Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[ianood] 15/6/2022 23:49

cjac 39 - I know how you feel, missed out on the tech boom fearing another dotcom type scenario especially after the popularity of SPACS.FI has been out of the question for 7 years +. Bitcoin was never an option, I just don't understand it and therefore never bought in.

[cjac39] 15/6/2022 21:42

its not that complicated - issue capital allowable debt at an ok yield vs equity. part of recycling old sub debt into new and probably getting in before debt markets get worse and yields rise. credit and int rate markets are cracking and liquidity collapsing like i havent seen since 2008. thankfully its not a bubble bursting like 08 or 00 but certainly a meaningful deval and us stocks returning to earth. aside from insurers, relative to gbl eq ive been out of tech and duration for past 4 years and looked stupid all the way so i guess the sunshines eventually

[spud] 15/6/2022 21:07

I'm struggling with the methodology as well tbh. spud

[scobak] 15/6/2022 20:01

Can't see any joined up thinking there.
Av. reduce the capital base by spending cash only to effectively borrow money
at 6.875%.
And then to be convertible into shares?
What happened to keep it simple or am I missing something?

[stun12] 15/6/2022 12:57

adejuk, it's a £500m subordinated bond issue. It's Tier 1 capital, so counts towards Aviva's financial adequacy figures. Pays a 6.875% coupon and is convertible into common shares, but only at Aviva's option unless triggered by a solvency requirement breach.

[adejuk] 15/6/2022 11:48

can anyone explain that rns?
thx

[spud] 15/6/2022 11:20

Great final day and well done to the boys!

spud

[yf23_1] 15/6/2022 09:57

The sun's out, we won the test match and Aviva's up ...now what could possibly go wrong LOL!

[yf23_1] 15/6/2022 09:47

Glad I put my cap return back in yesterday at 407. Not so pleased it UT'd at 404 10 mins after.
All comes clean in the wash today though.

[eurofox] 15/6/2022 09:24

This is a good example of short squeeze and/or FOMO - or positioning for options expiry on Friday

[spcecks] 14/6/2022 19:30

Will also be watching and buying the dips.

[eurofox] 14/6/2022 17:57

More interest rate decisions imminently and quad-witching options expiry on Friday - looking for some interesting volatility.

[spcecks] 14/6/2022 12:27

Thanks 1robbob,I enjoyed reading your post.

[tuftymatt] 14/6/2022 12:25

Yeah 1robbob, thanks very much for that 👍🏻

[eurofox] 14/6/2022 12:16

Thanks 1robbob, always good to see a broad description of someone else's investing history and outlook.

[1robbob] 14/6/2022 11:52

RAMBLINGS OF A GERIATRIC INVESTOR

I have been investing since the early 1970’s – so I have seen many bull markets and as many bear markets, some worse than others.
My thoughts may be of use to others, who are ‘sufferingR17; for the first time!!!

I am unashamedly a Long Term investor and make no attempt whatsoever to micro manage my portfolio.
In my humble opinion it is very important to honestly accept what sort of investor you are and not pretend to be anything else

Over time my portfolio has moved from growth orientated to Income orientated as I now rely on my dividends to finance day-to-day living

I spend my dividend income which is tax free, apart from the Corporation Tax deducted at source thanks to Gordon Brown.

40% of the fall in the value of my Portfolio will reduce my IHT liability in the final analysis– ergo 40% of any rise goes in IHT

My over-riding view of equity markets for the last few years has been the ultimate certainty that absurdly low interests rates resulting from continued use of QE by Central Banks worldwide would have to be unwound and that this reversal would be painful.

What we now know is already being priced into UK markets – Inflation, Russia, rising interest rates, general and domestic political uncertainty.

I am looking over the ‘hill’ into the future to try to indentify the seeds for the next bull market.
It seems to me that:
1) Boris will not fight the next General Election, so there has to be a change in leadership late 2022 or early 2023 to allow the new incumbent a chance to reset the Agenda
2) Should there be a Labour Government in 2024, it looks likely that it will be ‘Light Blue’ rather than ‘Red’ of any shade
3) Inflation should be heading south from mid 2023, provided wage growth does not explode. Although undoubtedly it will peak 11%+
4) Interest rates are a blunt instrument these days in controlling the economy and the BoE is no longer ‘Independent’ (if it ever was?) – so again from mid 2023 they should start to fall
5) Mutual Funds have already created liquidity to meet expected redemptions and other Institutions have liquidity from reduced Bond portfolios earmarked for Equities

Please...feel free to disregard this post as the ramblings of a Geriatric Investor. I promise I will not be offended!!

For the record: I have retained 80% of my Aviva ‘B’ share cash, I may or may not reinvest this depending on the short term fall in the market – and in late 2020 I took out an Equity Release Mortgage at 2.85% for Lifetime; I repay the interest every quarter to avoid compounding interest and pocket the 5%pa difference

[bingoprize] 14/6/2022 11:01

If inflation is mainly down to energy costs then reducing those costs with solar/wind/hydro and batteries makes sense.

[paultightwad] 14/6/2022 08:38

Brilliant share of your perspective. It all makes sense, but something that pays a yield of 7%, which drops 10% and then a recession, where anything can happen to the divi. Smurfy would do well to consider the bigger picture, IMHO, all to play for but Unless this Luddite government do something soon with the reducing number of levers left.

[spawny100] 14/6/2022 08:38

Yeah but once you make the big decision to pay off the mortgage why would you want to remortgage to go backwards?

[spud] 14/6/2022 08:36

Why dead? Remortgage is always an equity release option.spud

[spawny100] 14/6/2022 07:54

Smurfy many are selling because economic signals are so dire and they want to protect capital so that they can pick up cheaper shares in the future. What use is a 7% return if your share goes down more than that and then cuts divi in a recession? Or some might be selling shares to buy something tangible that will increase in value like a classic car or campervan. I sold a chunk lately in order to pay off my mortgage in full but I'm now wondering if it's a sensible use of money as it's dead money I'll never see again if I do that!

[smurfy2001] 14/6/2022 07:47

A new record high for employment

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the jobless rate rose to 3.8% in the three months to April despite a new record high for employment.

There has been a rush to secure higher take-home pay as inflation has surged - striking a 40-year high in April following an unprecedented hike in the energy price cap

[paultightwad] 14/6/2022 06:16

And the relevance of your rate of return?

[smurfy2001] 13/6/2022 16:24

Well my portfolio is currently earning me almost 7% on book. No point in selling as instant savings are only paying 1.5% at most.