Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[t-trader] 05/12/2024 15:56

There was a spike down in AV. prior to 15:30 and a 20p spike up at DLG at the same time. Guessing a 2nd bid is imminent.

[whatsup32] 05/12/2024 15:54

261p is at the low end so probably will be positive for Av.

Question now is will it be acceptable to DLG and is there an alternative offer from interested parties.

[fenners66] 05/12/2024 15:42

I think dreaming. The whole point of buying them is to extract economies of scale. Savings by getting rid of duplication one CEO removed saves a load of staff, and a load of staff will go too.

[1robbob] 05/12/2024 15:25

I strongly suspect that Adam Winslow, before he left AV, harboured hopes of succeeding Dame Amanda when she stepped down

Dare I suggest that; if he personally was able to retain similar bonus terms as at DLG to achieve the reconstruction of the DLG business within AV and at what Dame A would demand...'At Pace'; he might be mindful to propose acceptance of a bid from AV at around the current indicated 'Offer'
...especially if it was indicated that he had a chance of succeeding Dame A!!

Or perhaps I am dreaming!!

[fenners66] 05/12/2024 13:58

cyberian - whilst I agree with your logic for the medium term , here we are in December , close to end of year
bonuses and I question whether insti traders are more interested in the short term.

So your logic is best for the overall , but a higher bid and mark to market profit just before year end , may be a higher bonus ?
Would not put it passed them.

[cyberian] 05/12/2024 13:06

rob...the reason for my comment is simply that there is a cross over of Institutions holding in both sets of shares, and there would be the possibility of more upside for Aviva share increase in value over time in my opinion not to increase the Aviva proposed offer. Institutions will also be considering the more assured dividend yield with Aviva over that of DLG. DLG shareholders would get some cash from the bid and a bundle of Aviva shares which are more likely to increase in value if the current proposed offer is accepted. My assumption maybe misplaced and happy to be corrected.

[klotzak] 05/12/2024 12:45

Looks like the city has got wind of something, that spike is significant for a no news day so far.

[1robbob] 05/12/2024 10:23

cyberian

Why is it...'NOT in the mutual interests of Institutions to willingly try to encourage Aviva to make a higher formal offer'

Surely it is in their interest to obtain as high a price for their Investment

[cwa1] 05/12/2024 07:47

*DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH RAISES AVIVA TO 'BUY' (HOLD) - PRICE TARGET 545 (535) PENCE

[pj84] 04/12/2024 21:31

Interesting view in the Telegraph suggesting that Aviva's 12% share of the home insurance market and DLG's 10% would create the dominant force in the home insurance market and whilst in the car insurance market, Aviva's 8% combined with DLG's 12% would also be significant, Admiral would still retain the no.1 spot but the significant share in both markets would raise the concern it could be anti-competitive and would attract the attention of the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA)but that the very recent political change with the CMA also now supporting growth could have been a key part in the timing of the bid.

The following is the introduction to the article.

"Drivers beware: Aviva wants to eat the competition in car insurance
The multibillion-pound swoop for Direct Line threatens to make owning a car in Britain even more unaffordable

Ben Marlow

Aviva boss Amanda Blanc must have been rubbing her hands with glee when the boss of Britain’s embattled competition watchdog stood up to speak at the prestigious Chatham House think tank last month.

Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) chief Sarah Cardell came out with a fresh pledge to support “productive and sustainable growth”. After years of griping from the City and Westminster about alleged over-anxiety concerning harm to consumers, her words were taken as the herald of a more permissive era for takeovers.

Perhaps it was a coincidence, but within days corporate Britain was being assailed by a barrage of fresh bids – now joined by a £3.3bn offer from Aviva for smaller rival Direct Line.

Cardell is astute enough to know that changing the mood music in this way was a big move. But it’s unlikely she was expecting the shift to be tested so quickly and in such a big way."

[cyberian] 04/12/2024 20:19

It is NOT in the mutual interests of Institutions to willingly try to encourage Aviva to make a higher formal offer and the latter know that. I really believe that Aviva will walk away if another bidder enters at closer to 280p or 300p. If you take a look at the Legal and General presentation this morning one can see tremendous growth potential in the key markets sectors they both operate.

I did post on LGEN post 7088 this morning about the attractions available from UK/European talent in the AI sector. This post was connected to an article in this last weekends FT front page of Life and Arts written by Ian Hogarth and illustration by Sebastian Thibault. It is well worth the time to read in full. His view is that "despite the early lead in the race to develop AI we have the ability to build a technology to rival Alphabet, Amazon or Apple. Rather than the share buy backs I would reason that investment in AI makes better sense. Again one needs to read the article and see how the UK have sold out far too soon to US enterprises and taken our talent with them. Today I see that a large software house Atlassion Corp(TEAM, the US code), recently invested in two AI initiatives and their share price has jumped well over 5% and that will increase rapidly in my opinion on the news.

[kiwi2007] 04/12/2024 20:07

The average forecast of thirteen analysts for DGL's share price over the last 3 months is 221p and that's based on forecasts of 11p this year rising to 26p in 2027. And that's assuming they reach or beat those forecasts, which is something of a tossup I'd say..

I'll continue to hold AV. but any bid over 270/275p and I'll be out.

[spud] 04/12/2024 20:05

Yup. AV should stick to their original bid or pull out. Once the price collapses, the DLG herd will come back whining & grateful. spud

[t-trader] 04/12/2024 18:56

Aviva needs to be careful they don’t overpay. Personally I thought 250 was a fair price considering DLG was languishing in the 150’s. Anything above another 20p on the offer will likely negate the benefits of the acquisition imo

In the meantime AV. Share price will hold around this level or lower until either another bid materialises or AV. walks away. Personally, not a massive fan of share dilution to make an acquisition but I trust Aviva & Amanda Blanc to make the right decision in respect of both sets of shareholders.

Question is how greedy will DLG be? If a 2nd offer of say 265-270 does materialise, will it be enough? I think if DLG rejected again, it would be in the best interest of Aviva and its shareholders to walk away.

Sooner this is sorted out, the better!

[igoe104] 04/12/2024 18:33

DLG shareholders would soon be moaning if AV don't increase there bid, and the share price collapses...

I think Av should play hardball and offer £2.60 take it or leave it offer...

[whatsup32] 04/12/2024 18:18

I read the article , it’s holders of DLG shares talking up their holding and backing their CEO.

As expected .

I suspect they will encourage DLG board to engage with Av behind closed doors .

Decision by 25th

[cfro] 04/12/2024 17:53

LG i don't think i really need to tell you what's in the article as it's all in the headline!

[lord gnome] 04/12/2024 17:47

I'm a cheapskate cfro. The article is behind the paywall. Could you give us the gist of the article, please?

[cfro] 04/12/2024 17:37

Looks like the major shareholders of DLG have decided they will all hold out for a higher bid...


Top Direct Line Shareholders hold out for a higher Aviva bid

[mountpleasant] 04/12/2024 17:26

You may be rewarded with your own money paid back to you, when it goes XD.

Has anyone worked out the "real" return on AV. shares over the last 5 years?

[anhar] 04/12/2024 10:15

The cure for that restlessness?

Think long term, think divis, and forget about the very short term price movements that occur with all shares. These pale into insignificance over time.

You may well then be rewarded but there are never any guarantees.

[whatsup32] 04/12/2024 09:45

While I don't lose sleep owning Av I do get restless .

[anhar] 04/12/2024 09:39

...It is depressing to not see a decent rise in share price

Bidder's shares normally fall.

[spud] 04/12/2024 09:30

Unless you're looking to sell, surely a low price enables a VFM accumulation point in an extremely well run company that enables restful sleep at night.Unless I'm missing something.spud