Baron Oil Share Discussion Threads

[gunsofmarscapone] 06/12/2018 12:46

Yes that is true grannyboy, there is a constant internal argument taking place. In a way it is not irrational. Evidence lies in the volatility and frequent extinction of junior oilers.

Things change, flexibilty is the key. I wish you success with your own methodology, if you have one.

[joetricky] 06/12/2018 11:22

COS, in my opinion, is a false indicator. Seismic will give an idea of the make up of the various layers of sand, rock, water and whatever else is down there and potential traps. If there has been a previously logged drill near by to confirm then all the better. As far as I'm concerned a drill has potential or it does not. I've been on drill sites where the on site geologists don't agree with each other. Ask a geologist what he thinks is down there and the answer is always the same 'We'll find out when we hit target depth.'

The added bonus with both of our drills is that the geologists have a very good idea of what layers are down there and they know that there are layers capable of holding oil. The question here is how good are the traps and how much oil has been trapped?

It's exciting times for boilers.

[grannyboy] 06/12/2018 10:55

GOM blows with the wind..And will be in and out on any rise or fall, so expect positive and negative posts from him into the drilling.

[gunsofmarscapone] 06/12/2018 10:43

Agree Hugo however all expo and appraisal wells are punts, you should never hold the original position size through the whole process. From that point of view Gcos provides useful arithmetical info to puntcalculate. LTH base holdings are fine but for me trading is critical, very few junior oilers will provide the small investor with value generation.

You are quite correct about the distinction though.

[hugomaracuya] 05/12/2018 23:59

But there is a HUGE difference between Chance of Success (CoS) and the Geological Chance of Success (GCoS)

The CoS takes into consideration all risks, and there being commercial hydrocarbons present.

The GCoS doesn't include whether any or how much hydrocarbons will be found, merely whether the drill will hit the right spot, and there will be the sands which the geologists predicted, whether there will be recoverable oil there or not.

So you can have a perfect drilling which hits the target, proves up the geology, finds the sands which they hope will be oil bearing, but can still be a dry hole or water, or traces of oil, but unrecoverable.

So to talk of 72% GCoS is a bit silly, and really doesn't mean very much. It doesn't mean 72% of finding oil, yet alone in commercial quantities or quality.

Lets not talk about the GCoS, but look at the CoS. That's more likely to give a truer picture of the risks.

[nlmbidc] 05/12/2018 19:12

GoM,

Can you send me a link that shows a GCOS of 72% for Colter?

Best GCOS I have seen is 56%

[gunsofmarscapone] 05/12/2018 16:30

cyclic Colter is 72%gcos and if volumes are sufficient commercialisation is straightforwards. To multiply 4 percentages and equal 72% is pretty much as good as it gets. Bor have a well indicative gcos of 81% but no partner.

[cyclic] 05/12/2018 14:10

Or maybe they will be dusters and the company will fold putting us all finally out of our long suffering misery.... And i will be able to stop my subscription to ADVFN and save myself a few hundred quid a year 😂

[pembury] 05/12/2018 13:45

yes wick and/ or colter have to deliver the goods

[joetricky] 05/12/2018 13:35

I personally believe that if we are successful the prospect will be sold on at a very agreeable profit. No need for dilution, no need for loans and giving us a strong cash balance to buy into larger prospects.

[gunsofmarscapone] 05/12/2018 01:44

Pembury if we are succesful of course Baron should fundraise via dilution. However it will be arithmetically optimal! The complete opposite to fundraising to survive if both UK wells fail.

[gunsofmarscapone] 05/12/2018 01:41

nimbid, are you conflating risked and unrisked barrels? In the event of a discovery you can discard all of the risked values.

Pembury, no, if investing today you have hopefully hit the inflection point imo in the mcap which equates closely to cash. The only negative in Boil apart from well risk is well cost premium and perhaps a limited range of licences.

[pembury] 04/12/2018 22:40

dilution to factor in if successful

[nlmbidc] 04/12/2018 19:25

How do you make that out?

The first target at wick is for 26 million barrels. 15% of that at an NPV of 14.5 dollars a barrel is around 50 million dollars. That may not show in the share price but it will certainly show on the balance sheet.

8%,of 23 million barrels at Colter will add a further 29 million dollars.

We will know whether this evolves by end of February.

Both Colter and Wick have second wells as possible follow up.

Perhaps by late Feb there will be news on SE Asia and Peru XX1.

[pembury] 04/12/2018 18:51

GoM lol seriously, it will need a very decent commercial find to even attempt to push those levels.

[petecb1] 04/12/2018 18:31

People said the same thing 5 years ago

[gunsofmarscapone] 04/12/2018 16:16

Joined the party, we ought to be trading at 6 times todays price on risked valuation for Wick alone. Can anyone else recollect a company with mcap/cash correlation to this degree with operations within line of sight?

Good luck fellow boilers, the queen of the oilers.

[gunsofmarscapone] 03/12/2018 22:51

Not the easiest task but it is possible that you guys are the best positioned amongst the ‘direct investment’ junior oilers. Monitoring closely but for the moment remaining with Reabold Resources due to spread of prospects/appraisals versus mcap/cash.

[gunsofmarscapone] 03/12/2018 17:22

Lets hope so, not the most risk free of wells though it has to be said.

[shafaq] 03/12/2018 16:18

Good post guns.Not long to wait I believe as 7th hopefully rig departs to wick.

[gunsofmarscapone] 03/12/2018 15:04

Good Afternoon, our futures are about to become unified via Wick and Colter (I am an RBD holder). I would like to wish you all the very best of luck. RBD looked a sensible choice for me, more from the point of ‘buying’ a certain professionalism via investment in a financial vehicle.

What GoM has started to do though is look in more detail at the participant companies and have to say that, at todays mcap and cash position Baron appear to be a junior E and P of the first rate. Obviously BOIL is paying a premium to the pro rata well costs of around 33%, Colter is a much less risky well so will probably join the party in the event of a Wick duster. Or before, undecided yet.

Nevertheless, two absolutely cracking prospects and if I may say so, little risk of imminent dilution. If Corallian make a discovery you will be able to fundraise at a non dilutive level.

This one was screened out due offshore risk/cost but it was a great decision for Boil to bug out of that!

All the very best err Boilers.

[pembury] 03/12/2018 13:52

Nothing. In the lead up to drilling not one director has acquired any shares. speaks volumes. These are non execs so even worse. Does ex director BC still get options and if he does why?.

[az209] 03/12/2018 13:43

What have they done to deserve these share options?

[joetricky] 03/12/2018 08:48

Guardian, good to hear from you. I hope that you are keeping well my friend.