Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[buywell3] 20/12/2018 17:51

So why have other people not done it and saved themselves a lot of lolly ?

[uppompeii] 20/12/2018 16:29

It's not hard to extrapolate a footsie decline with that of Aviva, normally just multiply the percentage fall by 2 or 3 times and you won't be far wrong.

[buywell3] 20/12/2018 16:02

Some money getting thrown at AV. today ... but the market always wins

FTSE 6050 should IMO see AV. at 330p IMO



From the BARC thread re todays FTSE 6750


I said BARC 150p was coming last september

And guess what the FTSE 100 hits 6750 as stated ... time machines ?


buywell3 - 17 Sep 2017 - 11:12:09 - 123317 of 128950 ACTIVE BARCLAYS TRADERS CLUB - BARC
But the BARC chart has now commenced another leg down

The 3rd leg since 2013

A stronger pound is going to take the FTSE 100 down to 7100 next week IMO

More £ strength and more talk of the blonde bicyclist boris having a punt for pm post should take the FTSE 100 down to test 6750 support within the next month IMO

The UK property market is now dropping and a bigger fall will soon start making newspaper headlines within a month IMO

Banks won't want to see a UK property slump again , but because of their lending to BTL buyers and fuelling of increasingly ever higher folks living on the credit cliff edge ... they will be responsible for the fall , again .

FTSE 6750 should see BARC at 150p IMO

[stewart64] 20/12/2018 15:49

Andy J...I too have got tempted on BAT but aren't you concerned about the balance sheet. The intangibles appear to have gone from 10 billion to 120 billion based on what they paid to takeover the rest of Reynolds and revaluing existing brand value they held (maybe just the Reynolds bit don't know) 60 billion in deficit without brand value. ( I'm surmising please correct errors).

Where does this fit in with Aviva? well a fwd. price to earnings of 6 and a price to book of 70% looks a bargain by comparison. Internationals come mega expensive I guess and yep tobacco might be a hard Brexit hedge.

[gaffer73] 20/12/2018 09:35

Not sure about his logic but his prediction for the DOW looks pretty good.

[lord gnome] 20/12/2018 08:32

buywell3 has obviously been borrowing Diane Abbott's Calculator, Edmundshaw.

[edmundshaw] 20/12/2018 08:25

Not sure I see why the one year change in the GDP forecast for the USA by one institution of 0.7% should cause a 23% drop in the average stock values of the 30 biggest U.S. companies...

I think the stock drops this morning have more to do with the hawkish tightening by the Fed.

[buywell3] 20/12/2018 04:45

The FED used the word ''moderate'' regarding 2019 growth in the USA

But his GDP forecast has been cut from 3% in 2018 to 2.3% in 2019

This represents a 23.3% drop

I expect therefore the DJIA for example to drop 23% from its 2018 high in the next 6 months

Markets being forward computer driven things

Hence DJIA of 20,680 is my call by end of June 2019

[tradejunkie2] 19/12/2018 23:39

still waiting for my target cats

[buywell3] 19/12/2018 23:09

Today we saw a reversal in the USA DJIA of around 750 points as the FED stated its rates plans


USA Banks and Financials got creamed.


There is now no reason not to believe that the same will now happen with UK Banks and Financials

[whatsup32] 19/12/2018 20:52

Fed increased rates . May be good for Aviva ?

[buywell3] 19/12/2018 15:23

RSI can still fall below 10 yet see header

[speedsgh] 19/12/2018 14:53

Released by the Competition and Markets Authority this morning...

CMA tackles loyalty penalty charges -

The CMA has today announced a package of reforms to tackle the substantial loyalty penalty impacting millions of people.

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has investigated concerns raised by Citizens Advice in a 'super-complaint', that companies penalise existing customers by charging them higher prices than new customers.

The CMA has looked at the 5 markets highlighted by the super-complaint - cash savings, mortgages, household insurance, mobile phone contracts and broadband - and found that there is a total loyalty penalty of around £4 billion a year in these markets. It also found that vulnerable people, including the elderly and those on a low income, may be more at risk of paying the loyalty penalty.

The investigation has uncovered damaging practices by firms, which exploit unsuspecting customers. These include continual year on year stealth price rises; costly exit fees; time-consuming and difficult processes to cancel contracts or switch to new providers; and requiring customers to auto-renew or not giving sufficient warning their contract will be rolled over.

Millions of people are affected - from around 1 million in the mortgage market to nearly 12 million in the insurance market. The loyalty penalty is also likely to arise in many other markets, where people's contracts are rolled over to a higher price.

A number of recommendations are being made to regulators and government to help stop loyal consumers being ripped off. These include:

· Cracking down on harmful business practices using enforcement and regulatory powers to clamp down on harmful practices that stop people getting better deals. The CMA has today opened a consumer law enforcement investigation in the anti-virus software sector. This is a first step and further action may be taken by the CMA and regulators against other companies.

· Setting out clearly the principles businesses across all markets should follow, such as people being able to leave a contract as easily as they enter it. The CMA will also be looking at whether consumer law should also be reinforced.

· Firms should be publicly held to account for charging existing customers much more; regulators should publish the size of the loyalty penalty in key markets and for each supplier on a yearly basis.

· Targeted price caps to protect the people worst hit by the loyalty penalty, such as the vulnerable, where needed.

The CMA has also made recommendations to the FCA and Ofcom in each of the 5 markets, where work is currently underway. These include:

· Mobile: providers must stop charging pay-monthly customers the same rate once they've effectively paid off their handsets at the end of the minimum contract period. Ofcom should continue its work to challenge this practice and bring it to an end. More should also be done to make people aware of sim-only packages.

· Insurance: there is evidence of firms continually raising prices in this market. The FCA must look closely at these pricing practices in its current market study and take action to prevent people being exploited by firms. This should include considering pricing interventions.

Other recommendations have also been made in the mortgages, cash savings and broadband markets on ways that regulators can tackle the loyalty penalty and protect those being hit the hardest.

The CMA considers urgent action is required. It will be taking forward these recommendations, along with government and regulators. If sufficient progress isn't made, it may take further action.

Andrea Coscelli, Chief Executive of the Competition and Markets Authority said:

Our work has uncovered a range of problems which leave people feeling ripped off, let down and frustrated. They shouldn't have to be constantly 'on guard', spending hours searching for or negotiating a good deal, to avoid being trapped into bad value contracts or falling victim to stealth price rises.

Millions of loyal or vulnerable customers are being taken advantage of each year by firms - and end up paying much more than they should do. This must come to an end.

That's why we have today recommended a robust package of reforms. There must be a step change to protect the people being hardest hit, including targeted price caps where necessary.

Together the CMA, regulators and government must act more promptly and powerfully to hold firms to account, stop them exploiting their customers and restore people's trust in markets.

[andyj] 19/12/2018 14:49

I agree except that I marginally prefer IMB to BATS. The tobacco sector was the worst performing of 2017, a rush to bank profits after a long bull market, but now looking oversold, as is AV.

[andrewbaker] 19/12/2018 13:14

Another share being punished for no apparent good reason. I've commented on BATS and said I can't buy any more 'cos I've already got so many, but with Aviva, I can add without going top heavy: and add I will, either at a lower price, if that happens, or on a recovery, which will suggest it's being more appreciated. Either way, for someone with longer to long term money that can be held without need to access it, both Aviva and BATS are great income shares, with capital gains in the future there to be had too.

[gaffer73] 19/12/2018 10:18

That debt ain't going anywhere and will continue to rise year on year. It will get to the stage where it is meaningless. I can see a debt write off between various countries in the next 20 years.

[tfergi] 19/12/2018 08:52

No let up for Aviva

[buywell3] 19/12/2018 06:33

This is why IMO the Financial Sector is a no no ... and will be for years


Total World Debt now stands at close to $250 Trillion

or $86,000,00 , $86k , for every single person in the world

The USA , China and Japan are the three biggest debt holders


What the FED does next could upset the stack of cards


The USA is in deep doodo re its $22 Trillion debt pile


Over the 12-month period ended October 31 2018, the US gross national debt rose by $1.26 trillion, to $21.7 trillion.

Here’s who bought or shed this paper over those 12 months:

Foreign holders (official and private-sector) shed $125 billion, whittling down their stake to $6.2 trillion, or to 28.6% of the total US national debt.


US government entities (pension funds, Social Security, etc.) increased their holdings by $168 billion to 5.9 trillion. This “debt held internally” is owed the beneficiaries of those funds; it’s their money, invested in Treasury debt, and the US government owes every dime of it. They now hold 27.0% of the total US national debt.


The Federal Reserve shed $190 billion over the 12 months through October as part of its QE Unwind, reducing its pile to $2.27 trillion by the end of October, or to 10.5% of the total US national debt.


American institutions and individual investors increased their holdings by $1.41 trillion, directly and indirectly, through bond funds, pension funds, and other ways.

Banks are very large holders of Treasury debt. Together, all these entities combined owned the remainder, $7.37 trillion, or 34% of the total US debt.

[this_time_its_different] 18/12/2018 21:28

Fed raising rates is one to watch as well, will help insurers for sure. Though aviva has a bulk of its business in the UK, so any further boe rate rises will help the stock. Insurers in general have great cash flow, so the board should focus on paying as much divi as they can.

[this_time_its_different] 18/12/2018 21:25

Brexit is the real issue here and the quicker mrs may takes that finger out of her a-r-s-e the quicker we get a recovery in these stocks. The board just need to focus on raising that dividend, the higher the dividend goes the more resistance this stock will have to sell offs.

[buywell3] 18/12/2018 20:54

AV. TA and share price Chart are all showing that the share is in trouble

RSI indicates still move towards the previous low is possible on bad news

Granted recent volumes V sells have been reducing ... bollinger bands indicate possible further falls with reducing upside recovery. As Bollinger puts it, moves that touch or exceed the bands are not signals, but rather “tags”. On the face of it, a move to the upper band shows strength, while a sharp move to the lower band shows weakness.


What happens in the USA will determine the direction of FTSE 100 stocks

Hence what the FED does and says today will be key

What happens after in the UK depends upon Mrs May ... and a wait till Jan 14th is not good for market confidence ... as she will probably lose it.



I add


IMO when I see a director buy shares as the share price tanks I do not see it as a good sign

I take it as a sign of panic

[redsquirrel3] 18/12/2018 20:32

VERY STRONG BUY

[this_time_its_different] 18/12/2018 14:35

STRONG BUY