Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Bahamas Petrol LSE:BPC London Ordinary Share IM00B3NTV894 ORD 0.002P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.05p -4.08% 1.175p 1.15p 1.20p 1.25p 1.15p 1.225p 8,338,829 15:37:45
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 0.0 -3.1 -0.3 - 15.75

Bahamas Share Discussion Threads

Showing 32151 to 32171 of 32175 messages
Chat Pages: 1287  1286  1285  1284  1283  1282  1281  1280  1279  1278  1277  1276  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
19/2/2018
14:29
Laallee - yes, drill location was changed. O/T - that Gramacho article takes me back a few years!!
linton78
19/2/2018
13:37
Yoda, I am certain that the drill location that Gucwa is on about has changed. Bill Schrader came in a picked a cheaper/shallower location. Keep them coming, we need another Messiah, you are the Messiah, aren't you? I hope so, the last one has shot his bolt!
laallee
19/2/2018
13:31
Just came across an excellent post from the very well respected poster Gramacho. I was stood next to him as he quizzed our former COO some 6 years ago now! Author Gramacho Date posted 2012-03-19 11:53 Subject Some Thoughts Post Oilbarrel Votes for this Posting Voted UP 71 times. Message Well the opportunity to meet our COO and other shareholders at Oilbarrel did not disappoint! It was great to meet Paul Gucwa and many posters from this BB. I have probably been to Oilbarrel ten times in the last 2-1/2 years and this was as good access to company management that I have had in that time. This post includes messages gleaned from Paul Gucwa and several thoughts that have arisen having had time to digest the day’s information. There are several references to GKPs Shaikan Field in this post. This is because that field shows the potential of the BPC structures to be exceptionally good discoveries. It is what has drawn me to BPC. Note square parenthesis [ ] are used for my own comments where there is a possibility they may be mistaken for those of PG or Ryder Scott. THE WELL PG gave an interesting response to a question about how many targets the well would test. In the 2 wells where the logs were good enough to give reliable estimates of reservoir potential Ryder Scott identified about twenty potential reservoir zones in each well but it assumed 1 reservoir in each of three main intervals. This was an interesting response as the number twenty did not ring a bell with me. The report says that “the Doubloon Saxon and Great Isaac wells exhibit multiple potential reservoir intervals” within three main Cretaceous zones. And it goes on to say that [in its monte carlo simulation to generate a probability distribution of resource outcomes] “In 70% of the realizations for each mapped horizon on each structure a single reservoir is developed; in 20% two are developed and in 10% three are developed. “ So what this means is that for the combined intervals beneath the Top Cretaceous, Top Albian and Top Aptian in 70% of the runs there are three reservoirs, in 20% there are six reservoirs and in 10% there are a total of nine reservoirs intervals. Looking again at the report it also says RS chose twenty one intervals in Doubloon Saxon and seventeen in the Great Isaac “as potential analog(ue)s for reservoirs that might be encountered on the Bain Cooper and Donaldson licenses”. So thanks to PG for the reminder as to why it is reasonable to expect multiple reservoirs. There are possible targets from about 2000ft to 22000ft with carbonates present over much of it so it should come as no surprise that this vast interval should contain so many potential reservoirs. The preliminary expected well cost is $120MM to 22500ft which will provide 5000 ft of Jurassic penetration and reach the mid Jurassic. We didn’t discuss whether this is a dry hole cost (it is usual to quote dry hole costs). Paul also quoted a much reduced cost for a shallower option of drilling to 16,000 ft ($60-70MM I believe he said). We didn’t get the chance to discuss what lay behind this option but presumably if drilling ROPs are low in the Jurassic or if drilling problems are more likely based on previous wells, the cost/risk reward balance has to be addressed. The water depth is too shallow for a 5th or 6th generation DP rig so the plan is to use an anchored rig. [The riser angle is higher at shallower water depths for a given lateral displacement away from the wellhead allowing less tolerance for station keeping and loss of position.] So don’t assume that because the Scarabeo 9 is on the front cover of the presentation that this rig is being considered. It is more about it being topical lol! This means it is likely to be a 3rd or 4th generation rig that will not command the $500+k/d rates of the latest rigs although I believe some of the later rigs can be moored. Although PG didn’t confirm the duration assumed in the prelim estimates, IMO $120MM would allow for about 180 days for drilling, evaluation and P&A (or suspension). This is based on costs reported by RKH using a 3rd generation rig but assuming lower logistics costs than it incurred due to the remoteness of the FIs. The long duration will present an interesting situation regarding news flow during the well because the Top Albian, which is the shallowest target recognised in the CPR, will be at about 6-7,000 ft. If the well ends up being operated by a major this is where the policy/interests of the major and an AIM minnow regarding news flow will diverge. The major may be happy to sit on good news for months until the well is completed but the minnow is bound by AIM regs to issue news when an event occurs, like a discovery in the Albian, that would have a material effect on the share price RISKS The following sections collate some of the discussions that relate to risk mitigation. A. Productivity Risk - Presence of Natural Fractures These are extremely important in ensuring low porosity carbonate reservoirs will flow at commercial rates. Paul confirmed that BPC has core samples from a previous well (or wells?) that do show the presence of natural fractures. He indicated that this was from the deeper section particularly in Doubloon Saxon. This is very encouraging as the indications are that the previous wells were not drilled on well developed folds such as Folds A, B and C that make up BPCs prospects. The folding observed in BPCs seismic should further promote and enhance fracturing of the reservoir rocks. B. Drilling Environment – Cost Risk In the shallows PG believes there are caverns as well as fractures. Doubloon Saxon was drilled up on the platform where the water depths have always been shallower and the formations very likely to be subject to dissolution brought about by sea level changes. PG believes that the advantage of the current crop of prospects is that they developed in a deeper water environment and are less likely to be subject to that amount of dissolution. [It is good to have some dissolution from the perspective of porosity development but you can have too much leading to very difficult drilling conditions. GKPs Shaikan Field is overlain by shallow water Cretaceous formations that have been desperately difficult and time consuming to drill. There have been numerous sidetracks and GKP have had to resort to air drilling in an attempt to reduce costly mud losses.] So from the perspective of drilling risk, which will be considered carefully by a potential farminees as the farminee will be bearing that cost risk, it is good to know that a well (Doubloon Saxon) has been successfully drilled to almost 22,000’ in what should be a more challenging environment than BPCs prospects. Hurricanes of course are a risk to durations and costs. The seismic boat had to leave twice. BPC wants to be able to spud a well between December and February to avoid or minimise the risk of interruptions due to hurricanes. C. Offset Well Failures – Applicability to BPC Prospects It would have been useful to have run a tie line from the BPC prospects to the nearest well Doubloon Saxon as part of the 3D survey. However Paul explained that the difference in WDs meant that they could not run a line as part of the 2D survey or 3D survey because of the contrast in water depths. The very shallow water at Doubloon Saxon makes it extremely difficult to acquire seismic without a lot of surface noise. A Tenneco report prepared after the well was drilled indicated the data was reprocessed but that after the noise was removed there was no data left to work with. PG has looked at seismic and he is convinced Tenneco did not drill a valid trap. [Nevertheless the live oil shows and evidence of permeability are very encouraging.] D Elements of the Petroleum System The four components of a petroleum system have to be present for a prospect to work and become a commercial discovery namely: • A trap (container) within which hydrocarbons can accumulate. • The presence of a reservoir rock with sufficient thickness and porosity to hold a commercial quantity of hydrocarbons and sufficient permeability to enable the hydrocarbons to be produced at commercial rates. • A source rock that is sufficiently mature (cooked) to have generated and expelled a sufficient quantity of hydrocarbons with a migration route to the prospect. • A seal i.e. an impermeable rock to prevent expelled hydrocarbons from escaping to surface and preserve the hydrocarbons at pressure. Paul was asked by another PI how he viewed this opportunity, “How excited was he as an oilman?” He answered this by stepping through the elements of a petroleum system. • Structures remain present on the 3D that will form the trap. Folds B and C benefit from having quite a significant roll over above the faults that either bound or penetrate the traps. [Hence there will be a series of 4-way traps at different horizons with a high proportion of the total prospect pore volume that does not depend on the faults to seal.] • There is little doubt that reservoir is present given the thickness of carbonate section and what has been seen in offset wells even though the depositional environment is slightly different. • He believes the 3D will discriminate between intervals of anhydrite and dolomite such that reservoir/seal pairs will be identified. • He is more comfortable now about source and migration now that the 3D is showing a fairway towards the Cuban foredeep area. I asked him if the migration distances are realistic (i.e. not excessively long) and he had no doubt about this citing other foreland basins around the world such as the Zagros (where Shaikan is located) and the Rocky Mountains and the tar sands in Canada. 3D SEISMIC INTERPRETATION The loss of the Albian and Aptian traps in Fold A (they were a velocity effect on the 2D that disappeared in depth on the 3D) was a softened a little by the discovery of a second migration route with a larger fetch area from the west to focus more oil into the BPC acreage. I asked PG whether the 3D was showing any seismic attributes; there had been a comment by DG consultants that the 2010 survey had shown a flat spot and some amplitude variations over the structures. Paul was reluctant to get excited about any 3D attributes because of the absence of a nearby well, especially with carbonate rocks which have a rigid framework and where the fluids do not have much of an effect on velocity and only a slight effect on density. [This indicates that in BPCs case the 3D is not expected to show any Direct Hydrocarbon Indicators which in other environments would reduce the risk and increase the COS.] IMO there is a risk that the Cretaceous volumes in B and C calculated from the 3D will decrease versus the 2D volumes somewhat but they will nevertheless remain huge structures. Paul mentioned during the presentation that the closure at Aptian level in Fold B based on the 3D seismic is just under 300 km2 and that this was comparable with structures in the Middle East. He is correct of course. Take GKPs Shaikan Field for example. In the main body of the field the area under closure is about 160 km2 and vertical closure at the Jurassic reservoirs is between 1600 -2000m compared with 1400 m of closure in the Fold B Aptian. Hence the Aptian has almost twice the area and about 80% of the vertical closure. This means that the Fold B structure is much larger than even Shaikan which IMO holds over 13 Bn bbl OIP with a minimum of 3.75 Bn bbl oil recoverable. The seismic only shows that we have a big container and it is a big step to go from that to knowing it contains an enormous volume of oil. I agree with PG that there will be reservoir/seal pairs that should provide large reservoir volumes. Jurassic source rock quality and whether it can generate sufficient oil to produce Shaikan levels of OIP is the big unknown. During the presentation PG talked about the Upper Jurassic being a world class source rock worldwide and that it has proven to be in Cuba, Mexico and the US. However Fig 9 of the CPR shows the average TOC levels of the source rocks in Western Cuba are at the lower end of what is required. It is not yet known how representative this is moving East towards BPC acreage. Of course a large fetch area implied by the ramp of the Jurassic from Cuba to Fold B may more than make up for the modest TOC content. Any shrinkage of the 3D versus 2D structure volumes will hopefully be countered by the improved imaging of the Jurassic. Given the large area of the 3D survey it would be surprising if one or two Jurassic prospects did not result from the3D interpretation, possibly play type 4 illustrated in slide 7 of the BPC presentation. During the presentation Paul mentioned that he believes the Jurassic is equally as prospective as the Cretaceous. [The RS CPR could not attribute any resources to the Jurassic because it could not be imaged well enough by the 2D.] THE AGM PG thought the AGM will be held in the IOM this year. The date has not yet been set but is likely to be in June (along with lots of other AIM oilies). I have requested if possible that it not clash with GKP as it has the largest UK retail investor base. There are also plans to hold an event following the AGM potentially in London. I got the impression this would be an open event but didn’t clarify who would be organising it. THE CUBAN WELLS PG mentioned during the presentation that whilst a discovery would be encouraging a dry hole would not necessarily be bad news for BPCs prospects. During the break he indicated that a success would provide comfort that the source rock is present and mature and migration has taken place. The Repsol well is located where both Cretaceous and Jurassic source rocks are likely to be mature. He confirmed as expected the Russian well is the one of most interest. Zarubezhneft covered the entire Block L with 3D seismic [so the good news is that the well will have been picked off the 3D which should reduce the risk of an artefact structure]. The well location is not yet known. PG could not confirm how BPC might gain access to the well results other than indicating they would be trying their best to do so. [Simon Potter has worked in Russia so he is better placed than most to get access to the Russians.] The more recent discoveries in Cuba are lighter oil and BPC is not expecting to find the heavy oil associated with the earlier finds which are shallow and therefore biodegraded [due to water washing and the low reservoir temperatures which enable the crude loving bugs to survive and thrive]. An oil of API in the mid 20s with some sulphur is expected. [Note that if some oil has migrated into shallower reservoirs in the Tertiary it would be biodegraded but the RS report does not credit the Tertiary with any resources.] PG believes that production could well end up being sold to the US as it has underutilised refining capacity. He doesn’t believe involvement by anyone drilling in Cuba would prevent the oil being sold in the US as its argument is not with the Bahamas. PARTNER/FARM IN BPC is talking to a mix of small and large companies. Drilling expertise and a significant offer seem to be the two most important criteria in partner selection. An indicative offer is a pre-requisite to viewing the 3-D. At least one of the companies has an involvement with Cuban exploration. Results of the Cuban well appear to be a factor in the farm in process. Farm In Terms BPC is looking for payment of back costs, a carry on the first well and a contribution towards the second well for a stake in the four southern licences. That is at least $170MM based before a contribution to the second well is factored in. How expensive would this deal be relative to other recent exploration deals in frontier acreage on a $/bbl of risked prospective resources? The loss of the Albian and Aptian horizons in Structure A reduces the gross unrisked recoverable resources to 3.2Bn bbl in Structures A, B, C and D based on the 2D volumetrics. This is equates to 812 mm bbl on a risked basis. However IMO a major or supermajor may discount the higher risk horizons with COS <20%. BPC has prospective resources of 738 mm bbl with COS of >= 20%. Hence if a farminees covers back costs and pays the cost of 1 well to earn a 50% WI it is paying 170/(738 x 0.5) = $0.46/risked bbl prospective resources. BPs 3Q 11 farm in to CHARs 2714A licence block in Namibia for 25% WI is an obvious comparison to make. BP acquired 400 mm bbl WI risked prospective resources of which 290 mm bbl are in prospects with a COS>=20%. Back costs were about $50MM (possibly slightly less as CHARs figure may include a small overlap of 3D into an adjacent CHAR block not included in the deal). 2714A doesn’t require an ultra deepwater rig and IMO well cost will be about $55MM gross including mob meaning BPs farm in costs are around $77.5MM. This equates to a price of $0.26/risked bbl prospective resources. However Namibian PSC terms are less attractive than those of the Bahamas probably because it has a proven commercial hydrocarbon system in the form of the Kudu gas field. CHAR values its Nimrod prospect at $8.1/bbl in this block (March 12 presentation slide 29) and prospects in other blocks at $10.2/bbl and $12.2/bbl. BPC values should be higher despite the higher development costs due to the better terms. Under the Namibia PSC terms Government share is 55%. The two deals can be compared on a risked NPV10 per Exploration $ spend basis. If Namibia cost = 0.26 $/risked bbl then 1/0.26 = 3.85 bbl are discovered/Exploration $ And NPV10 = 3.85 x 8.1 = $31/Expl $ spend Similarly for BPCs farminees If cost = 0.46 $/risked bbl then 1/0.46 = 2.17 bbl are discovered/$ of Expl spend For a Bahamanian prospect to be comparable it needs to be worth about $15/bbl, then NPV10 = 2.17 x 15 = $33/ $ of Exploration spend Given the favourable Bahamanian terms, $15/bbl does not look unreasonable. My RKH Sea Lion Field model achieves $14/bbl with the FI terms of 9% royalty and 26% CT. A success case discovery at Fold B producing 350,000 bbl/d would incur a weighted average royalty of 17% and no CT. Royalty is a more punishing tax than CT because it comes straight off the top, there are no allowances. Hence I suspect the two regimes are broadly comparable. SUMMARY This continues to look extremely good from a technical perspective and that will feed into the commercial aspects of the farm in. IMO BPC will secure a farm in partner under attractive terms. I would feel more comfortable if they had the cash to go it alone and thereby have more leverage over potential farminees. If the BEST commission (Bahamas Environmental Scientific and Technical Board) makes its recommendation regarding the EIA and the new government is able to move forward after the elections then that will be very positive for sentiment. That could be an opportunity to raise cash if it is needed for leverage in negotiations. There will be lots more prospects to work up with additional 2D and 3D in the new licences and possibly more 3D to run in the existing licences so the money can be put to good use even if the farminee funds the first well. Looking forward to more progress in 2012. Regards & GLA, Gramacho
theoriginalyoda
19/2/2018
13:27
Offer up to 1.30 .... we turn back to break even for the day :-)
linton78
19/2/2018
13:23
That certainly was a chunky buy... further buys coming in quickly from 12.30/1pm.
linton78
19/2/2018
12:59
Ryder Scott, who completed the Competetent Persons Report for BPC, advised the previous drills in the Bahamas from 1947 to 1986 had each "encountered thick carbonate and evaporate deposits with indications of hydrocarbons", and they assume "that a mature hydrocarbon source of undefined volume is likely to be present". Ryder Scott go on to say that "based on similarities between the reservoir descriptions in these fields and the lithologies (rock characteristics) observed in the Doubloon Saxon and Great Isaac wells (two of the wells drilled earlier) it appears reasonable that the expected reservoirs in the prospect areas should be able to produce at sufficient rates to allow economic development." Now, until the mid 1980's, technology limited any offshore drilling to waters under 500ft. These limitations were around when Doubloon was planned and drilled, so it was never possible for Tenneco, Gulf, BP, Shell and all the others who looked at the shallow areas, to drill the super giant features mapped in 500 - 2,000 feet water depth. Even research in these areas were very limited, it is well known in the industry that seismic technology was a challenge in shallow water in those days, this all led to poor placement of early wells. As most know, from 1986 to 2003 the price of oil was so low while the cost of exploration and production very high, so drilling the site BPC have was simply too uneconomical to even entertain. Then along came Alan Burns and BPC. They carried out a 4 year search costing $4m, collating and buying original seismic data, well logs and original well cores from around the world to put the puzzle together. Part of this work included digitalising original analog well logs and having the work re-evaluated by Schlumberger, Ryder Scott and numerous other experts and university partners using advanced computer programmes. It is what enabled them to have the confidence to commit £26m on extensive seismic work, appointing CGG Veritas and also commissioning a multi-beam geochemical seabed survey. Subsequently BPC now have more information today than was ever held by multiple previous licencees, we are the only company in the world that has a comprehensive set of data and managed a thorough evaluation of the exploration potential. Time is nigh.
theoriginalyoda
19/2/2018
12:59
blue at close today :-)
tel11
19/2/2018
12:59
Buys from over the pond coming in now?
whoppy
19/2/2018
12:45
I understand the Government suggest two more pieces of news, is that right? If so, one is likely to be licence extensions in my view, the other could be anything. Would this new ethos from the Goverment mean they want to partner us, they'll take a much bigger stake and $60m would be money well spent, even if it trained Bahamians within the industry.
theoriginalyoda
19/2/2018
12:42
Afternoon Laallee. It sure will pop out. Sooner I only too. I'm more hopeful today than at any time in the last 8 years mate. Never before has the Bahamian Government seemed more aligned to the oil industry. At the end of the day they HAVE to create wealth. Massive debt, 2 out of 3 Finance houses have them at junk status. Tourism, nor fishing will reduce that debt. This administration seem to know that. Most LTH's here are battered. Some have traded well and bought a Jag. At the end of the day the new Government ethos, oil prices and new legislation is now all in place at the same time for the first time in BPC's decade existence. BPC have already told us they're in in depth talks, they have been talking to potential partners for years. With these critical points aligned for the first time, I strongly believe a deal will come sooner rather than later.
theoriginalyoda
19/2/2018
12:35
Big trades were being kept hidden on Friday. That's £56k in one go. Doesn't seem like retail investor. Someone with inside knowledge?
whoppy
19/2/2018
12:17
Interesting... that's the largest buy order for BPC in some time
linton78
19/2/2018
11:34
yoda, keep pushing buddy. it'll pop out sooner or later.
laallee
19/2/2018
09:27
Some old research on why the Bahamas saw little drilling is worth revisiting as it remains the same today, feel free to spread the love onto other sites. https://www.bpcplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/oilbarrell27october_085123__2_.pdf Why The Bahamas saw Limited Activity until BPC personnel lodged Applications in 2005 Technology hindered deep water exploration in the pre and mid 1980’s Drilling technology limited to less than 500 feet - As a consequence, Tenneco was unable to drill the super giant features mapped in 500 - 2,000 feet water depth Seismic acquisition technology was also a challenge in shallow water - This led to poor placement of early wells Discencentivised international exploration activity post 1985 Crash in oil and gas commodity prices from 1986 to 2003 led companies to remain in producing areas Complete loss of all technical data in The Bahamas No data room in The Bahamas, Bahamas Government geological data destroyed in major hurricanes in 1980’s BPC initiates a global search for data BPC is the only company to have a comprehensive data set and managed thorough evaluation of the exploration potential Search and acquisition of original seismic data, well logs and chance finds of the original well cores took 4 years and cost over $4 million Original well logs were analog and BPC have had them digitised and re-evaluated by Schlumberger and other parties using advanced computer programmes Well cores were discovered by BPC by chance in an abandoned warehouse in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina
theoriginalyoda
19/2/2018
09:25
I think we are on the long road to recovery in share price Can only see positive news from now on.
whoppy
19/2/2018
09:18
With this new refinery finally being announced, the current administration are clearly being far more proactive. That will bring a deal to closure. Remember the real meat of discussions has already been done in the data room over the last few years. Partners have just been waiting for the three alignments. 1. A better oil price 2. New legislation 3. A proactive Government We now have all of these for the first time in a decade, ever since BPC became a listed company.
theoriginalyoda
19/2/2018
09:11
Time to take a position and hold ..... I wouldn't risk trading this share for now.
linton78
19/2/2018
09:01
Auction 1.25 - 1.25
under the radar
19/2/2018
08:35
Two more big oil contracts to be announced in the next two Mondays (government statement) with additional oil related news to follow over the coming weeks (government statement).Going to get very exciting very soon here as people realise the importance of this news to BPC and will soon be hundreds of posts here
lithological heterogeneities
19/2/2018
08:32
Don't forget the big Bahamas oil contract is officially announced today and they are 5 hours behind the UK so assuming the working day starts at 0800am then it's going to be released from 1300 onwards UK time.I think trading will begin to pick up from then as people cotton on to the BPC connection.A good week ahead.
lithological heterogeneities
19/2/2018
08:26
Going to add to my holding here, pure punt but at these levels the r r is too good. originally got in a 1.05, could drop back to those levels, but would rather beadding now, just in case
urigem
Chat Pages: 1287  1286  1285  1284  1283  1282  1281  1280  1279  1278  1277  1276  Older
Your Recent History
LSE
GKP
Gulf Keyst..
LSE
QPP
Quindell
FTSE
UKX
FTSE 100
LSE
IOF
Iofina
FX
GBPUSD
UK Sterlin..
Stocks you've viewed will appear in this box, letting you easily return to quotes you've seen previously.

Register now to create your own custom streaming stock watchlist.

By accessing the services available at ADVFN you are agreeing to be bound by ADVFN's Terms & Conditions

P:30 V: D:20180219 18:02:36