Aston Martin Lagonda Glo... Share Discussion Threads

[anony mous] 04/10/2021 09:22

He misinterprets alot of posts and gets confused.I asked him why he bought few weeks ago but he still cant answer that.Lol, ignore it.

[swiss tony] 04/10/2021 08:54

"How many more buying opportunities do we need"? What does that mean then?

[bashor] 04/10/2021 08:35

I didn’t say I was buying did I, only that I see value perhaps

[swiss tony] 04/10/2021 08:02

You're buying....What do you know that we don't? Can I ask what positives you see here to want you to buy?

[bashor] 01/10/2021 16:43

How many more buying opportunities do we need

[anony mous] 21/9/2021 19:17

SwissPls answer my question, it is simple.Thanks

[swiss tony] 21/9/2021 18:58

"Now as far as valuations are concerned Ferrari trade on a PE of 49. Apply that to your low ball figure of £100m and you are a good way towards the 3 times target of £6 billion. Given the high growth rate you are suggesting PE of 49 may be low." Ferrari's current PE is 40, not 49. So even if you want to afford Aston Martin the same PE as Ferrari, multiply that by the £95m potential profit in 2024/25 and you have £3.8bn market cap. You stated threefold, which is 6.6bn market cap, now it's down to 3.8bn and still based on a massively stretched PE ratio which no-one in their right mind would allow for AML

[swiss tony] 21/9/2021 18:14

So why did they raise £77m in February when they had £500m in the bank? At 10.5% interest. What are you on about, debit bank and credit deposits? If the deposits are not included in the cash on the balance sheet, where are they? Specifics please.

[pdt] 21/9/2021 17:47

Oh dear Swiss Tony you clearly do not understand Accounts. When you take a deposit it is Debit Bank and Credit Deposits. When a Car is delivered to the customer you Debit Deposits and Credit Sales. The £500 million in the bank is real it doesn't disappear when a vehicle is delivered. As far as cashflow is concerned I refer you to the interim accounts, it is set out very clearly there. Net cash burn of about £10m per month. They are well funded. A high PE reflects a high growth company. Applicable if the £100m profit is achieved. That is your low number. Anony Mous - thanks for posting the BBC F1 Story. Looks a positive move.

[swiss tony] 21/9/2021 17:33

And my 'lowball figure of £100m....' Stroll's words: £2bn turnover 10,000 cars sold £500m EBITDA. Thats an ASP of £200k per car, let me know how you get there from the current ASP of £152k, which Ken (CFO) confirmed in June was the level they are working at for the foreseeable future. Interest of £135m-145m per annum Capex plus R&D of £250m-275m per annum. So.... 500m EBITDA minus 140m interest miunus 265m capex/R&D = £95m profit 4 YEARS AWAY!!!!! Thats calculations using the mid-range of interest, capex and R&D figures supplied by the company in June 2021. you expect Stroll's hyperbole to be 100% true. They have £1.35bn in debt and £1.35bn in intangible assets which have to be written down in next 4/5 years. So £100m wasn't even lowball, it was the top end of expectations. Hence why you avoided the court case with Nebula, cos if they lose that, they won't be making ANY profit in 4 years and Stroll knows it. He knew nothing about Nebula taking royalties when he bought the company. Operating Profit, Free Cash Flow, and Net Debt are heading in the wrong direction St Athan running at 40% having sacked 1/3 workforce as DBX sales are so low.

[anony mous] 21/9/2021 17:22

BBC News 21 Sept 2021 Former McLaren boss Martin Whitmarsh is returning to Formula 1 with the Aston Martin team. The 63-year-old is to oversee Aston Martin's F1 project as chief executive officer of a newly established company, Aston Martin Performance Technologies. Aston Martin F1 CEO and team principal Otmar Szafnauer will report to Whitmarsh, with both men answerable to Aston Martin owner Lawrence Stroll. Whitmarsh is "the ideal person" to lead Aston Martin to success, Stroll said. "Martin has enjoyed a long, successful and high-profile career, spanning the motorsport, automotive, aerospace, marine and renewable-energy sectors," the Canadian billionaire added. "Moreover, he is a proven winner in Formula 1." Whitmarsh was McLaren F1's team principal and chief executive officer, as well as CEO of the McLaren Group, from 2009 to 2014, before being sacked by chairman Ron Dennis, who was himself removed from the company three years later. Since then, Whitmarsh has been CEO of the Ineos America's Cup team, as well as doing some behind-the-scenes consulting in F1. Last year, he was also appointed a member of the Hamilton Commission, set up by seven-time champion Lewis Hamilton to find solutions to the lack of representation of ethnic minorities in the British motorsport industry. Whitmarsh said he had been impressed by Stroll's "formidable business acumen and his seemingly inexhaustible ambition". He added: "Lawrence intends Aston Martin to win F1 World Championships, plain and simple, and I would not have joined him in that endeavour unless I was utterly convinced that it was an entirely achievable aim. "I know what it takes to win in F1 and, inspired by Lawrence's leadership and backed by the skill, passion and resolve of the workforce, I intend to do whatever I can to make sure that our team becomes the winning operation that Lawrence is determined that it should be." Aston Martin Performance Technologies will be similar in nature to equivalent, well-established companies at McLaren and Williams which apply F1 expertise and technology to areas outside the sport. Whitmarsh's appointment follows months of speculation that Aston Martin were looking for a senior manager to either replace or oversee Szafnauer at their F1 team. Aston Martin say Whitmarsh's appointment is intended to be in addition to the current management structure of the F1 team and that Szafnauer will remain in his position as the day-to-day boss of F1 operations. Szafnauer said: "Martin is an experienced and capable business leader, extremely successful for McLaren in F1, and I am very much looking forward to working with him. "Martin's arrival will allow me to put 100 per cent of my energies into making Aston Martin F1 team a winning machine."

[anony mous] 21/9/2021 17:10

STSo why did you buy here last month?What positives do you see?Flip side think for a mo.

[swiss tony] 21/9/2021 17:05

Sober up! You are comparing a car crash of a company with Ferrari? Hahah. Ferrari's PE is that of a luxury brand, not a car company, and for very good reason, it deserves it... Ferrari turnover is over £3.4bn per year, and PURE PROFIT after all expenses is circa £500m. Year after year. Covid resulted in a 10% hit to turnover, which has been recouped already this year. Let's compare that to AML: AML have only ever made a profit once, when it loaded dealer forecourts with DB11s in 2018 for the IPO: One of the worst IPOs in UK history. AML is selling HALF the number of sports/GT cars than they did in 2019. The DBX was supposed to be a saviour, selling 6000 cars per annum, now that has dropped to 3000 and failing to meet even that. AML's cash of £500m includes deposits of circa £270m, and as soon as the Valkyrie gets delivered, that cash will move from the balance sheet. Interest payments on the £1.3bn of bonds are 12.5-15%, which equates to £135-145m per year ALONE. AML are burning through £200m of cash PER YEAR! That's why they raised cash in Feb, they don't really have 500m cash, more than half of it is deposits for cars that are nearing delivery. It's all smoke and mirrors and you fell hook line and sinker for it. So you applied Ferrari's PE ratio to AML, and in 4 years and get £4.9bn market cap, nowhere near £6.6bn, but your original statement was it was worth treble? You ask any city boys to apply Ferrari's PE to AML and they will laugh you out of town. You ignored my question on the Nebula court case too and how it will affect profit, probably wiping out the £100m profit we spoke about for 2025. You failed to answer how AML will get to 10,000 car sales. All you have done is compare market cap to Ferrari and think it should be higher, with NO REASONING. If you want to compare a car crash of a company with one of the finest profit making luxury goods companies of ALL time, then crack on. I'll be here keeping you and everyone else honest.

[pdt] 21/9/2021 16:20

Felisa only joined in July and here is his impressive and relevant CV; Amedeo was the CEO of Ferrari S.p.A. from 2008 until June 2016 and prior to this from 2006 until 2008 he served as General Manager and Deputy General Manager of Ferrari. From 1996 until 2004 he was the General Manager of the Ferrari GT department, coordinating the product development, powertrains and vehicle departments of both Ferrari and Maserati with respect to the market positioning of the two brands. In the 1990s, as a technical Senior Vice President of Ferrari, Amedeo oversaw the planning, coordination and management of the entire technical department, including defining new business model plans, supervising the development of both innovation and products and managing the product development teams, including ensuring employee growth. Prior to joining Ferrari, he was a product development team leader at Alfa Romeo S.p.A. Amedeo holds a degree in mechanical engineering from the Milan Polytechnic University. Now as far as valuations are concerned Ferrari trade on a PE of 49. Apply that to your low ball figure of £100m and you are a good way towards the 3 times target of £6 billion. Given the high growth rate you are suggesting PE of 49 may be low. As far as cash is concerned they had £505m at 30th June 2021. Even with monthly net cash outflow of £10m per month they seem well funded to achieve their 2024/25 goals. You seem to be strengthening the case that the company looks a good investment at this level. Well funded, good management team and great product in the luxury sector.

[swiss tony] 21/9/2021 14:58

Felisa is the only board member not to have bought shares, I wonder why..... When he does, you'll have the ghost of a point. Stroll is selling the Canadian race track and his Ferrari collection, you need deep pockets for F1 and unprofitable car companies. I notice you didn't answer my question. 2024/25 aim is 10,000 car sales. How are they going to double sales from here to then? And what's the profit margin when you deduct interest payments, R&D etc. Lucky if it's £100m for 2025, so why would that would the company be worth £7bn (3 times today's price) When you start answering with figures rather than blind faith and believing everything billionaire's say.... How long do you think before they need to raise cash again? They raised £77m in Feb and spent £60m of it in 5 months. £2.2bn company with £1bn turnover, making a £200m loss. Also, what are your thoughts on the current court case with Nebula? Do you know if they lose that then they have to pay royalties on every single Valkyrie, Valhalla and Vanquish sold?

[pdt] 21/9/2021 13:57

There are other experienced people on the Board. New appointments; Amedeo Felisa (former CEO of Ferrari), Natalie Massenet DBE (founder of Net-a-Porter), Marigay McKee (former President of Saks Fifth Avenue) and Franz Reiner (current Mercedes-Benz AG executive) Tatty fashion labels? Not sure if the brands of Ralph Lauren, Tommy Hilfiger, Michael Kors would agree with you. He has the F1 Aston Martin team, race tracks in Canada, as well as previously owning a Ferrari dealership. He seems to have some experience of the sector as well surrounding himself with the right people. I am no expert but from experience a good management team can make a huge difference. Perhaps they will fail but the odds look attractive for a small punt in my portfolio. In addition I like the product.

[swiss tony] 21/9/2021 11:41

Well if you believe every CEO/Chairman, you'd buy into every company based on what they say, and make money. The difficulty is working out who to believe. Confirmation bias is huge, you think Stroll is going to admit low sales? He ego is way too huge for that. Do you know Stroll lost millions and completely collapsed the last company he bought into? Asprey & Garrard, google it. He is no god, au contraire, a billionaire through tatty fashion labels. A niche car company who never made a profit is a different story. What's your estimate of profit on 10,000 sales and £2bn turnover, PDT?

[pdt] 21/9/2021 11:12

At the results at the end of July Stroll said; "The demand we see for our products, the new product pipeline and the quality of the team we have in place to execute, gives me great confidence in our continued success as we progress towards achieving our medium-term targets of 10k units, GBP2bn revenue and GBP500m of adjusted EBITDA, as we transform Aston Martin to be one of the greatest ultra-luxury car brands in the world." Ferrari the other ultra-luxury brand has a market cap of about £35 billion. Aston Martin's is £2 billion. So it seems possible to grow the market cap to £6 billion in the medium term. I believe they have appointed a former Ferrari CEO to the Board who may know how to achieve it.

[swiss tony] 21/9/2021 10:25

What justification does it have for a share price 3 times the current one? As far as I can see, China is imploding and that's the highest growth area for AML. The DBX real run rate is around 2100-2300 per year. Palmer said 6000 per year, Stroll said 3000 and it's not even going to hit that. Sports cars/GT are half the sales they were in 2019, pre pandemic. AML are still losing £200m per year after all Moers cost cutting, so where is the growth going to come from? Genuine question.

[pdt] 21/9/2021 08:48

Bought my first shares here today. There was a tip in Maudlin Economics Smart Money. It is mainly a US aimed newsletter so perhaps some more interest this afternoon when the US are up and about. The gist was they thought the share price could be 3 times higher in a few years time. As an aside will the Bond movie released at the end of the month give a boost? I believe there are four models featured in the film. And the film has just got the go ahead for a release in China.

[swiss tony] 18/9/2021 11:42

Yeah, interesting, that's the 2023 model.

[pwal] 17/9/2021 10:33

The DBX hybrid has been seen testing in Germany according to Auto Express

[yorkie56] 17/9/2021 09:27

Swiss Tony is a paid de-ramper based out of Singapore. He got busted on the lse forum under the I'd C2468. Just ignore him and sooner or later he will go away.

[smartelly] 17/9/2021 08:50

Would love it if Swiss Tony died

[inaminute] 17/9/2021 08:33

Why keep it civil with those who seek to disrupt with stupid comments?