Bacanora Lithium Share Discussion Threads

[pugugly] 06/2/2018 10:11

Calling thsi sub 90p - More blood to come (imo) Compnews1 - You are so very right.

[compnews1] 06/2/2018 07:36

CFO stepped down - a classic problem in small company having difficulty in getting finance - see link below from London Stock Exchange

"Ms Boyce replaces Mr Derek Batorowski, who is stepping down as CFO to pursue other business interests"

[compnews1] 05/2/2018 16:18

Market everywhere is falling & will continue to do so. Financing will get more difficult and expensive. Don't rush into this yet.

[rossowheels] 03/2/2018 10:21

BCN is a good place to be if you want to invest in the future which is coming fast. They have a long way to go before they see any profit though as they need to raise finance (debt/equity) to build & operate a plant and then sell the off take for a profit. It's been interesting watching progress over the last few years & although I'm not currently invested I shall probably reinvest once the project has been further derisked.

[richsawko] 02/2/2018 12:23

Note that the price of 94p was agreed when the deal was announced at that point the share price was lower. Talk of an immediate dropping of lithium to other battery materials is not new. The whole industry is evolving and as with petrol/diesel/Hydrogen engine all types will be marketed to certain extents.I do not think BCN is in a bad place at all to benefit from electric car as well as solar power battery production in this embryonic stage

[compnews1] 02/2/2018 09:57

94ish/share below market price. This has just reminded me of Bango (BGO), a placing was done at 180p, below the market price. Since then BGO share price has gone downward. I shall wait for further fall in BCN

[compnews1] 01/2/2018 10:19

Nextview paid 94ish pence per share plus the completion is being extended - delayed!. there are still a lot of uncertainties, some difficulty with project financing & why ?. The share price is still overpriced - may be 100p most

[pugugly] 01/2/2018 07:23

Funding delay


"Bacanora Minerals Ltd., the London and Canadian listed lithium exploration and development company, is pleased to confirm that its previously announced equity offering with NextView Capital ("NextView"), a leading Chinese institutional fund management group focused on new technologies and energy, is ongoing. As announced via news release dated 14 December 2017, NextView has agreed to acquire 32,976,635 common shares in the Company (the "Placing") at a price of 94.53 pence (approximately C$1.6223) per share for aggregate gross proceeds of £31,172,813 (approximately C$53,498,000). The previously estimated date for completion (being end of January 2018) is being extended and both parties remain committed to proceeding with the Placing. Further timing updates will be provided as and when available. "

Question is are the Chinese trying to renegotiate share price downwards in view of the production upgrades at SQM and also the recent Ford announcment that the see the future in Solid State batteries ?

[kexicus] 29/1/2018 09:35

Mention for BCN in this article yesterday. Interesting read:-https://thewest.com.au/business/public-companies/lithium-australias-german-partner-wins-key-exploration-licence-ng-b88727370z

[richsawko] 26/1/2018 08:14

Despite all the deramping this is holding up well

[tutthetrader] 25/1/2018 10:31

This ones right up you’re street take a look at MKA it’s gonna blow.....

[pugugly] 25/1/2018 10:25

Lithium price forecasts have been reduced - but still very grey area - See FT Lex today most if not all lithium miners probaby over valued.

[igbertsponk] 25/1/2018 09:39

There you go again with the doom and gloom.
the price they've used is already way below market forecasts.

And the Director exercised options, not a straight purchase, so the 77p irrelevant.

Guess you're looking to add?

[compnews1] 25/1/2018 09:17

BCN has filled Feasibility Study for the Sonora Li project in Mexico. I have seen many projects filling their FS in the past, filling is one thing, Financing is the next key step. The company seems to emphasis on internal rate of return and PRE-tax NPV of ~ 26% and $1250million - the actual post tax figure is ~$800million Our money is at risk so we want to see CASH return on our investment post tax. Let's hope they get finanicing at 8%. By the way Investor Chronicle suggested 106p/share assuming they get financing. Their director recently paid 77p. The share price is currently overpriced

[compnews1] 22/1/2018 09:39

Price is the most sensitive variable, 20% reduction in price could easily knock off a couple of hundred millions off NPV. Yes, project finance is another key issue, banker will now have better miners to choose from. Assuming the technical side is all in good order, bankers would want a higher premium from junior minor . If you are still interested in buy BCN shares, I would not base on the post tax NPV of US$802 million but probably half of that to be on safe side. The current share price is overpriced. As someone in this panel pointed out there have been sell off of other miners

[igbertsponk] 22/1/2018 09:38

A lower market price will mean less investment as many competing schemes wouldn't be viable at much less than £10/kg. So Bacanora a winner whatever.

[pugugly] 20/1/2018 13:07

melody9999 - Yes but as you say AT MARKET PRICES. Given the SQM increased volume permits - and relarivly easy to ramp up production from brine the critical factor as to whether to hold - buy more or sell Bacanora is whast will be the market price for Lithium carbonate in say 2 to 3 years time - Jury appears to be out at the moment - If supply ramps up more than demand - and supply side will have very significant sunk capital they may be forced to sell at anything above marginal cost of production in order to service their debt costs. That will leave very little for the equity holders.

From Hotcopper "For western based lithium chemical producers (SQM, ALB, FMC and ORE) what I have called the new normal pricing of $12 - $15/kg seems a good bet into the next decade. " but who knows - Remember iron ore crashed from over $ 160 per ton to $40 per ton before recovering to current approx $80-

Similar but not such an extreme position for copper and coal

So the investment value or otherwise of a Lithium project will be the guessed margin between all in cost of production and the selling price.

Guesses :?

[melody9999] 19/1/2018 23:37

remember we have offtake agreements already in place:

In addition, Bacanora has agreed to supply NextView with 5,000tpa of lithium carbonate produced at its Sonora Project in Mexico ('Sonora' or 'the Project') on a best endeavours basis at market prices from its Stage 1 of production, with a firm commitment to supply 8,000tpa of lithium carbonate during Stage 2 and a best endeavours promise to supply a further 7,000tpa during Stage 2.

[igbertsponk] 19/1/2018 14:47

Not sure about US border proximity - the plan is to truck all the lithium to a port to be sent to Japan and China for battery manufacture.

[adobbing] 19/1/2018 14:05

From what I recall the Chilean “mine” also requires a brine process that is more expensive and yields less battery quality Lithium than the pilot plant in Sonora.

The attraction of the Mexican project was;

The ease of extraction (it’s surface deposit Clay)
The high yield of battery quality end product.
The proximity to the US border and companies such as Tesla and GM’s new EV production plants.

[igbertsponk] 19/1/2018 13:50

SQM is mistaken if they think that all the customers will come to them first. There is a race to secure lithium supplies which is why big battery companies are doing supply deals with the likes of Bacanora.
And SQM will be paying chunky royalties to the Chilean Government so it won't be that sensible to try and trash the lithium price to a level at which they don't make a decent return. The SQM price hasn't moved on their announcement - it's the same as it was 5 years ago!

[steeplejack] 19/1/2018 12:24

Taken from LSE site.along with Trump calls for increased US production of lithium to reduce a 50% dependency on imports,this news hit producers yesterday,especially Albemarle.SQM, one of the leading Lithium producers in the world, reached a deal with the Chilean Government to dramatically increase their production. The increase in production will be felt throughout the industry for the next 5-10 years. Lithium stocks sold off heavily due to fears that oversupply would hit the market. SQM£s New Deal and the Lithium Market Sell OffSQM finally ended an almost four year long dispute with the Chilean Government, with the latter allowing the company to expand their lithium production quota from around roughly 50-60K tonnes today up to 216,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) through 2025. As a result of this news, the markets responded by selling off lithium stocks across the board out of worries of an oversupply caused by SQM flooding the markets. Here£s our take on what Lithium investors should consider following this news out of SQM. Impact on the Market: In our opinion, while this is major news affecting the potential supply outlook, it may not meaningfully disrupt markets for another couple of years. While it£s not as extensive as starting from scratch, a brownfield expansion like this for SQM will by no means be an instantaneous change. It£s not like they can just flip a switch and flood the market with new supply. Thus, in the shorter term, the story has not changed. Pricing: We believe the Oligopoly, and SQM who will now be the driving force of that Oligopoly, will still strive to maintain price stability in order to create the most favorable environment for themselves. As the lowest cost lithium producer, SQM is in the driver seat because the major customers will be coming to them first. So they will bring new supply on in lockstep with market demand. Remember, pricing is important because the higher the pricing = higher margins = Higher Profits for a company = Happier Shareholders (potentially of course£.if only it was that easy!). Junior Miners: The companies most affected by the news are the junior miners. Those that come online in the next 24 months might be able to carve out a piece of the pie for themselves. But in the longer term horizon, it£ll be tougher for the newer entrants to come into the market. SQM will have the capacity to keep competitors out of the market if they choose. SQM£s announcement must not have been met with great fanfare from future producers who are still 3-5 years out from production. To this point in particular, the financing market could be more challenging following this news for junior miners that still need financing.

[pugugly] 18/1/2018 21:50

New research sugests it may be possible to make Lithium batteries last longer and have more power

So potentially less lithium needed - price could fall.