Bahamas Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[laallee] 30/8/2020 08:26

Stay frosty.

[pro_s2009] 29/8/2020 23:48

Its all very well talking of drilling, but the question remains over funding.

They do not have the money. That has been the case for many years and remains the same.

Funding still is not confirmed, funding is still needed - and a very large dilution could still be coming.

Something has to give - either they raise the money - or they dont drill.

Historically its always been, they dont drill in the end.

[linton78] 29/8/2020 22:03

Laallee - no comment! :-)

Onwards and upwards.

[tomford8] 29/8/2020 21:59

Some interesting posts over on Lse board today for your info


Headline - Oil Explorer Hails Govt In Granting Licence 'Certainty

August 2020

Mr Potter said, "One of the pieces of that announcement was declaring to the market that the Bahamas Government had written to us with the formal notification that, on an interim basis, the government had granted us a three-and-a-half-month extension to force majeure that takes the licence through to mid-April 2021."

"However, the interim extension to mid-April 2021, as now confirmed, is sufficient to provide certainty for the purposes of the drilling of Perseverance One, which is scheduled to commence in the window of 15 December 2020, to 1 February 2021."

With a confirmed contract for the oil rig in place with Stena Drilling, Mr Potter said BPC believed drilling in waters south-west of Andros, close to the maritime border with Cuba, would begin in the early part of the December 15-February 1 timeframe.

This, he suggested, would place completion of BPC's first exploratory well towards end-January or mid-February 2021, thus ensuring "the licence obligation will be fulfilled well in time for April" and the revised deadline. Based on a 45-60 day completion cycle, he added that Perseverance One would be finished by early April at latest assuming a February 1 start, still inside its obligations.

Describing The Bahamas' well as being "at the heart" of BPC's strategy, Mr Potter said: "It's a core asset of the company, and it remains our ambition to bring that to fruition. It [the licence extension] does give us that kind of assurance that we will get our obligations done well within the timeframe granted to us by our licence.

#"We are absolutely single-minded in our desire to deliver the well in The Bahamas and evaluate the significant potential resource that sits there in the southern ocean adjacent to the Cuban border. People should be assured we're trying to make it happen and make it happen as soon as possible rather than leave it to the last moment by having the rig contract making the rig available early."
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Starchild 29th Aug 2020

Headline - Duster or winner timeline


After the drillship arrives onsite, BPC has indicated 30-45 days for the spud to complete. Prior to the ship leaving for home, we will know via RNS if it is a total duster or if the oil’s API is below 11 and therefore too heavy (similar to bitumen sludge) because the hole will need to be sealed for environmental and practical reasons.

During the 45 days……Refer to page 11 of the August presentation and you will note in the photo there are multiple reservoirs (Stacked plays) from Upper Jurassic megabank and reef systems throughout the Lower Cretaceous…..where hydrocarbons could be trapped. I believe there are 10 reservoirs at the spot where the drill will take place. I’m sure we will get news as the drill progresses. hxxps://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/08/19180949/BPC-Management-Presentation-August-2020.pdf The share price will react as news is issued. Analysts have predicted $1 in market cap per barrel. Winner.

If the drill is a success, a $5m contingency budget exists for enhanced evaluation logging/sampling. This could be why the spud will take 30-45 days, however, it could on top of this figure. It is likely at this point the share price will have already soared for two simple reasons: firstly, commercial quantities of oil have been found at the Persev-1 location and secondly there is a high possibility more oil (+/-1bboe!) is next door when eventually Persev-2 is drilled. Winner.

At that point, which for simplicity let’s estimate as being 60 days after the ship’s arrival, it will not be the end of the story, but the beginning of a new chapter: off-site analysis probably in Texas will review the samples and data. How long this will take I will leave to BB members who have more experience in the engineering/tech aspects of discovery. I believe Findme posted a few helpful comments last week. Nevertheless, after the analysis is complete, BPC’s market cap will reflect the value of the oil net of extraction costs, JV %, and royalties to the Bahamas Gov. It will be based on the PoO at the time, USD GBP exchange rate and projected PoO price on extraction in 2-3 years. And let’s not forget, news announcements for Persev-2 spud and to a lesser degree CERP assets at the time. Which is why it is not unrealistic to estimate 77p-100p by the end of 2021. Winner. However, all the ducks need to line up in a row for this to happen. If there is no oil (or oil is too heavy) the ducks will have drowned. It is because of this high risk/high reward possibility, the whole world has not lined up to buy BPC........YET.

I hope this answers your duster or winner question. IMHO. DYOR

Starchild

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Headline - RE: Duster or winner timeline

Just to add some operational context to Starchild's excellent post;

I have a lot of experience of drilling these types of wells with these types of rigs. I have no knowledge of the actual well design but looking at the stratigraphic column and the timing of 30-45 days (the difference I suspect relates to whether the well is dry or a success).

A typical operational outline would be;

1) Load up with all materials and sail to location, I assume the clock starts when the rig is on location.
2) Position the rig and drill the riserless top hole section. This will involve either jetting in typically +/- 80m of 36" conductor or drilling 36" x 42" hole and then running and cementing the conductor. Then drill 26" hole to typically +/- 800m below the seabed and run and cement either 22" or 20" casing. Depending on whether the conductor is jetted or cemented all this should take +/- 7 days.
3) Run and test BOPs on the wellhead. As the rig is set up for managed pressure drilling (MPD) this involves running and rigging up additional equipment so will probably take +/- 5 days
4) Drill 17.1/2" hole to above the top reservoir and run and cement 13.5/8" casing. They may run some wireline logs before the casing. Approx timing for this could be +/- 5 days.
5) Drill 12.1/4" through the reservoir to well TD. Typically an exploration well would be a vertical hole and based on the quoted target depth of 4,822 metres and the photo on page 11 that is the case here. It may take 7 or 8 days to drill this section depending on ROP and if they need to use the MPD system. As soon as they start drilling through the reservoir they will see the real-time logging while drilling (LWD) data and have a very good idea if they are in the success case scenario or not....everyone on the rig will know!
6) Perform wireline logging. In the failure case, this may only take 1 or 2 days. In the success case, this could take up to 10 days. From what I can see there is no plan to do a drill stem test (DST) to determine reservoir properties and flow rates etc however there are wireline logging tools now available where you can get a lot of this data anyway. It also makes more sense to do a DST on an appraisal well rather than incur significant additional costs on an exploration well to be ready to perform a DST and then not do it. They will know for sure at this stage if it is a success or not and could make an announcement shortly after. On recent projects, I have been on the companies have made announcements within a couple of weeks of logging.
7) Plug and abandon the well and recover BOPs. The well will be abandoned whether it is a success or not and take +/- 6 days

BPC has stated the well could be deepened to 5600m which would probably mean running 9.5/8" casing or liner then drilling 8.1/2" hole. I suspect this is what the $5m contingency is for.

All this is based on my experience on similar projects - I have no info on what the actual well plan is.

CoMan

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Headline - RE: Duster or winner timeline

CoMan -: very informative posts today with your expertise in the oil industry. Do you have any thoughts on timelines between the ship leaving for home and the analysis of the samples/quality/proof of oil reserves etc?

StarChild

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Headline - RE: Duster or winner timeline

StarChild

while performing the wireline logging operation they will most likely take sidewall cores for analysis. They will also run tools that can determine all the petrophysical data required to determine reservoir properties and they will take fluid samples for analysis. While taking pressure points in the lead up to taking the fluid samples they can determine 'mobility' ie the ability for the fluids to flow and the while taking the samples they will get a pretty accurate real-time analysis of the fluid quality in terms of viscosity etc. The core analysis will not be required to determine if the well is a success or not, they will use the information to help determine future plans for development etc in the success case. They should also have enough information from the logging data without having to wait for the fluid samples to be analysed before determining if the well is a success to not. In reality, they should have a very good understanding if the well is a success or not before the rig completes the plug and abandon phase - you actually need a good understanding of the reservoir to determine exactly how you are going to plug and abandon the well.

So they could make an announcement around the time the rig completes operations as they should have enough information by then.

Chriskerr,
I have heard the Stena drillships are all excellent rigs, I guess you were involved with the Icemx just before it supposedly going to east coast Canada which I think was cancelled? I have been involved with the Maersk V rigs in recent years - also excellent rigs and also with 2 BOPs which is a great help. My understanding is they plan on using the MPD system on this well - reason being a risk of total losses in the carbonate formation and the MPD system allows them to use pressured mud cap drilling to drill through the section.

CoMan

[laallee] 29/8/2020 17:44

Linton,
We must have been on the same Selection.....

[linton78] 29/8/2020 14:49

Bpc are legally water tight on this matter as long as they drill before the deadline.

The current government have taken legal advice which confirmed Bpc were locked into drilling by the previous government.

This is just hot air... the government need the potential oil revenue.

[ccr1958] 29/8/2020 11:36

That’s encouraging pro.

[arrynillson] 29/8/2020 07:52

Better than any of your posts on this board 12bn!

[linton78] 28/8/2020 23:11

Simple Simon has been glue sniffing again in cardboard city.

Remember we know where you live and will leave only your eye lids on the doorstep.

[specialist is the living god] 28/8/2020 21:39

The idiot bin 🗑 boy has no clue what accounts are. He just reads articles (with difficulty) and then copy pastes only. He is my favourite IDIOT IN THE DARK. 👏👏👏👏8465;🗑Ԅ65;

[aberloon2] 28/8/2020 21:37

In May this year BPC was the first share i ever bought, i managed to buy at 1.96 and sold on news of the merger. I was tempted to go back in today but have decided to wait till i see the Stena drillship actually set sail. Just a trust thing really.

[arrynillson] 28/8/2020 21:01

12bn - the newly issued shares didn't seem to inhibit the share price gaining far more than today's fall the other day - with no claimed financial interest in this share you should try not to excite yourself too much over what most people regard as natural ebb and flow of the market.

You obviously need a hobby 12bn - I'd like to suggest train spotting but for someone known to get wood over a 1% fall in the share price historically I'm not sure your cardiac system could cope with the slightest timetable compliance issue!

[12bn] 28/8/2020 15:54

Oh dear another nasty drop I see,is it because there are too many newly issued shares?

[arrynillson] 28/8/2020 14:25

12bn - if I'm wiped out on this share I'll be disappointed but it will be a known gamble which even you realise has huge upside. The consequences for you who claims no financial interest here are nil - bet you can't wait for lockdown conditions relaxation so you can resume attendance at your monthly meetings of fellow eunuchs 12bn!

[arrynillson] 28/8/2020 13:16

BigSi2 - good suggestion for 12bn and Dross but 12bn needs specialist help as anyone can readily appreciate - setting up his own series of threads just to troll CERP sometimes multiple times daily whilst always claiming no financial interest in outcomes!

Dross is just a disappointed Goebells disciple - he's licked his wounds for many months and clearly hoped people had forgotten his antics - isn't it lucky I'm able to educate readers on their history!

[bigsi2] 28/8/2020 10:40

Have you both considered anger management courses?Such stress is terribly bad for ones well being don't you know