Baker Steel Resources Share Discussion Threads

[kimboy2] 13/9/2012 08:45

The only comment I have found about Ivans valuation is;



At the moment, based on grey market trading, the company is worth about $850-million. Pre-IPO stock of Ivanplats has been trading recently at $2 a share, said one person who tracks the grey market. With about 423 million shares outstanding, according to the filing, that puts the value of the company at almost $850-million

I had thought the grey market had stopped some time ago due to the lock ins for existing shareholders.

We will no doubt find out what the valuation will be but I think it will be well north of $850m, if not the $5bn+ originally touted.

[kimboy2] 12/9/2012 21:39

Sorry, yes I thought it would be somewhere. I was doing Byzantine calulations to try and get it.

There are 66.14m BSRT shares and the NAV at last reading was 106.1p which gives an asset value of £70.17.

Ivanplats is said to be 30.7% which makes a holding of £21.7m

It says they have 9,787,495 shares/warrants/nominal. I believe they have over 1 million warrants and don't know the terms or valuation.

That would suggest a BSRT valuation of $3.50 an Ivanplats share.

There are about 450m Ivanplats shares in issue presently which would imply a valuation of $1,576m.

Don't trust my calulations though.

[energiser01] 12/9/2012 18:39

From June statement

Holding 9,787,495 in Ivanplats Limited @ equiv $21,837,338 representing 28.73% of trust NAV.

dyor etc..

[kimboy2] 12/9/2012 16:27

FWIW I reckon that BSRT have about 15m shares in Ivanplats which are being carried at about $2.22. That values Ivanplats at about $1bn.

Given that in June 2011 they sold an 8% share of Platreef alone for $280m we should be hoping for something well north of $1bn.

I bought fair load today. Looks exceptioanl risk/reward to me.

[kimboy2] 12/9/2012 13:42

Many thanks

[strollingmolby] 12/9/2012 12:23

I've posted the 305-page Prelim Prospectus here:

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0ByVGMGI29ULcT0pwaEtza0hFNkU

[kimboy2] 12/9/2012 11:50

Anybody go hold of the prospectus yet ?

[contrarian2investor] 12/9/2012 10:15

Just got the alert and joined in and leveraged my holdings with some BSRW as well.

[strollingmolby] 12/9/2012 09:43

Baker Steel Resources Trust Limited (the "Company") announces that its largest investment Ivanplats Limited ("Ivanplats") yesterday filed its preliminary prospectus in Canada in anticipation of an Initial Public Offering ("IPO") and listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

The investment in Ivanplats represented 30.7% of the Company's unaudited net asset value as at 31 August 2012.

[strollingmolby] 30/8/2012 11:29

From today's results:

Review

At the end of June 2012, Baker Steel Resources Trust Limited was fully invested. Small top-up investments in Polar Silver Resources Limited, Bilboes Holdings (Private) Limited and Copperbelt Minerals Limited have been made during the period totalling less than 0.5% of net assets.There have been no other new investments or realisations during the period. During the half, the NAV per share fell 12.5% to 114.9 pence largely due to decreases in the carrying values of Ferrous Resources Limited ("Ferrous") and Copperbelt Minerals Limited as well as falls in the market values of the listed investments in the portfolio.

The largest contributor to the fall in NAV per share (6.5 percentage points) during the period was from a decision by the Company to reduce the carrying value of its interest in Ferrous, following the reported sale of part of its stake in Ferrous by Harbinger Capital Partners LLC, which had held approximately 26% of the shares of Ferrous. In February 2012, Ferrous announced the appointment of a new Chief Executive, Jayme Niccolato Correa, who was previously with major iron ore producers Vale and CSN. In June 2012, Ferrous announced that following a comprehensive review of its strategic options and operations by Mr Correa, Ferrous had decided upon a new strategy for the development of its projects and since that time, the Investment Manager has met with Mr Correa in order to understand better the new strategy. The revised plan is for step-by-step organic growth to production of an initial 5 million tonnes of iron ore per annum from 2013 which will reduce funding requirements in the short term as opposed to the previous target of 24 million tonnes per annum. However, following the end of the period the carrying value was further reduced by 16.7% in line with significant "grey market" trading.

Despite positive operating results from several companies in the listed part of the portfolio they suffered significant share price falls during the period alongside the general malaise in mining equity markets. China Polymetallic Mining Limited (down 12.6%) has reported it is well on track to ramp up its Shizishan Silver Lead Zinc Mine; South American Ferro Metals Limited ("SAFM") (down 18.8%) announced that it has completed construction of a concentrator at its Ponto Verde iron ore mine in Brazil which will increase saleable product from Ponto Verde by around 50% at minimal extra operating cost and therefore will have a materially positive impact on SAFM's cashflow; Forbes and Manhattan Coal Corp (down 44.1%) announced revenues increased by 124% last year. The important factor to note with all three of these companies is that they are in production and generating strong cashflows which means they do not need to access the current weak markets to fund their continued development.

The largest company in the portfolio, Ivanplats Limited ("Ivanplats"), has also made good progress at its two major projects, producing updated NI 43-101 reports for both its Kamoa copper project in the Democratic Republic of Congo and its Platreef platinum nickel project in South Africa. Gobi Coal & Energy Limited ("Gobi") is laying the groundwork to commence production at its Shinejinst coking coal project in Mongolia, however recent weakness in global coking coal prices has translated into a significant reduction in the price of coal delivered to the Chinese border. This combined with current equity market conditions indicates a reduced likelihood of Gobi achieving its planned IPO in the near future and therefore funding for the Phase 2 expansion of its Shinejinst Mine in Mongolia. Subsequent to the end of the period, the Company has reduced its carrying value of Gobi by approximately 23%.


Outlook

Prices for metals have remained relatively robust and well above the long term prices the Company uses in modelling the underlying projects in its investment portfolio. Equity markets for mining shares have been weak in the first half of the year with the HSBC Global Mining Index down 9.8% with investors being in "risk off" mode as the market waits for a resolution to the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. This increased "disconnect" between the prices of mining equities and commodities is unlikely to be sustained in the longer term and if commodity prices remain strong the recovery of prices of mining equities could well be marked. It should be noted that despite slowing economic growth in China, the strong growth over the past 10 years has provided a much larger base for the demand of metals and therefore the need for new mining projects.
One of the key means for the Company to monetise investments is through IPOs. Although certain of the Company's investments are sufficiently advanced in their development to be able seek a listing, most notably Ivanplats, this will only occur once the general market for IPOs is more receptive.

[energiser01] 17/8/2012 11:11

Will they provide an update when production starts or is it likley to be delayed, any views ?

Gobi Coal & Energy Limited ("Gobi")19% of NAV

Gobi is an emerging coking coal producer based in Mongolia. Gobi Coal owns 100% of three open cut coal development projects in southwestern Mongolia. The Company's projects contain approximately 322 million tonnes of JORC resources and include more than 500,000 hectares of tenements.

Gobi's first project, Shinejinst, contains approximately 95 million tonnes of JORC reserves and 229 million tonnes of JORC resources and is expected to begin production in Q2 2012. At full production, Shinejinst is expected to produce approximately 5 million tonnes per annum of high quality, semi-soft coking coal product.

www.gobicoal.com

dyor etc..

[strollingmolby] 02/8/2012 08:12

31 July 2012 NAV Statement

Net Asset Values

Baker Steel Resources Trust Limited (the "Company") announces its unaudited net asset value and diluted net asset value per share as at 31 July 2012:

Net asset value per Ordinary Share: 107.8 pence

Diluted net asset value per Ordinary Share: 106.5 pence

During the month, the undiluted NAV per share fell by 6.2%, predominantly due to a reduction in the carrying values of Gobi Coal & Energy Limited and Ferrous Resources Limited.

------

Gobi unlikely to IPO in near future and Ferrous write down to recent grey market trade values.

[jaws6] 07/6/2012 15:05

94.25 to 95.5

[rcturner2] 03/5/2012 07:10

Could see a fall today after the NAV write down.

[strollingmolby] 27/4/2012 14:34

Annual Report and Audited Financial Statements

For the year to 31 December 2011


HIGHLIGHTS

· Audited 31 December 2011 NAV per share increased 27.0% over the year to 131.3p.

· Fully invested by June 2011.

· First realisation of a core investment during the year with First Coal Corporation being sold to Xstrata Coal Canada Limited generating an after tax return of 129%.

CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT

For the year ended 31 December 2011


I am pleased to present the Company's second annual report. 2011 was the first full year of operation for the Company following its admission to listing on 28 April 2010. Performance for the year was good with the undiluted NAV per share increasing 27.0% compared to a broader market represented by the HSBC Global Mining Index which fell by 28.4%.

The first part of the year continued the theme of 2010 with the focus on making suitable investments with sufficient potential at the right price. The weak markets for IPOs assisted this process because, without that outlet for raising capital to continue development, private companies were compelled to raise funds in the private market. As a result the Company was fully invested by the end of June 2011, a little over a year after listing.

In line with the Company's investment objective, the strategy has been to create a highly focused portfolio of strong conviction investments. At the year end, the Company was invested in 17 companies of which the top 10 holdings comprised 94.9% of Net Asset Value. The portfolio covers the commodities of iron ore, coal, copper, platinum group metals, nickel, silver and gold in such diverse locations as Mongolia, Brazil, Democratic Republic of Congo, South Africa, China, Canada, Russia, Zimbabwe and the Philippines.

The weakness in public markets, particularly in the second half of the year, meant that a number of our investee companies that had been planning to list were unable to do so. However the strengths of their projects were underlined by their ability to attract funding largely at substantial premiums to BSRT's acquisition levels. Ivanplats raised US$280 million for an 8% interest in its Platreef Project in South Africa from Japanese trading company ITOCHU indicating an implied value for that project of US$3.5 billion and Gobi Coal raised US$91 million at a 225% premium to the Company's carrying value at the beginning of the year.

During the year, the Company made its first significant realisation of an investment following the acquisition of First Coal by Xstrata Coal Canada Limited in August 2011, generating an after tax return of 129% on the Company's C$5.2 million investment. This disposal demonstrates the Company's strategy of investing in projects of sufficient scale to attract major industry buyers as an alternative to monetisation via the IPO market. During December 2011, one of the Company's investments, China Polymetallic Mining Limited, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange despite very difficult market conditions, achieving an unrealised return of 76% based on the closing listed price on 30 December 2011.

The weakness in IPO markets in 2011, which led to the deferral of a number of IPOs, means that 2012 could prove to be an eventful year for the Company should the IPO market open up again. I am therefore looking forward to the rest of the year with much anticipation and would like to thank all our shareholders for their continuing support for the Company.

[peterbill] 20/4/2012 08:57

Plimer steps in as Friedland bows out

Renowned mining entrepreneur Robert Friedland has been replaced on the Ivanhoe Australia board by climate change sceptic, academic and author Ian Plimer.

Ivanhoe Australia's parent company Ivanhoe Mines on Wednesday announced the resignation of its founder Mr Friedland from the boards of both companies.

Professor Plimer will serve as interim chairman while chief executive Peter Reeve will remain in his role, Ivanhoe Australia said in statement on Thursday.

The University of Adelaide academic joined the Ivanhoe Australia board in 2007 and was appointed director of Gina Rinehart's Roy Hill Holdings, Hope Downs Iron Ore Pty Ltd and Queensland Coal Investments in January.

Mr Friedland's resignation was part of an agreement between Ivanhoe Mines and its 51 per cent shareholder Rio Tinto, whereby the larger miner would provide billions of dollars in financing for the Canadian company's huge Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold project in Mongolia.

The financing is expected to cover all requirements for the development for the next four to five years, Ivanhoe Mines said in a separate statement.

Rio Tinto manages the colossal project - an underground development expected to be as large as Manhattan - but does not hold a direct stake in it.

The project is 66 per cent held by Ivanhoe Mines, while the Mongolian government has the remainder.

more at

======================



Ivanhoe CEO resigns to let Rio reign

Massive mine project in Mongolia proves to be his undoing

Read more:

[kenmitch] 18/4/2012 11:59

Thanks Kimboy.

Holding mostly shares seems sensible and I think I'll do the same in time, but with nearly another year to run I can hold the warrants for now, as if the share price rises the warrants should do better still, and I can use the warrant profit to reduce the cost of the share buy. That's the theory anyway.

[kimboy2] 17/4/2012 18:23

Hi Kenmitch et al
I hold mostly shares rather than warrants here for the reason it could be delayed. Of course it doesn't necessarily need an Ivanplats IPO for the warrants to pay off, though that will be the big one.

My views are summarized by minesite;



In spite of the excitement given by the private company Ivanplats, at Indaba, as yet no transaction has occurred, hence Baker Steel's stake, which represents 25.5% of undiluted NAV, remains at its previous valuation. At 113 pence per share they trade at a 9.2% discount to end March diluted NAV. This remains attractive, for at some stage Ivanplats will either be listed, or there will be a transaction at a materially higher level than that currently carried by Baker Steel Resources Trust.

Good things come to those who wait.

[peterbill] 17/4/2012 17:58

From the RNS quarterly factsheet ...

In particular, Ivanplats
is due to complete an Preliminary Economic
Assessment on its Kamoa copper project in the
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and an updated
resource report on its Platreef platinum
group metal project in South Africa following
its major drilling programme in 2011. These reports
should enable Ivanplats to consider a listing
this year.

[kenmitch] 17/4/2012 16:48

Kimboy.

The update today isn't encouraging re. Ivnaplatz listing soon. Hints that it might be later this year. It could be tight for those of us holding the warrants.

[kimboy2] 05/4/2012 23:13

Looks as though we will know about Ivanplats next month.

[kimboy2] 07/3/2012 16:59

Friedland declined to comment on the prospects of an initial public offering for Ivanplats. Sources familiar with the matter have said Ivanplats has appointed advisors and is considering a $1 billion listing as early as later this year, though others have questioned the timing unless markets improve significantly

Looks as though it is going to be obscenely profitable.

[kimboy2] 06/3/2012 14:34

I have the shares rather than the warrants as I was concerned about likely delays. However if the wts come down I may have a dart at them.

I think the BSRT NAV of Ivanplats is based on a $1.75bn valuation. There is talk of a valuation of over $5bn and the button being pushed in Q2/12.

If market turmoil can be avoided I think it sounds as though it will go ahead. I presume they have cash to raise, as well as have investors who would like a liquid market.

Good risk/reward IMV