Barclays Share Discussion Threads

[the juggler] 08/11/2010 08:11

rainfall - you like to start the day with a cheery smile eh?

You are all doom and gloom, glass half empty etc.

Cheer up for goodness sake otherwise I will have a mental picture of you walking the streets wearing a sandwich board proclaiming "The end is nigh"

[rainfall] 08/11/2010 08:07

housing market is going to go very bad over the next 12 months then get worse.

[jak1] 08/11/2010 08:06

From the Times

* Bob Diamond, the chief executive of Barclays Capital, is set to come under pressure to slash bonuses at the bank following a 20% drop in trading revenues; Barcap is forecast to report revenues for the three months to September of about £3 billion — down from £3.7 billion in the same period last year.

[bluedaytrader] 08/11/2010 07:54

watch twl fly today, rns out

[layer cake] 07/11/2010 19:08

depends on the politicians and since they are intent in destroying the british economy at all cost i would say not a f@cking chance.


HOPE THAT HELPS MATE

[go fourth and multiply] 07/11/2010 14:51

If barclays can sort out there problem with lehmans will this drive the share price up.....? what is the possibility of this happening....?

[smurfy2001] 07/11/2010 13:48

OK mucker, i'll sell at 400p plus.

[sir ramsey] 07/11/2010 10:07

Wont be holding this monday close

[smurfy2001] 07/11/2010 10:00

I think l will add a small trading lot after the results given the direction it went last time.

[wilba] 07/11/2010 09:55

Trading statement this week. Market suggests in line ect ect. Comments.

Regards Ken, Bl and Cap. Looking on with great interest. Well done for all your work and comments. I congratulate you all.

[robertfaulkner] 07/11/2010 07:57

Are we all agreed that Somnus system is designed to give a better than average direction of the FTSE, up or down for the day.

How important is the limits set by Somnus, R2 or S2, I think this is equally important(and probably crucial to the profits made).

I think as well that we are all tormented by thoughts that it must be possible, to fine tune Somnus to give a much better percentage of profit, but every time a tiny percentage improvement is found(and only on paper) it is a cost of massive time and effort, it always seems to come back to Ken's system being so simple to implement that wins.

The actual placing of bets with IG is the only real test (as they have slight manipulations to help keep punters profits down)

Ken has put his money where his mouth is, and in public, I am sure he is unique, and a 3 months running of real IG bets on Somnus will, I think, be the proof.

I just hope Ken has the patience to put up with us posters and the staminer to keep postings the results

My gut feeling is that the real failure, in the end, might be that it does give an overal profit after 3 months, but that it is not enough to make it worthwhile, I hope not for the sake of all Somnus participants

[capricious] 06/11/2010 19:04

As mentioned I've dropped scenario 1

I only fully started the forward testing from 18/10 for scenario 2 and 3.

With this small sample it's not statistically useful, but the figures are as follows:-

To reiterate
Open adjusted for IG close @ 08:01

2. HLC data from ADVFN. Target not corrected for previous losses
- £1495 (with the same target as below, this figure would've been £2400)

3. HLC data adjusted to correct for 08:00 figures. Target to match Ken's
- £1130

[thetatrader] 06/11/2010 17:18

Breakout of the Pitchfork again.
But it's left a Gap at 280.
RSI & Price divergence worked again.

[b1gman2] 06/11/2010 15:03

Capricious,
I too am forward testing using 3 sets of data:

1. The daily OHLC from ADVFN - I check the HLC with the official FTSE figures to ensure they match. They dont seem to publish and official open?
2. 1 Minute data from ADVFN
3. 1 Minute data from ADVFN but ignoring the 8.00 figures, which seem a bit suspect.

For 2 & 3 I am using the 8.01 close figure as my open for the day.

I only have the advfn 1 min data from 8/10/10 to date, but here are the results from the tests so far, based on daily target of £320:

1. £2,725.62 profit
2. £2,609.49 profit
3. £1,741.84 profit

The good news is they all show a profit. It is my personal belief that 2. is most realistic for me, for the way I am trading. e.g. my pivots are calculated using the official HLC of the day before and I take the 8.01 price as my open for the day.

Only time will really tell.

[capricious] 06/11/2010 14:02

Hi Ken,

Well luckily for us B1gman is a sucker for punishment, he doesn't count sheep, but 1 minute HLC prices! I think the success factor (including your comment about consistency rather than a slight difference in data), is the great idea of using IG's open @ 08:01. It adds the discretionary element I was looking for to compliment a mechanical system. It reflects the premarket activity and importantly waits for most of the ftse constituents to open.

[kenbachelor] 06/11/2010 13:35

Hi Capricious - I've never tried to back-test corrected data, but I'm doing so now going forward. To be honest I think it's too much trouble to download years of 1 minute data and I can't see any other way of doing it!

[capricious] 06/11/2010 13:05

Hi B1gman,

You mentioned that you've used the official open for backtesting? Like you and Ken I've been trying to keep multiple sets of data, which although a pain in the a*se, is useful. Our backtests prove that there is a level of consistency or at least a good enough risk:reward ratio for a mechanical system to work.

Now back to the reason I first started writing this post... I no longer concentrate on backtest as such, instead forward testing the different data. I've found that using the official open means many days where you couldn't actually place a trade, or if you did, you'd be on the wrong side of the price action and see a loss instead of a backtested win. Is this what you've found, or am I missing something?

[go fourth and multiply] 05/11/2010 17:15

Is The NCUA deal good for Barclays???

[capricious] 05/11/2010 13:02

Hi Ken,

Haha, ok see it now thanks - I've been staring at that on and off all morning, a where's Waldo competition!

[robertfaulkner] 05/11/2010 12:58

Copied from HSBC thread


MIATA - 5 Nov'10 - 12:42 - 3240 of 3240


Total non-farm payrolls rose by 151,000 in October, higher than the 70,000 gain expected.

The unemployment rate held steady at 9.6% for the third straight month.
Economists forecast the unemployment rate to rise to 9.7%.

The payrolls count in August and September was revised higher by a cumulative 110,000. Payrolls fell a revised 1,000 in August and by 41,000 in September. There were strong upward revisions to job creation in the past two months.

[kenbachelor] 05/11/2010 12:30

Capricious - I thought it was you who asked me for them. Look immediately under the charts.

[capricious] 05/11/2010 10:59

Hi Ken,

I can't find the HLC figures you are using for your pivots, are they in the header somewhere?

Thanks.

[sir ramsey] 05/11/2010 10:57

No sir, please remain seated for the 12:30 US non farm, grab a curly-whirley, jamboree bag and enjoy the ride sir

[robertfaulkner] 05/11/2010 10:48

Sir R, Are you saying there's an engine failure!!!!!!!!!!

Rolls Royce never has that trouble