Asiamet Resources Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 15/2/2018 11:51

The maiden Resource estimate for the BKZ Polymetallic and BKZ Copper Zones expected in Q2/2018 will be much anticipated considering the very high grade assay results achieved to date.

The price of Zinc and lead is now 51% and 37% respectively of the price of Copper - the grade percentages of Zinc and Lead combined in the BKZ Resource Estimate are likely to be many, many multiples of the excellent copper grade in the BKM Copper Resource Estimate of June 2017.

[mr roper] 15/2/2018 10:55

Looking very positive for the next leg.

[snickerdog] 15/2/2018 10:44

Some pictures from Beutonghttps://twitter.com/asiamet_res_ars/status/964085344995028992

[mount teide] 15/2/2018 10:43

Follow the smart money!

Private capital favours investing in copper over gold for first time - Mining.com -Feb 2018

'Gold projects are no longer the favourite destination of private capital raised for investment in the mining sector as optimism about electric vehicle demand steer funds into battery metals.

Private-equity deals in the mining industry bounced back in 2017 according to a new report by UK law firm Berwin Leighton Paisner with investment in the sector jumping by more than 30% to $2.3 billion.

Copper overtook gold as the most attractive commodity in 2017, with $1.6 billion in deals representing just shy of 70% of all money flowing into the sector. Battery metals such as lithium, cobalt (which is mined as a byproduct of copper and nickel), vanadium and graphite attracted $175 million from private equity investors according to the report quoted by Bloomberg:

"With the continued recovery in the sector, 2018 is expected to see an ongoing deployment of capital by the mining private equity funds," Alexander Keepin wrote in the report. "Battery metals, copper and gold are expected to continue to be the most popular commodities."

[sos100] 15/2/2018 10:08

Getting ready to start Beutong.
latest twitter update from ARS

[yorkie14] 15/2/2018 10:02

I had April penciled in for the next leg up with consolidation to end but maybe wrong and we could be closer than previously thought....

[mount teide] 15/2/2018 09:40

Industrial Metal Pricing post the H1/2016 Commodity Cycle recession low compared to pricing at the peak of the recovery/boom phase of the last commodity cycle 2000-2010:

Copper
$4,363/t - $1.98/lb - 2016 Commodity Cycle Low

$4,871/t - $2.21/lb - 2016 Average Price
$6,193/t - $2.81/lb - 2017 Average Price
$7,008/t - $3.18/lb - H1/2018 Average price
$7,140/t - $3.24/lb - Current Price

$9,962/t - $4.50/lb - Peak price of last commodity cycle(2010)


Lead
$1,586/t - $0.72/lb - 2016 Commodity Cycle low

$1,873/t - $0.85/lb - 2016 Average Price
$2,325/t - $1.05/lb - 2017 Average Price
$2,556/t - $1.16/lb - H1/2018 Average price
$2,556/t - $1.16/lb - Current Price

$3,898/t - $1.81/lb - Peak Price of last commodity cycle(2007)


Zinc
$1,454/t - $0.66/lb - 2016 Commodity Cycle Low

$2,093/t - $0.95/lb - 2016 Average Price
$2,909/t - $1.32/lb - 2017 Average Price
$3,438/t - $1.56/lb - H1/2018 Average price
$3,592/t - $1.63/lb - Current Price

$4,518/t - $2.05/lb - Peak price of last commodity cycle(2007)

[mr roper] 15/2/2018 08:53

Nice start here. Next leg up underway?

[mount teide] 14/2/2018 21:23

HG - I agree - Unlike previous mining sector recessions, by the second year of recovery Zinc, Lead and Copper are already at/in deficit with warehouse stocks at/or close to decade lows due to mine closures, bankruptcies, smart use of mine shut-ins and a near 70% drop since 2013 in capital expenditure developing new production. Exploration has dropped by over 90% during the last half decade.

Add into this mix IMF Global GDP forecast uplifts to nearly 4% for 2018 and 2019, together with the US announcing a record programme of tax cuts and the opening of the capital expenditure floodgates on an unprecedented scale to rebuild their crumbling infrastructure.

Add in the rapidly growing demand for industrial metals from the electric car and renewable energy sectors and India with a population almost identical to China (1.4 billion) commencing a huge countrywide infrastructure modernisation programme.

Collectively, that lot is the perfect storm brewing for many years of strong demand and high prices, particularly with the inflation genie now out of the bottle after a long sleep and feasting heartily on the QE banquet served up by the Central Banks!

[highly geared] 14/2/2018 20:34

Mount Teide
I wouldn’t be surprised if we take out $5 at some point in the next 5-7 years. 2010 was the tail end of the Chinese led commodities boom and we did see inflation at 4-5% as QE pushed up asset prices but the next cycle is now up and running fuelled by perceived electric vehicle demand , middle class urbanisation in India/ China and infrastructure spending globally.

Forecasts are usually wrong and expect them to under shoot this time around.

[mount teide] 14/2/2018 19:17

After being way behind the curve for over 18 months a number of major US investment banks turned full circle and issued very significant upgrades last week to their 2018 Industrial metal price forecasts:

Copper
$8,000/t - $3.60/lb - Goldman Sachs - by year end
$7,750/t - $3.52/lb - Bank of America - by mid year
£7,175/t - $3.26/lb - Citigroup - Average for year
$7,118/t - $3.23/lb - Current price
$6,193/t - $2.81/lb - 2017 Average Price
$4,848/t - $2.21/lb - 2016 Average price(copper made a bottom/8 year low in March).

$9,950/t - $4.50/lb - 2010 - All time high price

This is an interesting development because I think it is fair to say most copper market analyst price forecasts have been consistently behind the curve since the market bottomed in H1/2016.

From my notes, last year the consensus forecast 2017 LME cash copper price was $5,350/$2.43 - it actually averaged $6,204/$2.81, some 16% higher.

The overwhelming majority of analysts forecast falling prices in H2/2017 compared to H1/2017 - they were wrong, the price averaged 15.3% higher in H2.

CRU were one few analysts to correctly call the bottom in 2016 - and when many analysts were predicating weaker prices in 2017, were almost a lone voice in correctly forecasting a strong recovery in late 2016 and through 2017.

They are currently forecasting prices to continue trending higher through to 2021 as a result of a number of key drivers;

The business cycle is behind the growth in demand and the large wave of mine supply expected during 2011-16 did not materialize.

Enormous renovation needs in developed countries.

Chinese demand to remain strong, as the synchronized nature of growth in the rest of the world gathers pace.

Costs increasing due to declining ore grades at most of the major mines and rising wage expectations.

“We expect pressure on costs to continue…but we see copper prices rising faster than operating costs, ensuring that profit margins increase."

"Many company's were badly hurt in the recession ...they will begin to invest again but much more cautiously.”

In mid-Jan even Chile’s state copper commission, the uber bear Cochilco, updated its 2018 copper price forecast to $6,750/$3.06. The reasons cited were the upcoming wage negotiations in Chile and Peru, as well as stricter environmental policies in China.

Cochilco believes that a deficit of 175,000t of refined copper on the global copper market is possible for 2018, compared with 67,000t in 2017.

[highly geared] 14/2/2018 18:45

A market call on inflation in the US will see commodities head upward. Perfect storm for ARS. Will be good to see copper break above $3.35 to get out of the current trading range.
If we’re at $4 when BKM starts producing , I make that c 25% increase in profit per lb sold on the PEA. I haven’t got a calculator to hand but at 25,000 tonnes a year, that’s c. $43 million per annum additional profit! On PE metrics that will add c£200 million to the market cap...

[littlemadam] 14/2/2018 17:42

With those 100k buys is that why the bid was on 10.13p all afternoon? Did that mean MMs were fishing for shares?

[mr roper] 14/2/2018 15:31

Copper loving those US inflation numbers!

[horneblower] 14/2/2018 09:08

Looks very like a rollover.

[mr roper] 14/2/2018 08:51

Interesting trades

[mr roper] 14/2/2018 06:44

Agreed, Dorset. Needs to take out the previous 3.37/lb high.

[lauders] 14/2/2018 00:51

Interesting feedback MT. Thanks. This bit was good BBC Management are very skilful at putting this bias/slant into their news reports - the Treasury and Foreign Office could learn a lot from them.

[dorset64] 13/2/2018 22:53

Mr R, for the past good few months the charts are showing higher highs, and higher lows for Cu, so the next phase should, if followed take us past 3.3 on the charts above.

[mr roper] 13/2/2018 22:23

Top day for cu.

[mount teide] 13/2/2018 15:07

Hi Lauders - US - the need for renewal/refurbishment of the Nations infrastructure -roads/rail/bridges - seems to be one of the few issues on which Republicans and Democrats actually agree.

With the tail wind of a strong economy forecast to strengthen further over the next 2/3 years, while the Trump/Federal Government is currently only putting up circa 20% of the total funds, much of it along with other incentives is being offered to State and Local Government in return for supporting the plan with the bulk of the funds. Initial reaction from meetings with State and Local Government officials appear to have been very encouraging according to news reports.

With a Presidential election coming up again in less than 3 years it would look very good for Trump and the Republican Party if Republican States fully supported and funded their share of the money for the Plan while the sun was shining(economy strong) and, would look extremely churlish and petty if the Democratic States failed to do likewise.

As current and former senior BBC employees John Simpson and John Sissons recently said, "the BBC has got an embarrassing left wing bias running through the organisation from top to bottom". BBC Management are very skilful at putting this bias/slant into their news reports - the Treasury and Foreign Office could learn a lot from them.

As Nigel Farage and Danial Hannan recently said - it is shocking that without YouTube there would never have been an EU Referendum - "the BBC and Channel 4 (also left wing biased) simply will never show on primetime news programs any of our EU Parliament speeches - our speeches get more airtime and discussion on major news programmes in Australia, Canada and the US than the UK!"

[mr roper] 13/2/2018 14:56

copper having a big 2% day.