Bacanora Lithium Share Discussion Threads

[farrugia] 06/9/2021 16:48

and I closed my EUA trade as well today - I learned that its better to take fast, big chunky profits even if i may regret it!

[igbertsponk] 06/9/2021 15:51

A guess? A Tuesday.

[uhound] 06/9/2021 15:49

Sold out also.

Not a big holding, so will take my profit of 52% and move on.

[adobbing] 06/9/2021 15:18

So from trawling through the RNS;

“The Bacanora Independent Directors also intend to make a distribution in specie, comprising the Zinnwald Shares currently owned by Bacanora, to all Bacanora Shareholders (including Ganfeng) on the record date, being the date the Offer becomes or is declared unconditional.”;

“ being the date the Offer becomes or is declared unconditional.”;
Anyone have any educated guesses on when this might be?

[farrugia] 06/9/2021 15:01

Yes, that the problem - how long will you wait? I've been waiting for long enough to unlock value here. I'm looking for the kind of movements of Eurasia Mining not a limbo scenario. Without that opportunistic bid and self-serving directors BCN's stock price could have been higher by now than current. Now BCN is faced with a hard ceiling not to mention that there are possible regulatory headwinds (will the Mexican government approve the deal) and country-risks (Mexico being a high-risk country).

[bsg] 06/9/2021 14:48

October some time, I think. Read the RNS?

[adobbing] 06/9/2021 14:36

Past experience of these kind of takeovers, is you end up waiting forever for the cash.
Tempted to also dump at or just above current price.
Is there a date you need to hold these until, to qualify for the ZNWD shares?

[bsg] 06/9/2021 14:19

You've just kissed goodbye to ~16000 ZNWD shares!

... possibly.

[farrugia] 06/9/2021 14:01

just sold my 70,000 lot at 66.10 - there seems to be quite some demand at 66. That is good enough for me and frees up money i can put somewhere else.

[hpcg] 03/9/2021 22:33

The Mexican government want the site developed so that tax revenue can be generated. The better capitalised the developer the better from their perspective.

[bountyhunter] 03/9/2021 19:01

The only thing missed is that the deal is dependent on the Mexican authorities approval - not yet received, hence the risk premium - i.e. the Mexicans could block it, which is why I prefer a direct investment in ZNWD, especially at the current price.

Re the BCN deal execution risk see post 5507 and the details from the RNS concerning the prerequisite Mexican authorities approvals detailed below.

From the BCN RNS..

- as certain of Bacanora's assets are held in and by Mexican corporate entities, the Offer is conditional upon obtaining unconditional approval from the Mexican Federal Economic Competition Commission (the "FECC") (the "Mexican Antitrust Clearance")

...the Offer will not become or be declared unconditional unless the following Conditions (as amended if appropriate) have been satisfied or, where relevant, waived:
Mexican competition clearance
2.1 either (a) the deemed unconditional approval of the Offer by the FECC, or (b) the issuance by the FECC of a resolution granting unconditional approval of the Offer

So as the BCN deal is not without noteworthy execution risk, buying BCN now and assuming the cash + the ZNWD distribution is all but guaranteed is not necessarily a wise move - hence the current price of BCN shares as the Mexican Government could block the BCN takeover by Ganfeng. So as always the current market valuation takes all factors into account.

[twowheels] 03/9/2021 17:18

longshanks, probably not missing anything but tbh I just sold- figured it would be a while before Gangfeng actually trumped up cash and in the meantime I'm happy to redeploy capital instead of waiting for a -maybe- 10% extra. Thanks everyone for the insights in the thread. Happy with 50% profits after investing earlier this year!

[longshanks] 31/8/2021 12:03

Am I missing something here?It looks like me that shareholders are due a distribution of ZNWD shares equivalent to ~6.1p and that this is available on all BCN shares bought before the offer becomes unconditional. And that under the terms of the offer, it won't become unconditional before 6th October.If so - seems odd to have such a big discount still

[jlondon] 26/8/2021 14:47

---Day after takeover offer by Ganfeng--
Mexican govt silent. Mexican press silent and the chatter etc. No sound on Twitter from these corners vs previous. Why? The Mexican govt has asked how they intend to tackle the manufacturing of the clay ie the chemical processes etc. The Chief Geologist of Mexico said that no one has yet produced "commercial quantitites" of lithium from clay. Also, the govt asked the co if they require the army to be in the factory. PS said no as they will have their own guards. Why? The Mexican govt fears that the ma fia will want to be in the mix for the lithium etc. So, there is what is commonly known as "execution risk" as norm in mining projects of a general nature but in this case, one of chemistry as well. Hence, during this period, no other co has come forth to offer for BCN prior to yesterday*s offer, 25 Aug 2021.

ZNWD
Malik on Twitter under ZNWD said that on the takeover completed the institutions will also be holders of ZNWD given BCN holders on the record date will get the former. I posted yesterday who the institutions are. Malik posted the names of some of the institutions on Twitter.

TAKEOVER
The original offer of 67.5p has now been lifted to 73.6p per the articles, the difference comes from the free Zinnwald shares.

So, the history is complete. From recall, the broker target was around the £1 mark which was also the offer REM plc made but was rejected at the time. Whilst the NPV for Sonora is US$1.25bn [PRE-TAX], BCN no longer owns 100% of the project but only 50% and a bit less as part of the project also involves REM Mexico Ltd who signed the agreement then under DL. It is still registered in the name REM Mexico Ltd. Also, no more sound of nat by the Mex govt given they are aware of the above as said. All public info. I posted yesterday that the deal is worth US$393m on the FX rate yesterday although FT gave it in £.

So, that is the past, present and of the future, only time will tell. DYOR. Currently, the share price to buy is 66.99p @2:50pm, Thur, 26 Aug 2021.

Thur 26 Aug 2021.

[farrugia] 26/8/2021 12:39

until what date is the conversion to Zinnwald shares effective?

[gepetto100] 26/8/2021 11:34

But offering .24 ZInnwald shares for ever 1 BCN share held

[return_of_the_apeman] 26/8/2021 09:24

Might be an opportunity to arb between this and ZNWD perhaps

[jlondon] 25/8/2021 23:59

On ADVFN ZNWD, a poster called bounty hunter has got the translation in English.
"Lithiumrausch Zinnwald."

"A show mine is already feeling the boom, the raw material , which is so important for e-cars & smartphones is ALSO AROUSING DESIRES IN CHINA."

Per bounty hunter: "Even if not the Germans then given the scramble for lithium the DAYS LEFT FOR ZINNWALD as an independent co must be numbered?"

[return_of_the_apeman] 25/8/2021 23:31

Another 10% to come from this in 2 months :-)

Might get there much sooner, we shall see

Gla

[jlondon] 25/8/2021 20:56

A new article has just been published in German:
"Lithiumrausch in Zinnwald."-Freie Presse, 1 hr ago, Wed 25 Aug 2021.

In English: "Lithium rush in Zinnwald." 25 Aug 2021
hxxps://www.freiepresse.de/nachrichten/wirtschaft/wirtschaft-regional/lithiumrausch-in-zinnwald-artikel11677388 or call up the title to read if the link is faulty.

Its about the BCN Zinnwald etc. Interesting.

[ptolemy] 25/8/2021 19:59

Nothing has been achieved until we have a Record Date which could be year-end. Before then Ganfeng need to get 50% s/h agreement. Shouldn't be too difficult since they, the non-Execs and M&G (who support the t/o) own approx 43%. Second hurdle is Mexican anti-trust clearance. Third hurdle is we don't know the value of the Zinnwald Distribution until the first date we can sell the shares; the Record Date. It's being reported as an extra 6p on the original offer (taking it from 67.5 to 73.5), but that's misleading and it can be anything from nothing to infinity.

[jlondon] 25/8/2021 19:09

"China*s biggest lithium group secures deal for UK-listed Bacanora Lithium."-Financial Times, 25 Aug 2021

"Ganfeng said it has secured a letter from Bacanora*s 2nd largest shareholder, M & G which owns 14% of the co. Ganfeng which needs -------50%-----of shareholders to support the deal, already owns 29% of Bacanora." Premium rises to 63% with the additional shares in Zinnwald. Values BCN at £284.8 Million.
==
Comment: To read the full article, call up the title as above to check.On another BCN forum, it was posted: "but a majority of shareholders, regardless of how much they own, must also approve it." 7:05pm, 25 Aug 2021 post. Not sure how this came about as the poster thinks even buying "10 shares" would help?

Today, exchange rate is £1=US$1.38. So £284.8m = US$393 million.

[jlondon] 25/8/2021 18:38

BCN shareholders:
Ganfeng 28.9%
M & G 13.7%
HL 5.3%
Robeco Asset Mgm 4.24%
Hanwa 3.21%
HL Asset Mgm 2.76%
Credit Agricole 2.11%
Igneous Capital 1.81%
Henderson Global Inv 1.8%
Northern Trust Global Inv 1.67%
Source: Market Screener, Wed 25 Aug 2021.
==
"Bacanora Lithium shares rise after agreeing to sweetened offer from Ganfeng."-Market Watch

Ganfeng increased its offer to -----73.6p---- in cash & Zinnwald shares [cash 67.5p]
+0.23589 Zinnwald shares for each BCN share. "Ganfeng has received commitments to ACCEPT the offer from the M & G recovery fund which controls around 13.7% BCN shares."

Ganfeng first invested in BCN in 2019 and ----"currently OWNS 50% of the Sonora Lithium project in Mexico------operated by BCN."

Comment:
On another forum today, 25 Aug 2021, it was quoted that Sonora Lithium*s NPV is US$1.25 billion. This figure was from the 2018 Scoping Study which is PRE-TAX for 100% share. BCN no longer owns 100% of Sonora Lithium project as above?

[igbertsponk] 25/8/2021 17:01

There is I admit the possibility that Ganfeng will take over the whole of Zinnwald, probably for about half the price it currently is.