Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[dr biotech] 15/1/2019 11:04

Plus you have huge external factors, brexit and orange buffoon etc. Charting can be an indication of sentiment, but it goes both ways. Anyone who solely uses charts to predict down only moves clearly doesn’t understand what they are doing.

[villarich] 15/1/2019 10:55

Sorry tongue firmly in cheek with the last post. I understand TA and chart patterns, but they aren't useful beyond a certain point. Is it in an up or down trend? What's the volume like? What are the 50 and 200 day MA's? That's all you need in my humble opinion. You then need to add in the fundamentals to get a true picture of value.

[villarich] 15/1/2019 10:52

3 wave beer mug candle pattern forming within a triple bottom formation looks bullish on the chart turned 34 degrees clockwise. Gives a target price somewhere between 300p and 550p by next Julember. Funny turn predicted on the 17th, with capitulation on the 19th.

[edmundshaw] 15/1/2019 10:36

So, out of interest, what is a reasonable yield for Aviva in your opinion, buywell?

[dr biotech] 15/1/2019 09:31

Always find it funny when some simpleton “chartist̶1; always posts that the chart says the shares will drop, without ever predicting that the shares will rise. Bit like being a pundit that says Man City will lose every week and then when it happens you smugly say “told you so not many predicted that” yes, but....

[mr woodentop] 15/1/2019 09:18

Yep, I'll definitely be buying some more. Buy low Sell high!

[uppompeii] 14/1/2019 21:59

Excellent, that'll be almost 10% yield for us income seekers.

[buywell3] 14/1/2019 21:07

AV. now sits on its cusp

IMO recent buyers will soon become eager sellers and the next leg down will be the same as the last 2 legs down

Hence my call now is 320p by end june 2019

dyor

[craigends] 14/1/2019 19:22

common theme - we survived them all. Despite our political inadequacies.
I have cause to remember the high interest rates well as moving house my mortgage rate was crippling.
This time no one is driving the bus anywhere! Westminster is like Groundhog day every day.

[essentialinvestor] 14/1/2019 16:16

From memory they did hit15%, very briefly that afternoon.

[alphorn] 14/1/2019 16:15

Azure - I would agree with most of your post; particularly about the leaders at those times. I would not agree with Brexit outside of the top ten though. Just the disruption and putting projects on hold will cost in the long run.

[zho] 14/1/2019 16:12

>>During that day he raised interest rates from 8% to 14% in a day>>

From memory rates were raised from 10% to 12%, and then from 12% to 15% before Major and Lamont were forced to concede.

[samwn1] 14/1/2019 16:12

I think the Chancellor was Norman Lamont, he certainly announced the departure. Nigel Lawson was sacked by Margaret Thatcher a few days after she gave him a glowing 'reference'.

[azure8269] 14/1/2019 16:05

If it helps calm anyone's nerves. During the 50 years I have studied the economy the 3 potential “Catastrophic Disasters” were
1) Harold Wilson and Callaghan making such a disaster of the economy the UK had to go to the international monetary fund for a bail out. They then dictated what UK could do till we were solvent again
2) John Major and his chancellor(Lawson?) trying to enter the ERM or Snake (an early version of the euro) and trying to go in at a higher value for the pound than was possible. During that day he raised interest rates from 8% to 14% in a day and Soros is reputed to have made a Billion betting against them
3) The 2008 financial crash, when its probable that none of the banks could meet their liabilities

Against those the Brexit outcome, even if WTO, doesn’t get in the top 10 of the last 50 years

Note the common theme of the 3 and Brexit. Leading Prime ministers thinking they can have it their way

Stay lucky

[buywell3] 14/1/2019 07:51

Technically IMO the AV. lift has now stalled

RSI and upper bolly indicates this; macd also

IMO 360p will get tested again soon

[tornado12] 13/1/2019 14:34

Whatsup32 that brings a smile to my face, but with my typing skills it’s impossible to write that twice. Advfn does some strange things sometimes, like most computer systems

[whatsup32] 13/1/2019 11:28

tornado12

Your comment was so insightful I had to read it twice.

[danielbird193] 13/1/2019 11:27

Brexit is part of the story, but surely some of the rise last week had to do with Jerome Powell's dovish comments and the supposed progress in Sino-American trade talks. Not that those have a huge amount to do with the fundamentals here, but Mr Market is fickle and sentiment is sometimes more important that sense.

For what it's worth, I think you have to look past the ongoing political upheaval and take your signals from the fundamental value on offer here (P/E ratio, dividend yield, Price to Book...). At some point Mr Market will catch up but at the moment there's a pricing anomaly which would be foolish to ignore.

[gaffer73] 13/1/2019 11:03

If everyone had accepted the vote they could have spent the last two years preparing, but no, they have spent the last two years complaining about how wrong it is and how stupid we all are.

[tornado12] 13/1/2019 10:25

I agree we could and will survive a no deal but most big industrial businesses are also spelling the bad fall out with no deal, even if not totally related it’s an easy one to throw in there and plead “ it’s out of our control”. You only have to look at the big car companies and high street woes to see the situation is in down turn and short term brexit will put us in recession. Medium term we would be ok but then you have biggest blame culture chaos ever seen in Westminster. If no deal happens I’m pretty sure Corbyn & lefties would get into power and steer us back to the 70s. Not a massive problem for me but my kids and grandkids would suffer for years and that’s the problem

[tornado12] 13/1/2019 10:25

I agree we could and will survive a no deal but most big industrial businesses are also spelling the bad fall out with no deal, even if not totally related it’s an easy one to throw in there and plead “ it’s out of our control”. You only have to look at the big car companies and high street woes to see the situation is in down turn and short term brexit will put us in recession. Medium term we would be ok but then you have biggest blame culture chaos ever seen in Westminster. If no deal happens I’m pretty sure Corbyn & lefties would get into power and steer us back to the 70s. Not a massive problem for me but my kids and grandkids would suffer for years and that’s the problem

[uppompeii] 13/1/2019 08:56

I suspect you'll have to be reasonably quick. I think much is priced in UK wise, there may an opening fall but likely followed by a recovery.