Aurelian Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[greenroom78] 13/11/2012 18:02

I can agree with all of those points. But my point still stands that you cannot lump everybody in the same boat regarding selling and that there will be people that need and want to sell (for whatever reason).

The two key things in your points are 'IF' and whether you are in long term or not, but I agree that if you are in long term and believe in the combined assets (or the SLE share price) then you'd be nuts to sell at these prices.

Nice close on SLE.

[johncraven] 13/11/2012 17:52

Ok we will have to agree to disagree agreeably!

To sell AUL is NUTS from my point of view due to the:

(1) Discount to SLE (Quite substantial)
(2) No value reaslised from Merger.
(3) Big fall from pre-merger price of 9.5p on SLE
(4) Your not tied up in AUL as its still a liquid stock ,and a rise on SLE will cause AUL to rise substantially.
(5) If SLE rise from here your not only selling at a discount to the actual price (now) the price will go the complete oposite direction.

In Summary forced sellers cant help it but I would of thourght they would be out by now.

[greenroom78] 13/11/2012 16:40

JC - Sorry but I disagree. There are plenty of reasons that people sell for. To get the SLE price you have to wait until early next year and you have no guarantee it will be 8p then (it might be double that it might be less, who knows?).

IMO those selling are the ones that had hoped for a better deal than the one on offer. I too have considered it. I bought just under 9p with a target of 15-20p in a 3-6 month period based on a farm out of Siekierki or better still a takeover for cash (or paper from a major). I did not expect a slightly better than cash offer from another junior to get the approval of the IIs and personally I'm not impressed by it. My guess is management are recommending it because they already have their futures guaranteed.

I cannot deny that by selling sub 10p you would be giving them away cheaper than current value but it is clear from my above statement why they will trade at a discount. SLE share price is not fixed and you have no guarantees of getting 10.5p for each AUL share when it closes as SLE can still fall. I would expect this discount to reduce as the merger date gets closer.

This is added risk whether you like it or not.

Buying SLE is daft though, because if you want to buy into SLE today with a view to holding long term (and you believe the deal will go ahead) you may as well buy AUL and take advantage of thee discount.

IMO you are wrong for condemning people who want or need to sell, however those thinking of owning a combined company long term should be buying AUL and not SLE while this discount is this wide (IMO).

[johncraven] 13/11/2012 16:40

No. Of Shares Factor Equiv Shares Price Value
100,000.00 1.30 130,000.00 0.0829 £10,777.00 SLE
100,000.00 1.00 100,000.00 0.0975 £9,750.00 AUL
100,000.00 1.30 130,000.00 0.0750 £9,750.00 SLE

So based on closing prices SLE would have to fall below 7.5 pence per share to make any reason to sell AUL at 9.75pence per share. Let alone the strong possibility of SLE rising quickly from here.

AND a strong close on SLE AT 8.29pence in auction.

[johncraven] 13/11/2012 16:29

No. Of Shares Factor Equiv Shares Price Value
100,000.00 1.30 130,000.00 0.0811 £10,543.00 SLE
100,000.00 1.00 100,000.00 0.0960 £9,600.00 AUL

100,000.00 1.30 130,000.00 0.0738 £9,594.00 SLE

Greenrooms its crazy beyond measure. The equivernt selling price for selling youR AUL shares at 9.6 pence is 0.0738 pence per share on SLE.

And then TO TOP IT OFF if you do want to buy back have to get in under the 7.38p on SLE.

Not to mention the funding issues are raised from SLE.

[greenroom78] 13/11/2012 16:01

No. not crazy selling AUL. If you believe SLE will be routed at 8p then maybe you can find something that will return better than 8% (the discount) in that time (early next year). The silly thing is buying SLE if you plan to hold long term as buying AUL gives you a cheap way in. Also worth considering that a lot of people would've bought on credit (T20s, spreadbets etc) a lot of these will have settlement dates before a deal is done, these people might also be selling.

[johncraven] 13/11/2012 16:00

Aurelian's Quest Ends with San Leon Deal
Natural Gas Europe
12th November 2012 7:02pm





Aurelian Oil & Gas announced that it has entered into a merger with San Leon Energy, bring together two leading player in the European unconventional gas sector.

San Leon will pay about 61.6 million pounds ($98 million) in stock for Aurelian, a 13 percent premium to last week's closing price. Aurelian shareholders will hold 34 percent of the enlarged company and San Leon shareholders will hold 66 percent post-closing.

Stating that it likely required additional technical and financial resources to unlock the its full potential, Aurelian, which is active in Poland, Romania and Slovakia, had announced last February that it had commenced exploring "strategic options" with the possibility of a sale or merger among the options under consideration.

Aurelian key asset is the Siekierki tight gas play in Poland, with estimated total contingent resources at 422 billion cubic feet, with gas-initially-in-place of 1,992 billion cubic feet. However, Siekierki has experienced technical challenges and lower than expected flow rates have set back Aurelian's unconventional programme.

Rowen Bainbridge, Chief Executive of Aurelian stated: "The proposed merger between Aurelian and San Leon creates a leading upstream position in Poland with complementary play types, capabilities and relationships covering both conventional and un-conventional resources."

"A merger with Aurelian makes perfect sense for the shareholders of both companies. The combination of cash resources and the Polish asset base alone creates an obvious and exciting opportunity to realise substantial growth," Oisin Fanning, San Leon's Executive Chairman of San Leon.

"The combined entity offers shareholders material conventional and unconventional plays in stable and highly import-dependent countries."

San Leon said that it had received the support of key Aurelian shareholders including Kulczyk Investments S.A.,Toscafund Asset Management LLP and Lord Sainsbury representing approximately a 47 per cent of Aurelian shares.

The combined entity will be that creates the largest foreign holder of unconventional gas concessions in Poland.

[johncraven] 13/11/2012 15:52

If the deal goes through soon buying AUL will see a nice profit even if SLE doesnt even rise past 8p. Crazy anyone selling AUL.

[rafboy] 13/11/2012 15:44

It must be the case that this deal is a good one for somebody. Who though? The PI or the big boys or even both.

[naithani] 13/11/2012 15:32

Tosca increasing their stake, interesting.....they want a bigger pie of SLE.

[greenroom78] 13/11/2012 14:02

I think a 'dump' just occurred when the bid ticked down to 9p and was almost cleared on L2. It has rebuilt quickly though and since the dump the offer has had several orders removed. L2 looking better than it has for most of the day IMO. Maybe whoever was selling this morning has cleared out.

NAI

[odvod] 13/11/2012 13:56

COS of the merger is 100 %. No one is buying (for) votes. Old shareholders are dumping IMHO

[hulltiger] 13/11/2012 13:50

John I would imagine they will have to wait for the vote but I would think that it will be asap as the idea of bringing two companys together is to cut cost among other things, so the first saving would be a delisting for AUL. If like me and decide to take the SLE shares there does not appear to be any reason to keep tabs on the AUL share price

[johncraven] 13/11/2012 11:43

Is there a date set for the transaction over from Aurelian Shares to SLE shares? Has it been finalised or still waiting for majority vote??

[odvod] 13/11/2012 10:32

I wonder what the 50 mio are doing right now. Sitting in the bank or are in the party mode?

[pug151] 13/11/2012 10:27

yes - surely Aul woukld have thought carefully about near term price movements in Sle prior to the vote date

[johncraven] 13/11/2012 10:11

Certainly some interest on the buy side on level 2 on SLE!!!! Probably a more interesting share to watch now than Aurelian. (-:

[greenroom78] 13/11/2012 09:50

Agreed. I would think the drop in the wider markets and PoO didn't help first thing. The main question for me is can they unlock the potential in the unconventional targets they have as the markets appear to value Shale prospects lower than conventional prospects. Thankfully SLE have some decent conventional ones as well.

[johncraven] 13/11/2012 09:43

Greenroom78 ok still more insentive to buy AUL but as SLE are so undervalued with their asset base there is no reason why SLE should not start rising esp with AUL'S cash now. + More news flow.

Hultiger - exactly.

[hulltiger] 13/11/2012 09:32

John I have just multiplied the shares I own times l.3 then that ammount at the bid on SLE is may current value.. and wait until January in the hope they increase in value. I am lucky because I came in around 8p.

[greenroom78] 13/11/2012 09:22

And I didn't disagree with you. What you were actually saying was no point in selling AUL which I did disagree with as people may have their reasons for selling (justified when you look at today's price), my argument is slightly different to yours and that is if you believe the deal will happen buy AUL as a cheap way into SLE.

[johncraven] 13/11/2012 09:19

Greenrooms not being funny but I was saying that all day yesterday. However AUL is getting screwed and worth far far more than 10.4 bid.

[greenroom78] 13/11/2012 09:14

There is currently 2m shares on the SLE bid at 8p, even if we say that is what the market wants to value the deal at then AUL is worth 10.4p (bid), the actual bid is a bit higher than that so you could argue nearer 10.5p at the minute. Current Bid is 9.6p so a slightly bigger discount than yesterday.

Those looking to buy SLE at 8p would be better off buying AUL under 10p if they think the deal will go through.

NAI.

[greenroom78] 13/11/2012 08:59

Hope you're right. We didn't see the buying start until well after 9am yesterday. My concern is that the market will value AUL at cash when lumping it in with SLE (to an extent we have already seen that with SLE losing 15-20%). Looking at the combined presentation there are several assets they have that are free carried (Morocco especially which is conventional and potential very exciting) and several more (Siekierki included) expecting to farm out in the next few months.