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Atalaya Mining Investors - ATYM

Atalaya Mining Investors - ATYM

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Stock Name Stock Symbol Market Stock Type Stock ISIN Stock Description
Atalaya Mining Plc ATYM London Ordinary Share CY0106002112 ORD 7.5P
  Price Change Price Change % Stock Price Last Trade
2.00 0.61% 330.00 16:35:26
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
331.00 325.50 333.50 330.00 328.00
more quote information »
Industry Sector

Top Investor Posts

estienne: I just bought Metal Tiger tipped by ST in the IC: Metal Tiger’s copper-bottomed investments Sandfire’s quarterly results highlights hidden value in Metal Tiger’s smelter royalties. Drilling to start on Kalahari Metals Project. UK investors have yet to cotton on to the hidden value in the copper assets of Metal Tiger (MTR:23p), an Aim-traded investment company primarily focused on undervalued natural resources opportunities. The latest quarterly report from Sandfire Resources (Aus:SFR), a mining and exploration group that is developing the T3 Copper-Silver and A4 projects in the Kalahari Copper Belt, Botswana was incredibly informative. Metal Tiger holds 6.2m shares in the A$1.2bn market capitalisation Australian Stock Exchange-listed worth A$42.3m (15.2p a share) in addition to a capped US$2m Net Smelter Royalty (NSR) on Sandfire’s T3 Motheo Project, and an uncapped 2 per cent NSR over 8,000km2 of Sandfire’s adjacent licence holdings, which includes the A4 resource area. Sandfire is expected to be awarded its mining licence to progress the US$259m development of T3 in the coming weeks, and has received proposals for debt financing from no fewer than nine participating banks. It’s hardly surprising given that T3 could generate US$1bn of cash profit over its initial 12.5-year mine life using a long-term copper price of US$3.16 per lb (30 per cent below the current spot price of US$4.55 per lb) and at production rate of 3.2m tonnes a year. The surging copper price – Goldman Sachs has a price target of US$15,000 per tonne (US$6.82 per lb) – means that A4 now looks nailed on to be developed, too. A4’s maiden inferred mineral resource of 6.5m tonnes grading 1.5 per cent copper and 24g per tonne silver suggests it could produce 100,000 tonnes of copper (market value of US$1bn) and 4.9m ounces of silver (US$129m).
robmcelf2: ATYM gets a tiny mention in the Investors Chronicle yesterday as part of a larger article about commodities supercycle.
robmcelf2: Although the cost guidance for 2021 is disappointing the fall seems overdone given copper prices. A pity Atalaya doesn't give firmer dates to help investors anticipate news flow - e.g on resources & reserves update and Elix feasibility study..
leopoldalcox: I've refrained from buying any more since 2017 because I thought the deferred consideration would put off investors. I'm happy the company have taken this step, which should allow more freedom in the balance sheet and possible allow for dividends to be paid. Topped up today
lasata: Today...........DL knows the copper market better than anyone. David Lilley, who founded the commodities investment management company, said during Fastmarkets' Copper Seminar that the metal is coming off a long bear market and money simply was not invested in the space. “I’m not forecasting prices, but it is a dangerous environment where everything is pointing in the same way – the investors want [copper exposure], they haven’t got it and the physical industry is really tight,” he said. “I’m certainly nervous, whether nervous is the right word, that markets like copper which have largely been behaving rationally, could behave irrationally. I think that’s something that anybody who runs a copper business has to think about,” he said, noting the potential stresses on working capital that could arise. Copper prices have soared in recent months, with the three-month London Metal Exchange price reaching new multi-year highs above $9,550 per tonne, roughly double year-ago levels. According to Lilley, large sections of the investment community..
stockready: Mark Welcome here Please go to hxxps:// And under menue choose investors > financial calender You find everything you need and alot more I suggest do proper search before any investment and make sure it is right for you and for how long you can afford to leave your money in Risk/rewards Fundamentals Financial Technical analysis Etc GOOD LUCK IMHO DYOR
stockready: Hi everyone Nice to see steady and strong rise Investors found this little gem and they are investing heavy. I predicted this scenario 2 months back and i think from Technical side new strong support have been stablisbed and this will settle around 3.50 mark before another push depending of course how fast the copper continues to rise and other fundamentals in the company which we are observing closely It has been a long wait but confidence and global investors are getting attracted to this amazing copper company. Lets all thank Alberto and his excellent teams for sticking with this company to deliver value and be persistent to come up with all the innovative ways to solve problems and save money to start up this mine. Without them this journey was not possible. GLA DYOR
stockready: Seems i was spot on (yet again) right before this surge comes through. Next stop is 280 as i predicted that and freebies will be out as we get ready for the next surge beyond £3 sooner than you think. Copper is the future of automotive and big part of furure electrification. Please don't have a slightest doubt this company will be transformed beyond anyone imaginations within the next year or two and those who are sold out will be stunned when they look back because ATYM will ve going beyond £5+ where it should be in less than 18 months or so and certainly £4 in less than 8-12 months i say. The drive is not just the strength of ATYM as a company but also the strength of copper as a strong commodity perhaps even more popular than silver, and nickel. Everyone wants copper soon and with massive transformation in china and growth this is even more attractive and attracting (investors) like magnets We will attrack loads of new investors this year. I am going no where for next 2 years at least and i am invested very heavily with a very nice and comfortable average. The time for ATYM is this year and now sit back and enjoy the ride, surely will be some ups and down as alwayd but the overal trends going forwards is just UP and UP believe me. GLA IMHO DYOR Stockers
rougepierre: Yesterday in Galicia Press...does this imply that ATYM will commence restoration work in order to restart the mine...? "The ‘Plataforma Veciñal Mina de Touro - O Pino NON’ warns in a statement of the intentions of the multinational based in Cyprus, which despite not having the approval of the Xunta in the past has not yet shelved its mining macro-project. The company has given its investors its “commitment to finding a solution for the development” of the project on the grounds of the former Touro mine. "He insists on entering by force, like an elephant in a china shop," criticizes the platform. Lavandeira, from Atalaya Mining, a company that wants to exploit the Touro mine Atalaya Mining jobs in Touro Last January took place in Galicia the last assault of a multi-year combat between a multinational mining company based in Cyprus, which is listed on the London Stock Exchange but with Chinese and Swiss investments, on one side and neighbors of Touro and O Pino, environmentalists, sea workers and various groups opposed to the opening of a mining macro-complex in the other. They won the second, led by the 'Plataforma Veciñal Mina de Touro - O Pino NON', which after fighting against all odds, in addition to local administrations, managed to beat Atalaya Mining, which despite the negative Environmental Impact Statement signed in his day for the Xunta seems to return to the load. Despite the arguments of the Xunta to declare the Atalaya Mining project environmentally unsustainable, the company, “majority partner of the promoter Cobre San Rafael, which is the one who actually presents the project and has no more guarantees than the declaration of intentions of the multinational ”, as the neighborhood platform points out, intends to take up arms again in Touro. "He insists on entering by force, like an elephant in a china shop", laments from the organization. WATCHTOWER MINING STRIKES BACK The group warns that in the last presentation sent to Atalaya Mining investors, the multinational is trying to convince them that there is a "commitment to finding a solution for the development" of the Touro Project. However, they maintain that the storage of the rafts of madmen is "the best international practice", despite the unfavorable reported numbers, such as the one carried out in 2019 by the geophysicist Steven Emerman, who explained the deficits of this system and the existing irrigation for Touro's neighbors. “This type of announcements by Atalaya Mining to its investors is nothing new, since in January of this year, after hearing the negative resolution of the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS), it expressed the intention to legally appeal the administrative resolution ”, They comment from the platform. RESTORATION OF THE GROUNDS In this sense, the organization once again demands "the restoration of the land and the waters of the old mine, closed more than 30 years ago, which generates serious damage to the environment", with a special impact not only among the population of Touro and O Pino, but also in the river beds, as happens today in the Portapego river. "What Atalaya Mining must do, and thus the Xunta must demand it, is to restore the damage caused in recent decades," they say. "The neighbors of Touro and O Pino will not cease in our efforts to ensure that the law is complied with and all responsibilities arising from the management of the Touro mine are purged, both in relation to the current project and the consequences derived from the previous exploitation of copper and the activities of the current concessionaire ”, concludes the note."
rougepierre: Here's a compelling report from the ARS Board... "Global Resource Anomaly: Commodities versus Commodity Stocks - Goehring & Rozencwajg “The physical commodity markets and the natural resource equity markets are telling two drastically different stories.” At Goehring & Rozencwajg, we are deep-value, contrarian investors. For nearly 30 years, we have been studying long, drawn-out bear markets. One of our observations over the years has been that distinct anomalies develop at or near the bottom of these protracted periods of investor negativity. As investors become increasingly panicked, reason often gives way to strong emotional responses. As value investors, we are inclined to doubt the efficient-market hypothesis. However, we do agree that the broad market serves as an aggregate measure of investor expectations. Therefore, whether the market is right or wrong, you would expect its views to be internally consistent. While this is true most of the time, there are distinct periods where emotion takes over entirely, and Mr. Market appears to offer contradictory advice. We believe these periods are often associated with major market turning points and so we study them intensely. Today we would like to touch on one major anomaly currently underway that we hope is a sign we’re nearing a capitulation bottom in the commodity markets. The largest anomaly we see today is the price action between commodities and commodity stocks. We were quoted in Barron’s on June 28th, 2019. The article discussed how the first half of 2019 was the strongest start for commodity prices in 11 years. The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index advanced by 13% over the first six months of the year to end at 2,497, the highest first-half advance since 2008. Since the bottom in February 2016, the index has advanced by 32%. Focusing on oil, WTI advanced by 30% during the first six months of the year, making it the second highest reading in 11 years. Oil prices are now 125% above their February 2016 lows. An energy equity investor, however, experienced something very different. For the first six months of the year, the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Index was up only 3%, the sixth worst start to the year in the past two decades. Since oil bottomed in February 2016, this same group is up less than 5%, lagging the commodity price by 120 percentage points. While larger capitalization energy stocks did better since the market bottomed in 2016, even the market-cap weighted natural resource stock index only returned 21% over the same period. The discrepancy in the oil service stocks has been even more stark. For example, since the oil market bottomed in February 2016, the OSX is down 41% despite the doubling of the oil price. So far this year, it is down 3% despite the best start for the commodity markets in over a decade. The physical commodity markets and the natural resource equity markets are telling two drastically different stories. The physical markets are telling you that chronic tightness has emerged in several commodities, while the equity market is telling you the whole sector is nearing distress. Notably, this alleged distress is not being reflected at all in natural resource-related bond prices, often a good indicator of potential trouble. We believe this divergence is incredibly important. Rarely do the commodity markets and natural resource equity markets differ so materially. This divergence should not be ignored. One interesting measure of global commodity demand is the BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index. This index represents the price to ship dry bulk goods and is a composite of Capesize, Panamax and Handysize vessel day rates. While other factors, including the supply of new vessels, can certainly impact this index, it is often used as a real-time barometer of global commodity demand. We cannot reconcile the idea that global commodity demand is slowing at the same time as the cost to ship that demand is surging at the second-fastest rate ever. While none of these anomalies on their own prove that we are nearing a turning point, we do believe they point to a natural resource equity market that has been gripped by fear and panic. For many investors, last fall was the final straw and we keep hearing of clients who swear never to re-enter the natural resource markets again. As contrarian value investors, these are precisely the markets we like to get involved with. We believe these anomalies are indications that equity investors are not acting rationally, but rather are extrapolating a never-ending trend. The indications are stacking up that this commodity equity bear market is living on borrowed time and that a turning point is fast approaching.' And this... "Copper Supply Takes a Hit - Goehring & Rozencwajg Natural Resource Market Commentary 'Over the last three and a half years, we have remained committed copper bulls. On the demand side, a number of important trends have emerged suggesting that copper has the best demand profile of all the base metals. First, strong Chinese demand growth will continue. Next, investments in renewable energy sources remains incredibly copper-intensive and are set to accelerate. Finally, India (which has the world’s second largest population) has an extremely low level of copper invested in its economy. We believe this is about to change as India enters into a period of accelerated copper consumption that could last for decades. Each of these copper demand sources are in and of themselves significant, but our research tells us that all three are now taking place simultaneously. This has the potential to overload the global copper market as we progress into the next decade. Because of Trump-related trade war fears, we are seeing some weakness in Chinese copper demand. For the first five months of 2019, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) indicated Chinese copper demand fell 3.5% year-over-year, however this appears to have abated as Chinese demand rebounded strongly in April and May. Given the recent up-tick in Chinese manufacturing data and steel production, we believe the Chinese economy is not slowing to the degree many bears fear. At the same time, there have been very large developments regarding copper mine supply that have received little attention. In previous letters, we discussed how copper mines supply would cease to grow, after having surged by over 5% in both 2015 and 2016 as six new mines came on line in Peru and Kazakhstan. Few new “greenfield221; mines were scheduled to come after 2016, while “brownfield221; mine developments would not be enough to overcome global copper mine depletion. Since 2016, copper mines supply has indeed been flat. Going forward, the only significant source of new mine supply will come from the development of the Cobre Panama mine where production is now starting to ramp up. Next year, Cobre Panama is expected to produce 150,000 tonnes of copper and production should ramp to 350,000 tonnes in 2021. In 2022, the company plans to begin a mine expansion and ultimately double production by 2024-2025. After Cobre Panama ramps up, the next large “greenfield221; project to come on line is the massive Oyu Tolgoi underground block-cave in Mongolia. Copper production from Oyu Tolgoi underground was estimated to reach 75,000 tonnes in 2022, 275,000 tonnes in 2023, and ultimately 425,000 tonnes by 2024. The next great “greenfield221; project to come on line would be Ivanhoe’s Kamoa-Kakula project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, expected to commence production sometime in 2023. We just visited the Kamoa-Kakula project, and in a moment we will discuss our obser- vations. First, we must discuss the recent problems plaguing Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia. I first visited OyuTolgoi back in the summer of 2002, just before the “HugoNorthR21; discovery was made. At the time of my visit, the Oyu Tolgoi mining camp was abuzz with excitement regarding the upcoming drilling targeting a huge magnetic anomaly just to the north of the original deposit. A huge Soviet Antonov An-225 cargo plane had been contracted to deliver the drill rig to the Ulaanbaatar airport. Drilling was scheduled to commence a few weeks later. Just as the geologists had expected, the drilling program discovered a huge extremely high-grade copper-gold deposit that was named “Hugo North” in honour of Hugo Dummett, the distinguished geologist who worked for the predecessor to Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ), and had just been killed in a highway accident in 2002. The “Hugo North” discovery was one of greatest copper discoveries made in the latter half of the 20th century. It is unique in that it is both high grade and large. Assuming 400,000 tonnes of copper production per year, the mine will still be producing 60 years from today. In July, Turquoise Hill Resources, in conjunction with its operating partner Rio Tine, announced that start-up of the underground block-cave had been delayed for up to two years as the company wrestled with rock geotechnical conditions that were not previously understood. The company announced that design of the underground mine might have to be changed and that the capital needed to complete the project would be 25% to 35% higher than originally expected. The announcement raised a number of questions that were not answered by the company which suggests the underground start-up might be significantly delayed again. The company has determined that the present mine design is sub-optimal and significant changes will likely be required. However, exactly what the problems are and how they will be resolved remain unknown. Given the inherent complexities involved with block-cave operations, and the huge amount of underground development work that has already taken place, we would not be surprised if further delays ultimately end up pushing the start-up out much further. Making matters worse, rumors have emerged that the Mongolian Government is unhappy about both the delay and the surge in capital costs. It was only back in 2015, after a lengthy stoppage in underground development, that the present fiscal agreement between Turquoise Hill, Rio Tinto, and the Mongolian government was reached. The Mongolian government controls 34% of the Oyu Tolgoi project, but will not receive any payouts until 2041. This is because the loan to fund the purchase of the 34% interest first needs to be repaid. Given the delay and the capital cost increase, the payback period is going to be pushed out even further. In response to the further delay of any potential dividends, the Mongolian Government has said it might “rip up” its 2015 fiscal agreement. Given the uncertain fiscal conditions, Rio Tinto, the operator of the Oyu Tolgoi project, stopped underground development for two years before the 2015 fiscal agreement was put in place. If the government were to reopen the 2015 fiscal agreement, another stoppage in underground development would be likely. While at this point we cannot know how serious the Mongolian threats are, it is something we will monitor will great interest. As things stand today, the Oyu Tolgoi underground will not commence before mid-2023. The net result is that 400,000 tonnes of copper production (or 2% of world mine supply) that was scheduled to hit the market in 2021, may not start until mid-decade. The problems at Oyu Tolgoi highlight the difficulty in growing copper mine supply as we move into the 2020s. This bring us to Kamoa-Kakula, Ivanhoe Mines’ (IVN) project in the DRC. We visited the project back in the beginning of May. The deposit is clearly world-class. The project economics rank among the best we have seen based on the current resource. Moreover, there is strong reason to believe that new large discoveries will be made across Ivanhoe’s exploration concession immediately to the west of the Kamoa North discovery. The project sits on the western side of the historical Congo copper belt in an area that geolo- gists never before explored. Consensus geological wisdom held that copper mineralization ended immediately west of the mining village of Katanga and as a result little exploration ever took place. Ivanhoe reinterpreted the geological theories and their exploration success in this new area has changed the conventional wisdom. The total capital cost to develop the Kamoa-Kakula deposits is estimated at $1.1 bn while the project will generate an after-tax NPV of $10 bn using a $3.10 copper price. For those unfamiliar with modern mining economics, these figures are basically unheard-of. Initial production is expected to start at the Kakula mine in 2023 and will eventually ramp up over the next 10 years to almost 475,000 tonnes of annual copper production. Given the high probability that additional new deposits will be discovered, the ultimate copper production from the project might end up being significantly higher. We believe the biggest risk to the project comes from the DRC government. Since the original Kamoa discovery was made, the DRC government has already changed the mining royalty structure, including the addition of a “super-profits” tax which kicks in when the commodity price rises 25% above the assumed price used in the project’s feasibility study. Given how governments chronically change mining fiscal terms, we believe there is a strong possibility that the DRC could very well change the terms again, long before the Kamoa-Kakula project comes on line resulting in project delays. Further negotiations between the project consortium (besides Ivanhoe, two large Chinese SOEs are involved with the project) and the government have still not concluded. We believe the most contentious issue will be the government’s stated intention that IVN build a copper smelter to process the mine’s concentrate. Such a smelter would represent a large additional capital cost for the project. While the project’s economics are so robust that building a smelter would only slightly diminish the ultimate returns, there are other problems aside from economics. As of today, we do not believe the region’s electrical supply is either large enough or reliable enough to justify a smelter. While these problems will ultimately be resolved, in the meantime that could present problems for the project’s aggressive start-up date. For a good example of the problems surrounding smelters, just look at what befell Freeport Copper and the Indonesian government as a result of the government’s demand for a new copper smelter to be built in Indonesia. The Kamoa-Kakula copper project is incredibly robust and we believe there are few (if any) technical issues (like the problems that surround the underground project at Oyu Tolgoi). However, the complexities of dealing with the DRC government could ultimately make the ramp-up of the project by 2023 too optimistic. Deeply embedded problems have emerged in copper mine supply over the last several years. Increased mine depletion and the lack of large scale “greenfield221; projects top the list. To this, we must now add issues surrounding Oyu Tolgoi. Making matters more complicated, several of the world’s largest copper mines are in the process of transitioning from open-pit to under-ground. As Grasberg (the world’s second largest copper mine) and Chuquicamata (13th largest copper mine) both go underground, the risk of additional disappointments grows. Given all these issues, we believe it will extremely difficult to see any copper mine supply growth in the next five years. We think that the copper market will be the best performing base metal as strong demand trends are met by a dearth of mine supply growth. Today, investors are bearish as worries about trade-war dislocations and Chinese copper demand take center stage. However, the demand and supply trends just discussed will exert themselves over the next several years. Copper bottomed in January 2016 at $1.95 per pound before rallying to $3.30 over the next 18 months. Given the fear surrounding Chinese growth and trade-related demand impacts, copper prices today have pulled back to $2.60 per pound. We believe the pullback has presented investors with an excellent buying opportunity.' Enjoy...
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