Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
AT Communications Group LSE:ATCG London Ordinary Share GB00B0C8K346 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 3.875p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0 06:37:39
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Software & Computer Services - - - - 2.98

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Date Time Title Posts
09/9/200909:04AT COMMUNICATIONS: A real ICT value play !1,597
04/8/200907:22AT - high debts and finance director leaves on 18 July35
04/8/200900:20BUY ATCG7
03/11/200807:23ATCG , an undervalued company.81
04/9/200812:14AT COMMUNICATIONS1,093

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cocker: should have smelt the rat with no director buys over the last few months, whilst the share price drifted to what seemed a bargain.
masurenguy: Hi jwe - fair point. AT has around 13m or nearly 17% of the shares. Don't know what his average price is since he had around 11.7m at the time of the IPO so one might imagine that he might not be much underwater here. Scott Kean also had circa 2.5m at the IPO compared to 2.7m now so he is probably at a similar cost price. Other directors and former directors are not so fortunate since in most cases they acquired their shares post IPO. The most obvious example is former FD Ian Crawley who holds 2.46m at an average price of around 40p. He is down almost £750k at the current share price ! I suspect that AT may wait if he thinks that the company fortunes will now be on the up following the Rocom sale. Eventually I think that he will dispose of his holding in one or more blocks to an institution since there is insufficient liquidity to sell them in the open market - it could take years. The other possibility of course is that ATC could be taken over by a larger Telecoms outfit who might now view them as good value at say 25p/30p or £20m/£23m now that Rocom has gone. Debt is at much more managable levels and the remaining core business is forecasted to achieve an eps of 4.3p this year and 5.8p next year with debt also reducing to £4m/£5m by then. I think that the takeover option is the most likely scenario but we can only wait and see what the happens !
masurenguy: The most recent Cenkos Note for those who have mot seen it. ........................................................... 15 April 2009 AT Communications Price Target 34p 52-week range 9.75p - 35p AT Communications (ATC) announced preliminary results for the year to December 2009 today. The figures are over-shadowed by the recent disposal of Rocom (announced in March 2009), which has strengthened the group s balance sheet and prospects. That said, the numbers were in line with our expectations - EBITDA was up 4% at £8.7m on sales of £98.4m (£88.4m). This organic revenue growth of 11% was driven by a particularly strong performance from Servassure which delivered a 58% increase in sales on the back of c£2m of investment in H1 2008. PBT was down 4% at £6.0m, due to higher interest expenses in 2008, but net debt of £18.1m was well down on the interim level (£22m). The sale of Rocom for £12.45m has improved the groups financial strength further, but net proceeds were only c£8m after the payment of fees, and a working capital investment in the two months before sale. The Rocom disposal has improved ATC s financial position and the continuing operations, which generated sales growth of 22% in 2008, are well positioned to deliver further growth in profitability and cash flow in 2009 and beyond. However, the rating (EV/EBITDA of 3.9 and PE of 3.3 to December 2009) is unlikely to improve until the group can give clear evidence of cash generation. Forecasts We are forecasting revenue and EBITDA for 2009 of £54.4m & £5.1m respectively. These figures exclude the two months of contribution from Rocom in 2009, which we estimate to amount to revenue of £7m and EBITDA of £0.4m, and assume that sales increase by only 3% in 2009. Given organic sales growth in 2008 of 22% and a number of encouraging contract wins in recent months, we consider this assumption to be conservative. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet ATC has had to invest a significant amount of capital to fund the growth of the last two years. In 2008, there was a £7.6m working capital outflow, primarily to finance the 58% sales growth at Servassure and additional product lines at Rocom (c1.6m). We are forecasting net debt to fall to c£9m by the end of 2009 given the proceeds of the Rocom disposal and the reduction in working capital investment required as growth slows. Graeme Kemp Research Analyst +44 (0)20 7397 8915 Stuart Lunn Research Analyst +44 (0)131 9771 Share Price Performance Significant Share Holders Timothy Alexander Tupman 16.8% Rathbone Investment Mgt 9.2% New Star Asset Mgt 4.1% Scott Charles Kean 3.4% Ian Crawley 3.1% Other Directors/Officers 0.2% Cenkos Securities plc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
tundertre: My thoughts? If I was AT I would be looking to get the banks off my back a bit right now. We are in a period where 'cash is king' and although ATCG is a cash-generative business they are mostly using it to service debts right now. We have seen a modest upward drift in the share price on small to zero volume recently. What's that about? Nobody in the City likes Tupman, so it's not his fan-base doing that. So, my GUESS is that AT would be looking kindly on anything that would generate cash right now, and would even consider selling off parts of their business (ones they do not care for) to do so. Just backing a hunch I think they might really do it. Wether it will be good or bad for the share price i cannot say. And don't overmuch care since I have a zero holding currently, but keep this on my screen for old times sake. T123.
masurenguy: Hmm....well the share price is down circa 13% since you last posted on June 8th and over the same period the AIM All Share Index is down 22% so on that basis the ATCG share price has fallen considearbly less than the overall AIM market. The Daily Mail and Independent have both speculated about an MBO and both reports have been completely without any foundation. The company issued an RNS to refute the last newspaper story and there continues to be no substance whatsoever in speculation about any potential MBO ! The last placing was at 47p in July 2007. Since then the shares have fallen by 45% and there are very many other small caps - both FTSE 350 and AIM - that have fallen more than that over the same timescale. Neither commonsense, gut instinct or even prior discussions with the company gives me any reason to believe than anything is 'amiss'. They continue to increase both sales and profits and the depressed price is more a reflection of the amount of debt (£15m at the last year end) that they are carrying as a legacy of the Rocom acquisition some 2 years ago plus the fact that we are also in a bear market which tends to hit small cap share prices far more than larger companies. I don't think that you are even a shareholder here so I'm not sure either of your agenda or the point you are trying to make !
masurenguy: Perplexed by the sudden departure of Ian Crawley after just a year as FD, I had a quick look to see what third party information I could find on ATCG to see if it might provide any insight into this latest development. The most recent comments I could find were a brief GCI comment on a new small cap fund planning to invest in ATCG almost 3 weeks ago and AiW's coverage of the AGM back in April. Both pieces are quite positive although one can never be sure of unforseen events that can subsequently emerge, particularly in this current climate. Anyway, they are reproduced below - I'm sure that there will be some further insight into this sudden and rather unexpected FD change in due course. ......................................................................................... GCI 30/06/2008: Judith MacKenzie, partner and manager of the forthcoming Acuity Capital Real Active Management (RAM) Fund, is confident that the UK smaller company sector offers attractive investment opportunities. Set for launch at the end of July, the fund will invest in around 25-30 companies, mostly sub-£50 million market cap concerns, with a focus on those that have either fallen from grace or have turnaround potential. MacKenzie believes the fund will take advantage of a 'tipping point' in a cycle now opening up in favour of smaller companies. She points out, 'The situations that we were looking at that were good value and cash-generative about 12 months ago were sitting on price/earnings (p/e) ratios of less than ten times – these are now three to four times. 'We are seeing companies with all the right attributes trading at very low valuations. We think it's a good tipping point in the cycle to get involved with these companies.' Having previously been employed as Aberdeen Asset Management's senior investment manager, MacKenzie has a wealth of small-cap experience, which, she argues, sets this fund apart. "Using past experience of private equity means we can look at things in a slightly different way and because we are a petite fund management house, we are more capable of moving quickly. It's also quite difficult to get exposure to small caps in the way that we're doing it, through applying this private equity due-diligence process." Time to call on AT MacKenzie has her eye on £21.6 million telecoms company AT Communications. 'This company has tripped up a couple of times, but has always hit profit forecasts. It was unfortunately caught up in the Torex case a few years back and although it wasn't directly involved, the share price was affected, but it is more or less back on track now. 'This is a company we have known for some time and have done some work on. It is sitting on a p/e of about three times, which is pretty cheap for a company of this size. AT also has a consistent track record, which is very important.' ........................................................................................ The AiW April 10th AGM report on TMF: Extracts: 1. The presentation was made by Alex Tupman, CEO, and Ian Crawley. AT was in a very colourful shirt. Both Alex and Ian were very welcoming (Ian has a very firm handshake). Ian had to stifle a few yawns, its tough being a FD these days given all the changes to accounting standards, but Alex was very lively, very positive about ATCG's prospects. Ian was also in a very relaxed mood, the atmosphere was friendly, both Alex and Ian were confident and excited about the future prospects of the group. 2. ATCG was a considerably riskier proposition last year compared to the ATCG of today. The message of yesterday is that the three divisions are firing on all cylinders, the business model is the right one. As a result of maintenance and network services being typically three-year contracts, there is good visibility of earnings going forward – over 70% of revenues are contracted and recurring. (as in 70% of last year's revenue.) 3. From the presentation: - New bank facilities in place - Net debt reduced by £3.1m in Q4 to £15.4m at year-end - Net debt focus to fall further to c£12m by December 2008 - Restructured business capable of securing global, multi-sited clients: high-margin business - Contracted and recurring revenues over 70% - Board confident of continued growth and future prospects. A few more words on the bank debt: - ATCG very pleased with their relationship with HBOS - The new facility will reduce interest costs going forward - Five-year amortising facility, although there is a significant bullet component. 4. I have seen Alex show signs of extreme frustration in the past when the share price was mentioned, and this was when the share price was above 40p. Yesterday, he just shrugged and smiled. The signs yesterday were positive with regard to the actual business. The dynamics between the CEO and the FD were good, they clearly believe they have done the difficult work, and there was a lot of difficult work to do in 2007. They now can concentrate on the day-to-day issues of driving the company forward. They also very clearly believe that ATCG is one or two steps ahead of the competition, there was quite a lot of discussion about this at the meeting. 5. Today, ATCG seems to be in the position they want to be in. If the smiles on the faces of the CEO & FD are now translated into new contracts, high margins and tight working capital management, we should see a re-rating when the interim results are announced. Complete Post:
masurenguy: Fair comment - companies that are comparatively highly geared in this climate are being heavily penalised by the market and that is really the main reason why the ATCG share price has suffered over the past 6 months.
stemis: Instead this is virtually being priced to go bust ! I don't have visibility of the detailed brokers forecast but the expected PBT of £6.2m (see trading statement) must equate to an EBIT of £7.6m or so. On a fully taxed basis that makes enterprise value about 7.3 x earnings. That's pretty cheap but its not hard to find stocks trading on lower ratings than that. There's usually something the market doesn't like about them and in ATCG's case I'd suggest it is their cashflow. The problem with high debt is the leverage effect on value. ATCG share price could drop 10% but it would only reduce the enterprise rating to 6.8 x
masurenguy: A brief review of the potential for ATC early in the new fiscal year. The share price has drifted down by 25% over the past 6 months, largely due to a combination of existing gearing and the impact of the credit crunch on small cap stocks. However the share price decline has been less than other Telecom sector small caps like Vanco (down 58%) and Redstone (down 33%) over the same period. The company would still appear to be on track for sales of circa £90m for y/e Dec 2007 and earnings of circa 5.5p. At todays unchanged closing price of 36p that would put them on an historic PE of circa 6 and an even lower PER & PEG for next year once some new forecasts have been issued and analysed. It is worth reviewing the last two third party Buy recommendations from broker Cenkos and tip site Watshot during the past 3 months. Extract from Cenkos Sept 27th Buy Recommendation: Share price target: 70p ATC delivered a 25% increase in PBT to £2.3m (stripping out exceptionals and amortisation costs) on sales up 168% at £42.7m. This increase in PBT was achieved despite the significant number of staff added during the period and a £0.5m increase in the interest charge to £0.7m to service the debt taken on in August 06 to finance the acquisition of Rocom. EPS decreased to 2.1p (2.5p) primarily due to exceptional costs and amortisation. Stripping out these costs and normalising the tax charge gives EPS of 2.6p. Debt increased to £19.8m (£18.5m) during the period due to the increased working capital requirements of the business, but a placing in August raising £4.8m (net) together with operating cashflow in H2 should see debt levels fall to c£15m by the end of the year. Interest cover remained very comfortable at almost 4x. Synopsis of the Watshot Tip on December 13th: Sales are set to increase to £90m for the current year, more than 3x the size of the current market cap with 70% of revenues now recurring and a steady stream of contract wins over recent months. The fall in the share price is unjustified despite the substantial debt levels which may have deterred some potential investors but current interest cover remains at around 4x pretax income. At 33.5p the PE is circa 4 with a very profitable underlying business which is geared for growth and sooner or later the market will wake up to this fantastic growth story. BUY Hopefully the company will release a post year end trading update this month (there was one in December 06) rather than allow market uncertainty and speculation to prevail and depress the share price until the full year results are published in March.
masurenguy: A really excellent post from Colin (AliceinWonder) from TMF. I've edited out some of the background data, which we are all largely familiar with, in order to both shorten it and to highlight the information that is most pertinent to his view of the trading potential. His content summarises the investment case quite clearly. ............................................................................... Executive summary Share price – 47.5p (46p/49p) Shares in issue – 66.2m Market cap – £31m (net debt as at 31 December 2006 was approximately £18.5m) I am quite excited about the prospects of ATCG, so Foolish Friends, the best thing for you to do is to jump to the section on negatives ("What I don't like in March"), and if not put off by the negatives, I suggest you invest in some background reading, starting with ATCG's 2006 accounts. From the 2006 accounts. Rocom "Rocom is the distribution arm of the Group. Rocom has two decades of experience in the communications market with distribution efforts focused on voice and data resellers, network services dealers, retail channels and online retailers. Now that Rocom is part of a larger Group, it is the only UK distributor with the ability to distribute IP-based customer premises equipment, hosted IP communications, and in-house network services, all supported by in-house technical services to assist channels and their customers in managing the transition to IP-based solutions. Servassure "Servassure is the services arm of the Group. It is a fully-independent third party service provider to channel partners in the UK ICT market, including ATC Solutions and Rocom. Servassure was formed to provide traditional and IP-based carrier and engineering services with a 100% channel focus; this division does not sell direct to end-users. Instead, the services are packaged for indirect consumption in the following flavours: resale, distribution and wholesale. Group strategy "The Group's strategy is to deliver long-term and sustainable shareholder value and returns by ensuring total market coverage in our sector. The Group's three new divisions operate as independent businesses: this neutrality allows the individual divisions to maximise their performance by reacting to the demands of their own customers and channels; at the same time, the Group leverages its scale and shared resources to ensure best practice at the business division level with elimination of duplicity." Key drivers "The four key drivers of Group strategy are: - Focus on fast-growing, IP-based sectors of the market – the migration of end-user customers to IP is an inevitability, and the Group is well-positioned to benefit from this market evolution. - Breadth of coverage – the Group can now reach customers directly or indirectly, from 5 to 50,000+ employees, through various routes to market. - Margin-rich managed services creation – the Group has significant in-house expertise in all areas of ICT and is increasingly focused on long-term, margin-rich, service-based customer and channel contracts. These recurring revenue streams deliver sustainable value to the Group. - Acquisitions: the Group will continue to monitor market trends and may consider strategic or bolt-on acquisitions. I will summarise what has happened since I wrote my March review. April placing On 2 April, ATCG announced a placing: "5,300,000 ordinary shares of 1p each, have been placed with institutional investors at a price of 37 pence per ordinary share, raising gross proceeds of £1.96 million before expenses. The proceeds of the Placing will be used to pay down debt and provide additional working capital to support the Group's continued growth." April contract On 18 April, ATCG announced "£2.5 million of annualised reseller contracts. ATC's Rocom division will now manage the reseller contracts on behalf of a leading UK-based telecoms operator and carrier. These contracts were migrated to ATC as a result of the Group's ability to provide a broad range of communications technology and solutions. In addition to the enhanced earnings visibility through the existing annual voice services contracts, ATC is now actively working with these customers to cross-sell additional products and services from the Group's broad portfolio under the existing supplier relationship." May contract On 23 May, ATCG announced: the group "has secured a prestigious three-year contract with the retailer FADS, the UK high street decorating specialist, for the provision of SiNET, the Group's hosted IP telephony service. ATC has SiNET trials with several major retail chains and this contract win is the first to have concluded successfully. Other and new trials are continuing. The contract with FADS covers the provision of SiNET, combined with voice minutes, IP trunks and full installation and maintenance services, across 60 sites and FADS' headquarters. The service will be delivered to FADS via a single monthly bill." 2007 AGM The Chairman commented as follows at the 2007 AGM, 24 May: "I am delighted to report that current trading continues to be in line with the Board's expectation. The Group continues to benefit from its strategy to focus on large enterprise customers with significant new contract wins including Nottinghamshire Primary Care Trust and Thistle Hotels. The Nottinghamshire PCT win is a good example of cross-selling; a previous Rocom Corporate customer, the account is now part of ATC Solutions, and the historical trading relationship was a crucial factor behind ATC Solutions winning the IP telephony contract. Thistle Hotels is benefiting from our Servassure service delivery business through its contract with BT." I was lucky enough to attend the 2007 AGM with Carmensfella. Observations: - The board seem to work well as a team. - The non-execs both worked for BT for many years. - The execs are all between the ages of 40 and 45. I was particularly impressed by Richard Carter, who is in charge of Rocom. Alex Tupman, CEO, softly spoken, very focussed. - The board acknowledged that they need to do more to get the message across that they have, in their eyes, a distinctive USP. They were excited about the potential of ATCG. "We have been at the forefront of both the IP technology revolution and the consolidation in the UK market – by anticipating changes to the landscape, the Group will continue to be a leading light in the ICT sector." June - Board strengthened Two new appointments: - Ian Crawley (aged 45) appointed as Group Finance Director. - Andrew Parsliffe (aged 52) appointed Commercial Director. Both chartered accountants. Mr Crawley has a very impressive CV: - Most recent position was with Shell International, where he was responsible for major international M&A and project finance transactions. - Prior to Shell: CFO at BT's Openworld division where he played a key role in transforming the business from a loss maker to a profitable UK leading internet service provider. - Earlier in his career he was a Director of Commercial Contracts at BT heading a group responsible for BT's customer and distributor contracts worldwide. - Prior to that, he was joint Head of Corporate Finance with responsibility for BT's M&A transactions worldwide. - Prior to BT: CFO of Interoute Communications Group Ltd, an international telecommunications services provider. - He began his career as a commissioned officer in the Parachute Regiment. - On leaving the Army he trained as an accountant with Deloitte before embarking upon his career in telecommunications with Cable & Wireless. Wow. New FD opens his wallet On the date Mr Crawley's appointment was announced: "The Board of ATC was informed today that Ian Crawley, recently appointed Finance Director, today purchased 1,511,429 Ordinary Shares of 1p each at a price of 38p per share which represents 2.28% of the Issued Ordinary Share Capital of the Company. Mr Crawley held no shares in the Group prior to this purchase." On the assumption that Mr Crawley did some due diligence before agreeing to join ATCG, the share purchase is a very positive message to the market. June contract On 18 June, ATCG announced: "a significant contract win with PC World Direct, a division of Dixons Stores Group International, which is anticipated to generate revenues in the region of £2m over the next 12 months. ATC will advise PC World Direct on achieving the optimal sales mix of telecom products and will be responsible for product supply, direct branded delivery as well as marketing and training. All telecom products will be supported by ATC's inventory management system which will supply the client with a data feed providing instant product pricing and stock information. The contract, secured via the Group's Rocom division, is for an initial 12 months." July contract On 9 July, ATCG announced a significant contract win: "The Board of ATC is pleased to announce that, in addition to its recently extended six year contract with BT to support a wide range of Traditional and IP Telephony systems, it will now include the supply of the Mitel 3300 ICP and SX-2000 range of products. This is a significant announcement for the Group as it is now combining its traditional support role via the Group's Servassure division with complementary product supply to BT via the Group's Rocom division. The inclusion of the Mitel product line together with associated support services is expected to generate revenues in the region of £9m to the Group over the next three years." Expectations Per the ATCG website, the company has helpfully included the following: Profit before tax and goodwill amortisation: 2004 - £0.3m (actual) 2005 - £1.1m (actual) 2006 - £4.6m (actual) 2007 - £6.0m (forecast) Per Digital Look: Turnover: 2007 - £95.7m 2008 - £107.0m Profit before tax: 2007 - £6.3m 2008 - £7.8m Adjusted EPS (before goodwill amortisation): 2007 – 6.8p 2008 – 8.6p IF ATCG achieves an adjusted EPS of 6.8p in 2007, the company will be on a PE ratio of marginally less than 7. Working capital Note ATCG achieved in 2006: Turnover: £54m Profit before tax: £4.2m As at 31 December 2006: Stock - £7.3m Debtors - £21.9m Short-term Creditors excluding bank overdraft - £26.6m Working capital requirements - £2.6m The directors intimated that they did not expect net borrowings to fall substantially in 2007 notwithstanding: - Sale and leaseback announced in February, proceeds £3.5m. - Placing in April, gross proceeds £2.0m. The reason being that working capital requirements are likely to increase in 2007, mainly due to turnover almost doubling. Note also that Rocom is a lower margin business compared to ATC Solutions and Servassure, the bulk of the increased turnover coming from the Rocom division. Recapping on what I didn''t like (in March 2007). - Mark Woodridge, ex-FD. - The auditors. - I don't understand what the company does. - ATCG continues to evolve. - Acquisitions remain on the agenda. - The high level of stock. - Debt on the balance sheet. - The recent sale and leaseback. FD – I am very happy with the appointment of Mr Ian Crawley as the new FD. Auditors – MRI Moores Rowland: I met up with the partner in charge of the audit at the 2007 AGM, he has as clients a number of companies of a similar size to ATCG, seemed 'switched on' for an auditor. I am not punching the air with the delight, but at least we are not talking Baker Tilly. The business – I still don't understand the business particularly well, but I like the concept of cross-selling, I like the idea that ATCG is at the forefront of changes in the communications business, not least VoiP, and I like the client list and the relationships with the likes of BT. Acquisitions – I doubt if Alex Tupman would turn down the opportunity to purchase a company that would add value to the ATCG business model, but I am keeping my fingers crossed that opportunities do not arise in 2007, or at least until the forecast PE ratio of ATCG is 10+. Stock – a bit of a red herring, Rocom is a distributor of comm's equipment, so Rocom means stock. Having said that, I hope stock levels do not become significant compared to turnover. Debt – this is my main concern. As long as ATCG continues to generate profits in line with forecast, the company's friendly bank manager should continue to be friendly. With circa £18.5m of net debt, and assuming the 2007 forecast is close to reality, ATCG is expecting to generate £6.3m PBT and goodwill, assuming 30% tax rate, net debt is about 4.4 times operating profits less tax, which is not either particularly high or low. I would be more happy with a ratio of 3, and more nervous with a ratio of 6. Sale and leaseback (and the placing) – indicative that ATCG would like to see the debt figure lower. My ideal scenario would be to see ATCG's share price tick up as the market gets more comfortable with the business model. Tempting fate, but if the share price reached 65p+, I would then like to see a placing which materially reduced debt, but hey, I am an accountant. One for all, all for one? Alex Tupman owns 19.3% of the equity Scott Kean, COO, owns 4.3% Ian Crawley, FD, owns 2.3% So I guess management are as keen as shareholders to see the share price tick up. The announcement of a significant contract in each of the last four months indicates that the directors are working hard to achieve that objective. Conclusion The ATCG share price fell when Mark Woodridge departed, and it is only now reaching the giddy heights last seen in the third quarter of 2006, and yet ATCG seems to have achieved so much in the last 12 months. I guess that it will take one or two more 'good news' stories to get the share price motoring. A good start would be a trading update for the first half of 2007. The omens look good (fingers crossed), in particular: - The contract wins indicate that ATCG has a reasonable business model. - The newly appointed FD investing close to £575k in ATCG. Regards, Colin
AT Communications share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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