Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/11/2017 20:42

#waterloo01, at 1st glance the bottom line numbers are not dynamite for sure, but I've tried to extract the real progress YTD in my post 9772..

Looking forward:

PRT : During the quarter, the study to demonstrate the feasibility of increasing mining and processing capacity beyond the current 9.5 Mtpa, to a maximum of 15.0 Mtpa at Proyecto Riotinto was finalised. The study has concluded the expansion is technically and financially robust. The Board is encouraged by these results and will provide further details on the expansion over the coming weeks.

Touro : The technical report is progressing ahead of schedule with all efforts now concentrated on getting the report completed and ready for release during Q4 2017. The technical report is confirmed to be at a pre-feasibility level of detail and in compliance with NI 43-101 guidelines.

Some more good news to come in during November/December..

[waterloo01] 16/11/2017 20:32

Been away so not properly read the release, but one does wonder what they would have looked like if Astor wasn't a factor? They seem to keep loading things forward, so to speak. Does the expansion also play a role here in that it will make the ASIC cost reduce even further with the upgrade in volumes?

There is a lot to like in here, but on 1st glance I am left wondering why they are making a good picture look slightly muddy?

[vanhelsingjr] 16/11/2017 18:26

Q3 vs Q2
5% more tons processed, 10% better grade fed, 10% higher grade concentrate produced, 2% better recovery, 20% more copper produced and, surprisingly, the costs in euros increase by 4%. Difficult to beleive. They must explain: commercial costs, virtual overburden and sudden increase in operating costs.

[acamas] 16/11/2017 18:12

llb,

Awfully glad I decided to buy VCP instead of ATYM. ATYM's results not to Markets liking imo

I know mining shares and charts do not always run hand in hand but this share is making lower highs which normally is a bearish sign

[vanhelsingjr] 16/11/2017 18:11

some interesting figures
tons sold
stock Q2+ Q3 production - Q3 stock = 40545 t cucon 8693 t payable copper
Sales 35.734.000 euros or 41.951.700 usd, income per ton payable copper 2,19 usd/lb
Market Cu Q3 2,88 lost on off-takes and commercial expenses 0,69.
Interesting, explaining everything.
Ore and overburden moved according to Q3 financial information and Q3 operations information
Q3 2,7 MM3 7,6 Mt average density 2,81
Q2 2,8 MM3 6,9 Mt average density 2,46
The Q2 average density is wrong influencing the figure for overburden and they are explaining the cost deviation on waste capitalization criteria.
They need a better controller.
After 45 days cooking the numbers, the final pie is still underdone.

[lanty33] 16/11/2017 15:42

One expression m8.....LOL. Share price down...great RNS..LOL

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/11/2017 14:25

2017 progress YTD:

Social security debt EUR16.9M - flattened
Transamine $14M debt - flattened
Working capital deficit reduced from EUR25M to EUR13M (-EUR12M)
Working capital deficit reduced from EUR25M to Zero in Q4 2017 now possible
Enabling works for 9.5 / 15.0MTPA to Power/Water/Tailings/Flotation plant side - done
EUR 7.7M of inventory in stock going into Q4
EUR 8.6M grant still pending subject to demonstrated milestones hit

2017 YTD debt reduction cEUR 43M + 7M stock value = EUR 50M real term gains, that's a stunning turn around in my book from a loss maker in 2016, and demonstrates what we can earn/profit a year when all the debts are gone, and still with Q4, the strongest quarters results to come in..

From H1 - the Company has also incurred interest costs for the Transamine prepayment and the Social Security debt.

Today's figures and accounting tools are masking the real progress the company has made CuFeS2 and well you know it.. paying down anything that is carrying an interest penalty as soon as possible are a priority and the right foundations to build the company on..

2018 Pay off Astor
2019 Flatten the trade payable's
2020 Pay for the PRT expansion from Cash...

[edit] lanty33, clearly you are not very good at extracting the progress information from RNS's that isn't about the bottom line profit..!, some people can, which is why we will see the days close erasing earlier losses..

[lanty33] 16/11/2017 13:43

`cash cow` LOL not for us pi`s m8!

ATB l33

[superbobtaylor] 16/11/2017 13:43

@VISH65

Your numbers are not even close to correct. You choose to include Payables but omit Receivables. You also decided to omit Cash and cash equivalents. You are double counting some costs by including both Working capital and Payables.

@Langostino

"The price of copper, the cost at which it is dug up and the price for which it is sold is marginal at best, and not worth fretting about."

What a load of nonsense. You know full well these figures relate to the Q2 price of copper. The companies profit margin at current Cu price is nearly double.

@CuFeS2

Something sensible to debate. You know as well as I do that they are making sure that there is nothing to pay Astor in this FY. E.g. Paying up Transamine early. Next year the case will be heard and we will finally have a conclusion. Until we know what that is no one knows. What I do know is that AL has proved himself very adept at securing excellent lines of credit with suppliers.


SBT

[langostino] 16/11/2017 13:16

As I said a good five years ago, when the price was much higher and the mine unpermitted, the worst possible outcome for this share was for the company to progress into production. The only value to shareholders will come through corporate action. That is as true today as it was then. The price of copper, the cost at which it is dug up and the price for which it is sold is marginal at best, and not worth fretting about. Second guessing Trafigura is the only game in play here, as it always has been. Happy New Year.

ps. of course bookworm disagreed with me but what happened to him?

[cufes2] 16/11/2017 13:13

You could try answering a question for once Shortarm rather than attacking the questioner . . . Unless you aren't able to, of course . . .

[vish65] 16/11/2017 13:08

$m
Working capital -13 (currently)
Astor -43
Expansion of 5.5m -70 (4.5m expansion was $70m)
Payables -61 (mostly capital items)
YtD cashflow from ops +32
Deficit -155

AISC $2.29 YtD

A Cash injection required folks.

[husbod] 16/11/2017 12:53

Deliberately understated report imo as others have stated. You can always tell a professional set up when they don't embellish the facts and just get on with building the company. Alberto reminds me of Drew Nelson the ceo of my favourite company IQE where it took years to get to where they knew they were going but if you look at the share price graph there you will see the benefits of belief and patience.Plus we should bear in mind that Alberto hasn't been in post very long but look what he has achieved in that time.More than happy to hold and would have topped up this morning when we were 9p down if I had had the spare readies.

[shortarm] 16/11/2017 12:24

Or maybe the sums is too ard?

[shortarm] 16/11/2017 12:22

Yu not reading so good Cufe.....

[cufes2] 16/11/2017 12:13

How are they going to fund expansion with performance like this and debtors to pay . . .

[vish65] 16/11/2017 10:37

The main liability of the working capital is trade payables. ($61m) The trade payable account relates to the main contractor where the Group has reached certain agreements to reduce its deficit progressively during 2017 and 2018. Atalaya expects the deficit to be reduced over the next months with cash generated by operations.

[mip55] 16/11/2017 10:27

Thanks Shortarm

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/11/2017 09:43

During the quarter, the study to demonstrate the feasibility of increasing mining and processing capacity beyond the current 9.5 Mtpa, to a maximum of 15.0 Mtpa at Proyecto Riotinto was finalised. The study has concluded the expansion is technically and financially robust. The Board is encouraged by these results and will provide further details on the expansion over the coming WEEKS. Estimated copper production of the expanded plant would reach approximately 50,000 – 55,000 tonnes per year.

[shakeypremis] 16/11/2017 09:07

Yes, results underwhelming on the surface but there is some creative accounting going on and the concentrate payment to Transamine. I smell a top-up opportunity. Rome wasn't built in a day. As long as copper continues to play ball and the mining rates hold up or improve, this cash-cow just got a little fatter.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/11/2017 08:52

SBT, initially a little flat on headline profits BUT $14M worth of concentrate was 'given' to Transamine in lieu of their cash advance to us, this is now settled in full, ahead of schedule, and another debt gone.., clearing the decks for a stonking Q4..

Working our way through all the debts outstanding is what we should be doing, and what the BOD are doing, the Social security debt is also settled in full, trade payable's in Q4 next, and FY won't leave much for Astor after costs associated with the expansion background work..

Not at all bad on closer inspection, we are building the company, and grinding forward.., a good time to top up in fact, the numbers are strong, just masked by the Transamine deal settlement..!

FY2017 production is looking like 39,000 Tonnes too.. :o)

[superbobtaylor] 16/11/2017 08:46

The cost side is basically unchanged which is not all that good although I would say with the rising euro rate it is not all that bad.

So why is the profit down? Basically the company just did not sell as much product. This quarter they sold €35m and the previous one €53M.

This is strange as they produced even more Cu in Q3 vs Q2 so where is the rest? Sat in a shed somewhere. As the company says it "increased its inventory levels by €9.6 million". Remember this is booked at cost not sell price so we don't make any profit on this.

Another way that ATYM are saying the same thing is that unrestricted cash and cash equivalents up from 1.6 to 9.1m on the quarter. They have also maintained levels of WIP.

We should also remember that the realised Cu price reflects mainly the Cu price from Q2 this year. Q4 (and Q1 2018) realised prices will be much higher.

So far the results have been very lumpy as they have
- Q1 (built stock levels)
- Q2 (run down stock levels)
- Q3 (built stock levels)

Hopefully in Q4 they will run the stock down again and we will get a bumper quarter.

Good to see they have paid of Transamine early and have the option of taking another deal should they want to ramp up the expansion project.

SBT

[rougepierre] 16/11/2017 08:46

Those look good enough to me...what's not to like...are we becoming bored with success...?

Buy on rumour, sell on fact...these results are another step on the steady way to a re-rating and wide acceptance as a significant player...

Onwards and upwards...

AIMHO as usual...(still warm and sunny in Vale do Lobo...)

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/11/2017 08:32

At 1st glance, not impressed, lower EBITDA and profits than Q2 despite record tonnages / grades.. to my surprise the working capital deficit has hardly been dented..

BUT the Transamine cash prepayment of $14.0M has been settled in full in advance of schedule.., so a big chunk of our product didn't form a part of the sales/earnings and profits, we also have €7.7M of inventory concentrate in stock..

Great progress for the company, and another debt gone, and some creative accounting to demonstrate low profits while Astor is pending, and we do the preparation work for the expansion to 15.0MTPA..

[shortarm] 16/11/2017 08:20

Not amazing results :-(