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AUL Aurelian

10.125
0.00 (0.00%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Aurelian LSE:AUL London Ordinary Share GB00B15S8C31 ORD 5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 10.125 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Aurelian Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

Showing 4926 to 4949 of 5050 messages
Chat Pages: 202  201  200  199  198  197  196  195  194  193  192  191  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
14/11/2012
13:33
Not sure if that is a new purchase though. It is a new declaration because now they are in a merger situation everyone with a holding over 1% has to declare when changing it (like we have seen here with the strategic review).

Just my opinion.

greenroom78
14/11/2012
13:29
New inst over on SLE. 19m shares if I read correct.
johncraven
14/11/2012
12:27
I shall be taking the shares and have topped up in AUL.
rafboy
14/11/2012
12:12
Ive now got 1.5million shares in AUL and accepting the merger due to the current SLE valuation/assets etc. AUL now valued at over 11p with merger. So still no reduction in the AUL - SLE share price gap.
johncraven
14/11/2012
11:20
John I am only looking at the bid now on SLE as I have decided to take the shares. Am I being blinkered?
hulltiger
14/11/2012
10:50
Well the merger price is 10.75p at the moment, and SLE is on the rise so this is likely to increase from here. Still plenty of liquidity and nothing to stop AUL from rising into the 20's on a good run on SLE.
johncraven
14/11/2012
10:43
I think the BB rumours left not enough time to finish the "silent" prearranged deals. AUL came out with RNS and the deals at around 9p had to be finished. Now it is time to go up
odvod
14/11/2012
10:38
As SLE are starting to move upwards AUL becomes an even bigger steal.
johncraven
14/11/2012
10:31
Hopefully it will be reflected in the fracking share price as well!

Isn't shale a clay/silt/mud sedimentary type strata rather than hard rock? I'm not a geologist but understood that fracking shale is needed to essentially force the 'tight' gas out under pressure due to a lack of permeability in the sediment layers?

I might be wrong though?

greenroom78
14/11/2012
09:19
Thanks New Tech,lets hope the combined group will be the best fracking company
in Europe extracting large amounts of tight gas from hard rocks!!

lammergeier
14/11/2012
09:13
I have added details of AUL's assets to Part 12 at the bottom of my SLE thread, including planned activity on four AUL licenses for 2013 detailed by SLE in a presentation by them on 12/10/2012. Please feel free to join this thread, and add any comments and information:
new tech
13/11/2012
23:48
Shale gas exploitation is already present and has had impressive success in the US and has already influenced the world energy market, which can also be felt in Europe. The technology is available and is being constantly improved but even at its current level it is enough to satisfy strict European requirements and provide for a safe, environmentally friendly and profitable exploitation. Let us not forget that Europe is going through a crisis, half of its energy resources are imported and demand is growing. Using our own resources can prove economically and environmentally beneficial, as shale gas can be cheaper, more ecological than coal and much safer than nuclear energy.
lammergeier
13/11/2012
23:45
Just before I sleep - that's the whole point - its a disaster unless it gets some focus.But others need to decide - I'm out of here.gla.
ohisay
13/11/2012
23:40
Guys a good snapshot on SLE
dahmmy
13/11/2012
22:31
Greenroom .... my pleasure.
imabastard
13/11/2012
22:29
AFF Greenroom - no out at 57.5p for my 42p trade.
I suppose I'm a bit tarty - I've said before investing for me is like chopping wood.
If only it could all have happened 2 years ago we'd all be 100p+ rich.
Great asset - all down to the inscrutable Chinese agenda.
So gl and thx for your posts.

ohisay
13/11/2012
22:26
Thanks Ima (you really aren't!).

I have done a little reading about the SLE assets and my only fear about what you describe is that it ends up like Nighthawk's Jolly Ranch. Loads of potential and loads of cheap wells but little in the way of sustained flowrates. I can see the benefit of making Poland work because imported gas prices are too high in that region (I know Ukraine is 3x the Henry Hub price and 4x the Russian price), my only fear is that we'll be chucking a very small amount of cash into a very big hole to make it work.

I'll do some more reading though, thanks for the help.

greenroom78
13/11/2012
22:17
Greenroom .... I know you asked a question about the merits of SLE. I can only write from an SLE shareholder perspective.

The gas potential is huge .... Siciny .... asset value (gas value) based on 10%/20% extraction as cited by John Buggenhagen the Exploration Director with 450 BCF per square mile and over 1,000 square miles (without any AUL acreage) and based on current prices paid for gas in Poland .... anything from £60 Billion to £240 Billion. Siciny due to test this quarter ... Talisman not involved in Siciny at all. Poland want gas, politically, above all else .... they'll make it work.

.... but better than that in relation to how swiftly to monetise an asset.

The oil (without any acreage from AUL) 20 well programme, first well they hit oil, second well spudded, awaiting results .... believed to be a 'Mississipian' type oil play (Google it) .... low cost .... less than £1 Million drill cost per well .... with their seismics, they quote an 80% success rate with every drill .... potential billions of barrels if the 'Miss' type is proven. Cash from oil produced will be immediate .... and contracts already in place for all oil they can produce .... no surprise as Poland is a large nett importer of oil.

This is all very lovely sounding .... but until they come up with the estimated oil in place and flow rates .... "sounding" it will remain .... but news is due within weeks .... now if they come up with some healthy numbers .... the SLE price could easily rise swiftly to 25p + .... depends on the numbers .... but if there will be 20 wells producing 500 - 1500 Bopd and Billions of barrels OIIP .... it easy to see how the price could escalate dramatically.

If the SLE price rose to 25p before Christmas, as an example, the AUL deal per share would be worth 32.5p .... and so on.

Far from guaranteed .... nothing ever is .... but it would certainly look 'sweeter' for all.

This was just to give you a view from the other side of the potential merger.

imabastard
13/11/2012
22:17
Yep, I was in near the bottom (just under 9p and just above cash levels) and had the same approach as you good risk/reward. I also agree regarding shale in Europe, leave it to the big boys and concentrate efforts (and cash) on the more conventional targets. That Oilbarrel article refers to a review of SLE assets, so hopefully they come to the right conclusions.

Thanks Re: AFF, you holding?

greenroom78
13/11/2012
22:07
Greenroom - thanks.
Agree with all that.
So general question - does the market yet know how to value shale gas.?
I've been around the oil gas investing fraternity and researching since 2004 and I'm happy to confess I don't know - don't know being the most part for understanding how other O/G investors might see it amongst other things.
And that's the key as per that wonderful Bloomberg article back in Feb.
The only reason I got into AUL was it was a low risk play - I think it was the same for you.But long term on a simple 80/20 rule Euro gas is an absolute investors no go.For the capex and the netback its a very poor risk/reward.
So my question is which poor sap of a company is going to take these nominal gas assets off SLE.??
Oh and I nearly forgot - one of the bizarre consequence of shale gas success in the US is that it has made coal worldwide exceptionally cheap - so much so that Merkel for example (post Nuclear) is currently using coal as much as gas in power stations.
Strange times.
rgds and gl with AFF.

ohisay
13/11/2012
21:27
ohisay - I hate to say it but your first post is about as close to reality as you can get IMO. The move of SLE downwards points to the market only adding in a little more than cash value. For whatever reason the market is not keen on Shale plays and as far as polish plays go the same can be said for the majors. I feel if Siekierki (and Polish shale in general) was more appealing we'd have seen a better (or counter) offer. If combined cash is not much higher than what Aurelian are bringing to the table then I'd rather see them focus it on conventional plays that are closer can unlock value quickly. Like you I can see more cash calls in 12-18 months time and that needs to happen at much higher share prices.

A farm out of the non conventional assets has to be the way forward. The one plus point I am holding on to is that SLE do have a history of successful farm outs and are carried on a few drills next year.

greenroom78
13/11/2012
21:04
Hope isn't going to make you money though.
I'd be slightly encouraged if SLE were going to get their fingers out and start smelling the coffee re the oilbarrel article below.
I'd want to see this before investing hard earned.Whatever you might say about AUL they looked after their cash from mid year.



"It's fair to say that not all of these will remain on the books going forward, with San Leon planning a portfolio review. This review will prioritise key projects by their near-term production potential – this is a key objective for the company as the market is increasingly unforgiving of exploration-only vehicles"

ohisay
13/11/2012
19:48
Greenrooms can agree with all your above post aswell. Lets hope as management have expressed the combined partnership will realise much more value for shareholders with both stocks trading very cheap at present and plenty of possible reward on investment.
johncraven
13/11/2012
18:09
I wasn't going to post anything here as I exited at 10.25p yesterday at a small profit.I bought all the way down from 13.7p to 7.4p.But as Greenroom looks like he's the only one thinking on here I'll add a comment or two
I too had a risked nav of around 20p - cash 8p /Siek 6/7p/ rest 5p.It was a reasonable punt.
Its sad for AUL that effectively they only had only one offer that valued their European gas assets at such a small EV but that's a valuation fact - they took 9 months over it after all.They wanted (as announced in Feb) a big partner to spend several 100m$ capex to fully develop that nominal Siek CPR.See that Finncap note from February!
What does that say about how the market might value SLE's European gas assets - I'm not surprised they were weaker first thing yesterday.
I think the landscape has changed for shale in Poland since SLE /AUL were investors favorites last year - country reserves reduced - majors exiting( in all likelihood Talisman too as they exit non core assets).3legs has only just been trading above cash too - a tad better now they may have had a discovery.But in general decent valuable conventional /non conv. gas discoveries across mainland Europe have been few and far between these last few years
So I've no wish to be in SLE for its Euro gas assets.
The rest yes - I'd happily be in for Ireland /Morocco etc.But their funding model is anachronistic IMV - it stopped being rel easy for Aim co's to get hold of cash 18mths/2 years ago.
They have this huge disparate bunch of assets with not much cash - I just don't think they can possibly have the proper focus to use that AUL cash well over the next year.Their model is a recipe for disappointment unless they get very lucky.
Cash in fact would be better spent outside European gas IMV unless they have a compelling target.
I wish all SLE holders well but even at 8p its too high for me.I can see more dilutive placings/larger then ideal farmouts over the next 18 months.
If you want Euro gas or UK gas look at EDR 10m market cap 3m cash AND a catalyst for some share price growth before the end of the year - if you look.
Oh and yes IF you want to be in SLE then AUL would be a buy tommorow not SLE.

ohisay
Chat Pages: 202  201  200  199  198  197  196  195  194  193  192  191  Older

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