Avacta Share Discussion Threads

[tomboyb] 19/12/2018 16:12

Aviva were selling down to 3.92% -

[bumpa33] 19/12/2018 16:05

Be interesting to see from whom they’ve taken that stock....

[tomboyb] 19/12/2018 16:01

30p plus here -

[cf456] 19/12/2018 15:35

RNS just out

[cf456] 19/12/2018 14:35

"The market capitalisation of those comparable companies, around $300 or $400 million dollars gives you a good benchmark of where Avacta could be in 2 to 3 years time."

"This means that for an investor that is already confident about the strong scientific rationale behind the Affimer technology and the pre-clinical evidence that has been produced so far, this could be a very attractive entry point because Avacta currently
has a market cap around $30 / $35 million dollars so the upside is clearly significant."



From 4:51

[cf456] 19/12/2018 14:15

FinnCap's recent note highlights the upside on offer from the current price. Further licencing activity is likely and provides a catalyst to drive the price higher.

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"With a rich pipeline of interest in the reagent portfolio and ongoing discussions with other pharma companies, we expect further licensing activity. We estimate the risk-adjusted NPV of this deal, based only on the potential milestones to be worth 12-17p. We retain a target price of 120p."

"Avacta has a market cap of £26m and an EV of £21m. The most relevant comparator companies are Pieris and Molecular Partners, which are valued at £141m and £284m, respectively.

Whilst both of these companies' technology platforms are more advanced than Avacta's (in human clinical trials), Pieris having products in Phase I trials and having demonstrated safety in humans, the potential uplift for Avacta is clearly very significant as it meets this milestone in the next two years."

"With probably close to 50 companies that have or are undertaking evaluations we expect further licence deals to be announced in 2018 and onwards, all of which should generate incremental value."

"We retain a target EV of £125m, which implies a share price of 120p. The risk-reward profile at this level is materially skewed to the upside in our opinion."

[bumpa33] 19/12/2018 09:56

Looks like yesterday the buyer bit at 27.5...

[hampton58] 19/12/2018 09:16

AgreeWatch the RNS Further deals of similar size is most likely going to be announced in Q1 and will make current share price look significant undervaluedLook how much Lombard odier have increased their holding by .

[cf456] 19/12/2018 08:37

Plenty more potential deals to come. And if they're anything like the size of the recent one then the sky is the limit.

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"The substantial number of technology evaluations of Affimer reagents that we have established is now showing signs of bearing fruit. We expect to be able to report on reagents licensing deals in a number of application areas in the coming financial year that will validate the licensing business model which we are pursuing, and in turn, will underpin future royalty revenue streams."

[the drewster] 19/12/2018 08:34

I doubt anything will happen quickly as the market just clearly don't believe the numbers on the LG deal... more deals, more scientific validation, and more partnerships will ultimately transform the share price - hard to know just how high it could go.

[74tom] 19/12/2018 08:25

Yep definitely looking more positive today, just need another TR-1 to confirm the latest movements as you say, but either way another 1.15m transferred between instis/2.3m sold, combined with around 400k of buys takes us further toward the overhang bejng cleated :)

[hampton58] 19/12/2018 07:06

Volume yesterday suggest seller is done and more buying would move the price .Watch out for the RNS regarding declared holdings or the absence of such .

[danatkins] 18/12/2018 17:58

That was no PI lol

[danatkins] 18/12/2018 17:43

Wow big seller came in around midday. Hope that's the last for them

[lantanatony] 18/12/2018 13:12

Untill Avacta come out of the woods regarding the detail of the LG deal the share price will remain under pressure IMO.
So come on Avacta it's Xmas!

[bumpa33] 18/12/2018 12:13

Well, 27 on the offer now, let’s see if that buyer at this level is still around.

[escapetohome] 18/12/2018 09:00

Avacta are starting to perform and deliver to a plan.

Excellent.

Buy.

[74tom] 18/12/2018 08:57

Agree, it is crazy. The drip drip of PI’s selling keeps lowering the price. But the fact is the big placing overhang and terrible markets killed the momentum and dissuaded many from investing or holding.

Without the overhang, where would the share price be today? I’d say mid 40’s at least...obviously it’s pointless speculation. I’m happy to hold and wait for Dr Saro to deliver some exciting news!

[1i1i1i] 18/12/2018 08:32

The market cap is just plain ridiculous here, will definitely be adding in the new year.

[74tom] 17/12/2018 20:15

The below presentation from October is succinct and it’s impressive that Avacta have already ticked off the first two ‘near term news flow’ items.

hxxps://www.avacta.com/sites/life_sciences/files/resource/AVACTA%20TPI%20October%201%202018.pdf

• Therapeutics partnering/license deal(s)

• High profile Chief Medical Officer appointment.

• Licensing/supply deals with research/diagnostics companies.

• Additional therapeutics research collaborations.

• Potential for Moderna to take Affimer candidate(s) into clinical development.

• Pre-clinical development milestones for collaborative programmes.

• Candidate selection for anti-PD-L1/LAG-3 bispecific Affimer clinical development.

• Completion of IND enabling studies for anti-PD-L1/LAG-3 bispecific.

———;——̵2;—

So the potential for a lot more to come in the near term, just need to hold and wait for the share price to respond accordingly. Oh and yes, confirmation of the up front payment value would definitely help!

[patientcapital] 17/12/2018 18:41

And an up front payment received.

[lantanatony] 17/12/2018 18:08

Perhaps Avacta should get a Commercial Director for Xmas!

[bumpa33] 17/12/2018 16:20

that thought crossed my mind, and a few others too.

[the drewster] 17/12/2018 15:47

When a company signs a deal worth >6 times the market cap, the market is left wondering why the buyer didn't just buy the company.

[the stigologist] 17/12/2018 13:15

"general surprise at the numbers mentioned in the RNS"

yes the whole market smelt it