources in the Kwale area finally arrives, then the re-rating to match the cash flow could be rapid and material.
marktime1231: All sorts of ways to study the results here ... hxxps:// The 4 cent divi is in AUD, so 2p ex-div 10 Sep payable 29 Sep. Need to study the report details especially outlook to judge whether this is worth a further add while still under 17p, or just sit back and enjoy the ride.
plasybryn: Anyone been successful in reclaiming their withheld tax on the BASE dividend? Such a parlarva. I've recently gone through the same ordeal with San Leon Energy registered in Ireland so hopeful the Australians will come through as well. But to attract investors the Co. needs to sort this out imo. It is an unsatisfactory situation.
brownmruk: Look at it this way, the ISA wrapper shelters a UK investor from paying UK tax on income from their investments. It doesn't provide an exemption from all taxes due by the companies you invest in.
brownmruk: Who are you with NTV? Interactive Investor credited mine the afternoon following the pay date.
dangersimpson2: Nice breakout - amazing what a dividend can do to focus investors minds on the level of undervalution here.
cpap man: Thursday 07 November, 2019 Base Resources Limited Toliara Project – Government of Madagascar statement AIM and Media Release 7 November 2019 BASE RESOURCES LIMITED Toliara Project – Government of Madagascar statement African mineral sands producer, Base Resources Limited (ASX & AIM: BSE) (Base Resources or the Company) advises that an official statement has been released by the Government of Madagascar requiring the suspension of on-the-ground activity at the Company’s Toliara Project whilst discussions on fiscal terms applying to the project are progressed. This development will not impact the Company’s progression of the Definitive Feasibility Study for the Toliara Project as all necessary on-ground works have been completed. The Definitive Feasibility Study remains on track for release in December 2019. Unfortunately, however, this suspension will impact the community development programs currently underway and the several hundred local Malagasy people who are presently undertaking training programs with the Toliara Project. This is clearly regrettable. The Toliara Project enjoys broad community support, locally, regionally and nationally, as the significant economic and social benefits are clear. While there were some early community protests, these have dissipated with an extensive communication program better explaining the project and the opportunity it represents. The few more recent localised events have represented illegal actions by a small minority that were dealt with by the Malagasy legal system. It is therefore disappointing that the Malagasy government has now stated this as a justification for requiring a suspension. The Company will continue to engage in a transparent and respectful dialogue with Government to deepen its understanding of the significant benefits of the project to Madagascar and secure agreement on mutually beneficial fiscal terms that represent a sound and sustainable basis on which the Toliara Project may proceed to development. A further update will be provided when discussions with Government have progressed. ENDS. For further information contact: James Fuller, Manager Communications and Investor Relations UK Media Relations Base Resources Tavistock Communications Tel: +61 (8) 9413 7426 Jos Simson and Barnaby Hayward Mobile: +61 (0) 488 093 763 Tel: +44 (0) 207 920 3150 Email: About Base Resources Base Resources is an Australian based, African focused, mineral sands producer and developer with a track record of project delivery and operational performance. The Company operates the established Kwale Operations in Kenya and is developing the Toliara Project in Madagascar. Base Resources is an ASX and AIM listed company. Further details about Base Resources are available at PRINCIPAL & REGISTERED OFFICE Level 1, 50 Kings Park Road West Perth, Western Australia, 6005 Email: Phone: +61 (0)8 9413 7400 Fax: +61 (0)8 9322 8912 NOMINATED ADVISOR RFC Ambrian Limited Stephen Allen Phone: +61 (0)8 9480 2500 JOINT BROKER Berenberg Matthew Armitt / Detlir Elezi Phone: +44 20 3207 7800 JOINT BROKER Numis Securities Limited John Prior / James Black / Paul Gillam Phone: +44 20 7260 1000
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