Barclays Share Discussion Threads

[exel] 25/2/2018 21:18

Great content, thanks bernie

[bernie37] 25/2/2018 19:11

Perhaps mindful that Barclays (BARC) has a reputation as a 'jam tomorrow' stock, chief executive Jes Staley sought to give investors a little of what they craved today.

His guidance that the dividend for 2018 will be restored to where it was two years ago helped offset any disappointment over weaker-than-expected underlying profits in annual results, particularly in light of the 14% slide in shares over the past year.

As a result, the blue-chip stock jumped 5% to test levels last seen in May. Having told investors last summer that it wouldn't be long before shareholders could finally plug into "the full earnings power" of Barclays, Staley really needed that promise of a chunky dividend hike.

The total pay-out had been cut to 3p from 6.5p in 2016 in order to pay for restructuring as Barclays retrenched back to core markets in the UK and United States, ran down non-core assets and reduced its majority shareholding in Africa.

This work to reshape the business is starting to have a positive impact on its CET1 capital ratio, which now stands at 13.3% and is comfortably within its target range.



While Barclays still has a few legacy conduct issues to address, Staley said it was the bank's intention to return a greater proportion of this excess capital to shareholders, including through share buy-backs.

Yesterday, Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) said it would release £1 billion through a planned buy-back this year, as part of capital returns worth £3.2 billion.

Why Lloyds Bank is a 'core portfolio essential'

UBS said the promised 2018 dividend from Barclays amounted to a running yield of 3.5%, which it expects will grow slowly as any excess capital is returned through buy-backs.

Analyst Jason Napier, who had a price target of 225p prior to today's results, said the current market valuation suggests there's little in the price for management achieving their 9% and 10% targets for return on tangible equity (ROTE) in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

He added: "Once clarity is had on one-off items in head office and the outlook for these, we think the market will focus on Barclays attractive valuation and improving return profile."

[jordaggy] 25/2/2018 02:40

Barclays can deliver upside, says Shore Capital
Barclays' (BARC) current share price is not factoring in the ability of management to improve returns and deliver upside, says Shore Capital.

Analyst Gary Greenwood retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and a ‘fair value’ price of 240p after full-year 2017 results showed profits ‘a little weaker than consensus but capital ratio and 2018 dividend guidance better than expected’. The shares rose 4.4% to 211p yesterday.

Barclays said it would increase the dividend to 6.5p this year, restoring it to a level last seen in 2015 and better than the 5.2p investors had been expecting.

‘We believe that the current share price is giving management no credit for its ability to improve returns, with delivery providing scope for significant upside potential,’ said Greenwood.

[smurfy2001] 24/2/2018 18:45

portside1, hope the share price spikes on Monday thanks to your upgrade :0)

[bernie37] 24/2/2018 15:15

That'll do for me, portside1.

[portside1] 24/2/2018 11:56

I am putting a up grade on barcs and a target of 335p by year end

[manics] 24/2/2018 08:15

..ya 'cos Woodford's been having such a great time of it recently hasn't he?

AA
Capita

[jordaggy] 24/2/2018 01:23

So Moody's downgrades Barc and Woodford said it's the most under valued bank out there! I'm in the Woodford camp.

[smurfy2001] 23/2/2018 17:02

So no breakout? :(

[bernie37] 23/2/2018 16:05

That would be nice, portside, 300p like you I've got a lot invested in this bank.

[clond] 23/2/2018 15:48

Porty stop it - you'll only upset yourself all over again.

[portside1] 23/2/2018 15:47

break out is coming over 300p is coming

[jordaggy] 23/2/2018 15:29

Thanks Bernie. FI.

[exel] 23/2/2018 13:00

Thanks again, bernie37, These extracts are painting a useful and nearly complete picture, the missing part being the size of pending payouts BARC will face for these various unresolved past conduct issues. Those apart, things are clearly looking a tad better. Am guessing you and others will have seen this, below, but just in case: An American take on yesterday's results, and where we sit now.

[smurfy2001] 23/2/2018 12:55

Really needs to breakout from here.

Here's the weekly chart.



Here's the daily chart.



IMHO

[bernie37] 23/2/2018 12:49

james e Staley
Group Chief Executive

The spirit, energy and professionalism that my colleagues from across Barclays have brought to this endeavour gives me great con dence in our future, both as Group CEO and as a shareholder. While there is still work to be done, the story of Barclays in 2017 has been one of considerable strategic progress.
On the 1st of June, we completed the sell down of our shareholding in Barclays Africa. At a stroke, this single act permitted accounting deconsolidation and regulatory proportional consolidation, reduced both cost and complexity, and improved our capital strength.
Our Group pro t before tax is up by 10%, year on year.
In July, we closed Barclays’ Non-Core unit, six months ahead of plan. In doing so, we eliminated some £95bn of risk weighted assets, sold more than 20 businesses, exited operations in a dozen countries, and reduced costs by over £2bn - all in just three years.
In September, we stood up the Group Service Company, where around 42,000 of our 80,000 employees now work. Operational and technological strength is a key competitive advantage for any global bank today. The cost ef ciencies and improvements in effectiveness realised from this strategic decision are already being felt right across the Group – and that is making a real and positive difference to our customers and clients’ lives, every day.
By December, we had largely completed the work to build our UK ring-fenced bank, which we expect will be fully up and running by the time we meet at the Annual General Meeting (AGM).
The Barclays of today is almost unrecognisable, compared with just a few years ago. The momentum we have built in successfully delivering on our plans so far, leaves me with a sense of con dence about our next task: delivering acceptable Group returns for you, our shareholders.
Our nancial performance in 2017 shows that we are on our way to doing this. Our Group pro t before tax is up by 10 , year on year, largely driven by a reduction in Non-Core losses. Group return on tangible equity, excluding litigation and conduct charges, the losses related to the sell down of BAGL and a one-off adverse impact from US tax reform, stood at 5.6% in 2017.
Our two businesses, Barclays UK and Barclays International, performed fairly well in the year despite challenging market conditions, and the Group is bene tting from the balance that the diversity of product, currency, geography, and business mix, gives us. In Barclays UK pro tability held up, with good progress in mortgages, deposit growth, and mobile banking. Pro ts were down in Barclays International versus 2016, due to a poor performance in the Markets business of our Corporate and Investment Bank in dif cult trading conditions for the industry. We have strong plans in place to address that underperformance in 2018. Our Consumer, Cards and Payments business continues to produce excellent levels of income, while managing risk effectively.
Perhaps most importantly of all, we enter 2018 in a strong capital position. By the end of 2017, we were at a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 13.3%, within our end-state target range.
This shows that Barclays can sustainably generate pro ts at a healthy rate, and our capacity to do so should increase over time as we grow our businesses.
That is why in 2017 we set ourselves ambitious but attainable targets for Group returns of greater than 9% in 2019, and of greater than 10% in 2020, excluding litigation and conduct, and based on a CET1 ratio of around13%.
A small number of signi cant legacy conduct issues remain, and we will need to resolve them in due course.
Nevertheless, it is our intention to prioritise the return of capital to shareholders, beginning this year. We plan to pay a dividend for 2018 of six and a half pence, which is more than double the amount paid in 2016 and 2017, and restores it to the level paid in 2015.
This is an important rst step, but is still a fairly modest proportion of our anticipated earnings for Barclays. It is our rm intent, over time, to return a greater proportion of our earnings to shareholders, both through the annual dividend and in other ways. For example, it has been some 20 years since Barclays last used share buybacks as a means of returning value to investors, but we expect these to be an important part of the capital return mix going forward.
In 2017 over half of our colleagues took part in volunteering, fundraising or giving programmes.
It is the talent, ingenuity and dedication of our people, and the progress we have made in the past year, which gives me great con dence for our future. I look forward to discussing this future with you when we meet at our AGM in May.
a es tale
Group Chief Executive
I have worked in banking for some 38 years, and I can say with conviction that the way Barclays does business, seeking to earn the trust of every customer, client and community in which we serve, is truly extraordinary.
In 2017 we celebrated the 20th anniversary of the Barclays Citizenship Awards - a year which saw over half of our colleagues take part in volunteering, fundraising or giving programmes. Among many examples of great contributions to the communities in which we operate, I was particularly proud of the work we have done to increase digital safety and to prevent the growing threat of fraud. Our education and awareness campaign has seen over 4.8 million people take action to protect themselves as a result.
This kind of effort is not just the right way to act, it also makes commercial sense. When the societies where we operate succeed, Barclays succeeds. That is why, for over three centuries, this great institution continues to rise up to the challenges that our communities face, and to play our part.
This is particularly true as our home country, the United Kingdom, faces an uncertain future as negotiations to leave the European Union unfold. Whatever may come, Barclays is here to stay, and here to help the 24 million customers and almost one million UK businesses, who put their trust in us, every day.

[exel] 23/2/2018 11:59

Credit not praise, maybe, notably for the Balance Sheet reduction, but I take your point, clond.

[clond] 23/2/2018 08:55

35 billion in bad years shows the potential - not sure the directors should be praised ... Maybe the later captains of the ship.

[exel] 23/2/2018 08:23

Carefully re-read the chairman's letter last night. Thanks again bernie. Quite chilling, actually. The headwinds remain 'many'. The answers to those 'wait and see'. None were sized in any way. That's the chilling bit! When I recall the Guinness case and it's early doors 'financial assistance' crime. Not a word on Barclays' stance (perhaps no shock there?) But the huge fear remains from USA. The Americans never forgave that Lehman buy. This stock really is the glass half-full conundrum. When you're invested, it is indeed 'half-full' and you climb the wall of fear with management. When you're out, it quickly becomes a glass half-empty. You focus on what could go wrong. £35 billion of hits over 10 years and still standing! Wow! Management here maybe deserves a tad more credit than this board has given them?

[clond] 22/2/2018 20:53

Recovered well when it looked to be losing today's gains.

[exel] 22/2/2018 20:38

Do agree that Tiger Global remains a positive signal. Also, thanks so much bernie37 for posting the chairman's letter. This stock is firmly on my radar despite exiting today - largely to cleanse the 'confirmation bias' that has a habit of setting in, with long stay holdings.

[ny boy] 22/2/2018 19:37

Well Tiger Global who bought a 2.5% stake at 180p, must be reasonably happy +17% so far, it was a buy as soon as they bought in.

Gap to 240p, goes ex div next Thursday 01 March, so should be active now on the buying side