Axa Property Share Discussion Threads

[hosede] 03/9/2014 17:32

One just hopes that all the "good" properties don't get sold off, leaving a rump of assets which have to be got rid of at knock down prices - so that the prospective cash return dips at the last moment. Seems to me this could be a risk

[nk104] 29/8/2014 23:51

Thanks SKYSHIP - must admit I hadn't picked this up. Another partial sale will be useful.

With APT it's not the German property I worry about, but the quarter that is in Italy. Italy seems to be going downhill at the moment, which isn't encouraging for a liquidating property trust.

[skyship] 29/8/2014 16:09

Quite encouraged by the NAV Statement to 30th Jun'14 - see Header link.

55.47p with the forex rate @ 1.25.

Also another sale promises another near term pay-out.

"The agreement for the sale of the asset at Wuerzburg was notarised on 13 August 2014 at a price of EUR 5.35 million.......it is expected that the sale will complete in the coming weeks...... The Company expects to distribute the proceeds from the sale through a further partial capital redemption which will be announced in due course."

[flyfisher] 19/8/2014 10:26

Sky, last reported fx used was 1.21 so their will be a nav reduction of about 1.8p.
man fee 1.1% p.a.
sales fee 0.35% of gross sales
incentive fee, 12.5% of any return in excess of 80% of dec 2012 nav.

Have watched this for a while but do not hold.

[skyship] 19/8/2014 09:49

No - was wondering about the former - will try and take a look this evening as now out for the day; though in the meantime could you post your estimate on that - hopefully no more than 2p fx write-down @ E1.26/£.

Presumably the revenue should wash the face of the management fee...

[flyfisher] 19/8/2014 09:28

Skyship, Have you factored in the fx changes since the last report and the managers fee structure?

[envirovision] 18/8/2014 20:18

Thats a juicy return

[skyship] 18/8/2014 18:17

I've bought back in for a few. They've drifted recently and look rather good value again, especially as they are making good progress in their liquidation; and have already made 2 x 2p repayments earlier this year.

At 41p the stats show a total repayment of 52p (current NAV = 56.68p) by 30th Jun'16 (their target is end 2015 for completion of the sale programme) would deliver a GRY of 13.57%pa. Increase the payout target to 53p and shorten the timescale to 31/03/16 and the GRY rises to...17.21%!

[skyship] 01/8/2014 16:40

KG Investments reduce stake from 5,993,761 to 2,993,761 (3.24%). Wonder where the 3m shares went...

[scburbs] 05/6/2014 17:26

Does anyone know of any Italian assets they can buy?

"AXA Real Estate has launched an Italian fund for two AXA insurance companies.

AXA Assicurazioni and AXA MPS have both committed to the new fund, which has an initial investment capacity of €350m and could invest up to €700m in European commercial real estate directly or through funds."

hxxp://www.ipe.com/10002094.article

In any event it is good to see signs of interest in Italian property picking up.

[redhill9] 27/5/2014 17:52

Sloppy wording on my part - I said "hedged" when I should have said "matched".

I think you'll find from the year end accounts that almost all of the loans are denominated in euros so euro assets and euro loans are matched up to the level of the loans and the currency exposure is therefore on the net excess, which is effectively NAV (but please do check in case I've got that wrong).

Additionally, as you say mushypeas, there is an interest rate swap arrangement in place (again, according to my notes).

[mushypeas] 27/5/2014 11:28

I believe that the loan has interest rate swap protection but no fx (see note 11 of the accounts). Without flogging through all the numbers Sky's original projections appear in the right order on the basis of simple proportion.
I continue to hold, at least for the immediate pipeline of distributions.

[redhill9] 27/5/2014 10:58

Thanks Skyship, that's a relief.

I've been concerned at the potential impact on APT of a weakening euro but you were making me wonder if I'd under-estimated the effect!

I'd been thinking in terms of maybe maximum 10% exposure to NAV of currency risk (e.g., exchange rate moving from 31 March rate of 1.21 to maybe 1.33) giving around 5p reduction from current 55p NAV, but hopefully that would be the extreme situation. The share price seems to me still to be a very attractive discount to NAV, especially for current holders with Bid price of 40.75p.

[skyship] 27/5/2014 09:22

redhill - more likely that I'm being thick - if the loans are hedged then of course the currency loss should be at the NET level. I was working on Gross Assets of £85m; so the potential decline is c64% of the above, ie 2p @ Euro rate of 1.25 & 3.2p @ 1.28.

Argument still valid, but the effect less severe.

[redhill9] 27/5/2014 08:46

Skyship, I am puzzled by your figures above. My notes indicate that the loans are 97% hedged so surely currency exposure is almost entirely at the net NAV level rather than gross? I can't see how you calculate that a 4 cent movement representing c.3% can affect a NAV of c55p by 3p per share, with a further 3 cent movement reducing NAV by a further 2p per share. Apologies if I'm being thick, but am I missing something?

[skyship] 26/5/2014 13:49

I am currently out of APT as I was concerned that a resolution of the Agnadello asset might prove a major obstacle to a successful liquidation. That seems now to be resolved – a resounding bull point.

But what is holding me back is the likelihood of further weakness in the over-valued Euro. At 31st March the cross currency rate was 1.21; we are now at 123.5p. A further fall to 1.25 would take 3.3% off the Gross Assets and translate to an NAV reduction of 3p/share. There are many banks now forecasting further falls in the Euro, with Paribas anticipating 1.28 in 2014; that would translate to a 5p reduction in the NAV!

Such a potential headwind certainly raises question marks.

[envirovision] 30/4/2014 14:17

I wonder if this is going to break below 38p

[garbetklb] 16/4/2014 19:35

Had overlooked mine arriving on Monday at Share Centre - thanks for reminder!

[nk104] 16/4/2014 13:08

Second distribution dropped into the satchel yesterday.

[redhill9] 26/3/2014 08:46

Anyone else having trouble with Barclays over the first APT distribution? I find this morning they have cancelled some APT shares (slightly too many by my calcs, but hey-ho) but no sign of the cash although they received it last week. Also, they have now released the shares net of distribution that were frozen but are also showing my gross holding pre-distribution as still frozen, so an obvious duplication.

Phoning customer services gets through to very pleasant staff who try to help but haven't a clue - I once had to explain to one of them the difference between Mid and Bid prices. I now only have ISAs with them having gradually moved my main trading to Hargreaves Lansdown but my recent experiences of Barclays, coupled with the blatant errors in functionality of their "updated" website, are making me seriously consider switching the ISAs as well.

[nk104] 25/3/2014 17:16

Share Centre processed the first distribution correctly to my account today.

I must admit I wasn't aware of the second redemption, but I'm not complaining.

[redhill9] 25/3/2014 14:53

So HL got the first distribution date (19 March)correct and we are to get another on 11 April.

Getting better - that's a total of over 7.5% of shares returned as cash at full NAV.

Stripping cash out of Net Assets obviously changes the mix comprising the residual NAV so perhaps the share price may take a dip from here, but if APT can keep the sales momentum going this could be a useful year.

[nil desperandum] 25/3/2014 13:03

Aha - just had a helpful call from HL... APT are doing two ... the first at 3.6% has closed (RNS 28 Feb) and the second at 3.97% (revised RNS 24 Mar) - bizarre!

[redhill9] 25/3/2014 11:40

Ah, I did think the cash arrived earlier than I'd expected but didn't bother checking the dates when I saw it in my account. Odd that they should have distributed cash they can't have yet received themselves.

They do have the calculation correct for me - 2p credited as cash for each share held, with 3.6% of shares held then cancelled.