Avacta Share Discussion Threads

[bumpa33] 26/2/2019 10:54

Big buying again today, as already noted. Well bid everywhere, FCAP not making anything on the offer now.

[1i1i1i] 26/2/2019 10:52

Huge, huge buying, has another multi million pound deal been leaked?

[cf456] 26/2/2019 10:46

And more delayed buys popping up.

100k @ 9:43 and 150k @ 10:15.

An insti loading up perhaps.

The book a lot stronger now.

[cf456] 26/2/2019 09:44

A 200k delayed buy there from 9:26.

Someone has clearly been offloading to cause the pullback, but someone else is certainly keen to buy around this level.

Looks ready to start moving back up from here.

[cf456] 26/2/2019 09:23

Someone building a stake around this level judging by the trades.

Recent 25k block purchases. And this morning a few 24k block purchases.

[bumpa33] 25/2/2019 14:57

Yep, curious that late flurry - as Friday afternoon not normally the most active as we head into a weekend.

[cf456] 25/2/2019 14:43

Another flurry of activity at 4:15pm like there was on Friday would be interesting.

[bumpa33] 25/2/2019 14:23

FCAP still have a bit of stock, as mentioned earlier. Everyone else bidding.

[cf456] 25/2/2019 14:20

Plenty of interested buyers.

MMs must have some stock at the moment. If the buying keeps up at this rate then with any luck that stock will run out and the price will start trending up again.

[1i1i1i] 25/2/2019 14:12

100% buying but no movement.......mmmm?

[cf456] 25/2/2019 09:01

Yes, there do seem to be a few interested buyers at the current level judging by the recent trades.

[bumpa33] 25/2/2019 08:57

steady buying this morning, still a bit of stock available at 41 but well bid at 40.6 in size and in several places...

[cf456] 23/2/2019 13:21

Yes, there are a number of catalysts with the potential to increase shareholder value substantially this year.

Some will wait until after the news is released of course, but better to be in beforehand imo. Otherwise you find yourself forced to pay a much higher price for whatever limited stock is available.

Dips like the current one present the opportunity to build up your position on the quiet if you believe in the longer term story. More sensible to do that than to chase the inevitable spike higher when news lands.

[bumpa33] 23/2/2019 12:11

Cf456 - a few more “LG Chem” type deals and this could be one of the standout stocks for 2019. Usual caveats apply of course. Should be fun watching this one unfold :)

[cf456] 23/2/2019 09:31

Bumpa33 - yes, it's definitely a different proposition to the usual and one where the potential upside is very significant indeed. And excitingly a lot of that is in the near term.

"Significant milestones should be achieved in the near future that would support considerable valuation uplift and bring Avacta inline with comparators."

The CEO is keen to differentiate the company from typical bio/pharma companies:

"Affimer is a platform technology capable of generating a continuous pipeline of products. Unlike classic biotech companies Avacta has downside protection from its reagents business which generates recurring revenue."



It's a great risk:reward play and the analysts know it with finnCap's latest 125p target showing the way. Multiples of the current share price.



The company has made significant strides in recent months with the LG Chem deal showing the kind of money big pharma is prepared to commit to the tech. Multiple similar deals are expected in the months ahead and understandably the company is very bullish with regards its future:

"I look forward to updating the market on progress during 2019 which I expect to be a year of very significant progress for the Company."

[bumpa33] 23/2/2019 09:00

cf456 - The LG Chem deal got me interested in this, but what made me go for it was my understanding that this isn't your standard junior biotech/pharma, run by tech heads, relying on the hopes of one or a few new drugs, whilst burning through copious amounts of cash! Normally i don't go near the sector but the potential rewards in relation to risk just seem too good.

[cf456] 23/2/2019 08:53

Bumpa33 - agreed, Avacta have a platform technology. The company isn't reliant on a single drug, yet has the huge upside potential from Affimers being used in many different areas.

"One has to be careful not to start getting hyperbolic. Because what we have is a platform technology which means we are not a single asset drug company. There isn't one drug that we are developing. We have the ability to produce a very large pipeline of different Affimers because we have a platform to generate them from. So the potential value is genuinely enormous." - from 7:55

[cf456] 23/2/2019 08:43

The interview on LSE is well worth watching all the way through with regards the CEOs take on risk and reward. He emphasises the huge potential from the therapeutic side, but also the aim to mitigate the risk in that area by building a stable, revenue generating business on the reagent side.

"So there's significant value in the research side, a huge value in the therapeutic side but some good downside risk protection through the revenue generating part of the business." - from 9:27

He covers this again in the elevator pitch - from 16:21

"We've got a very exciting, disruptive technology which we absolutely know works."

"So now what you have to think about is the huge potential and potential for share price increase driven by commercial and clinical success on the therapeutic side."

"There is huge potential on the therapeutic side but of course there is risk."

"There is a huge excitement and value potential on the therapeutics, but we have real downside risk reduction by building a revenue generating business which can easily be worth multiples of what the current market cap is with no regulatory hurdles, very little risk because the technology works."

"There's real excitement over the next couple of years as we enter the clinic, the sort of valuation uplift you get when you're in the clinic, and very little downside risk because of the revenue generation."

[bumpa33] 23/2/2019 08:38

whilst not exactly being 'low risk' (then again, is anything low risk in this mkt/these times?!) isn't the beauty of AVCT that Affimers are a drug delivery system, not a single drug per se?

[lantanatony] 23/2/2019 08:31

Spot on Drewster!

[the drewster] 23/2/2019 07:15

There is nothing low risk in a pre clinical biotech company.

The rewards are however, very difficult to put a ceiling on.

[1i1i1i] 22/2/2019 23:52

All looking good 74tom, probably the most high reward low risk share currently on the market.

[74tom] 22/2/2019 18:51

Yes a very interesting last couple of hours today, culminating in 5 block trades totalling 400k at 41p in the last 7 mins... impossible to say if they are buys or sells, but I was quoted 40.6p to sell right before close, so more likely buys. Intrigued to see where we open on Monday!

[cf456] 22/2/2019 18:41

Thanks for the notes on the presentations last week Nobbygnome. Sounds like there could be activity in the near term from what you say.

---

"The bottom line is that the were strong hints more deals are coming in the short term so I won't be selling!"

"In my one to one discussions AZ were mentioned a few times so I would hazard a guess they could be a future partner....."