Asiamet Resources Share Discussion Threads

[mr roper] 13/2/2018 14:42

In a word, no. Post BFS maybe, but now, no

[gary1966] 13/2/2018 14:35

Only slight reservation is that some of the management team haven't received a salary for three years and they are having to dig into their pockets to buy their options that are now coming up to expiry. I don't know how deep their pockets are but is there a chance that they are going to have to start selling their shares to put food on the table etc?

[lauders] 13/2/2018 14:05

MT - The BBC were reporting that there is still a lot of concern about the source of the majority of the funds in that US$1.5tn spend. Trump is only funding a drop in the ocean of it. So it may not be so certain as some seem to think. Hopefully ARS will benefit in the very long term as I doubt it is going to be a quick fix.

[mr roper] 13/2/2018 13:30

yup, it sure is. Few more to be exercised in the coming months by the look of it.

[adorling] 13/2/2018 13:17

Good to see over £100k coming into the ARS bank from options being exercised.

[mount teide] 13/2/2018 08:20

True to his word Trump last night unveiled a huge US$1.5tn nationwide infrastructure spending plan - with US GDP growth predicted to hit 3pc in 2018, rising to 3.2pc in 2019, the US economy looks well underpinned with this policy announcement to deliver a period of very strong growth well into the next decade.

Lloyd's List Maritime Intelligence - a shipping sector subscription site - in a Special Report on the state of the global shipping industry published today said - 'With the commodities spectrum firmly on the recovery trail the global economic outlook is the best for shipping in a decade'.

[kjawoogie] 13/2/2018 08:07

This talk with Gianni is well worth a watch to see an argument based on maths for $5 copper. If or when we get there and using 10% discount rate that's circa 36p for BKM alone https://youtu.be/DrhZZiAmY9o

[highly geared] 13/2/2018 07:17

Copper price recovering again after last weeks smack down as the main indexes corrected. Steady away with ARS as the team professionally deliver the plan...

[monttim] 12/2/2018 10:49

Ha, nice work HG. Can’t really see too much hindering our path through all the way through our milestones, BKS,BKM,Beutong PLUS all the in between beauties. With that will come 20,30,50 all the way through to over a pound. Wouldn’t surprise me a couple of pence a share in dividend round that point.

[highly geared] 12/2/2018 09:14

I think the golden tickets are on sale here at 10p , with an option to convert into £1 cash on 3 year expiry. Diamond tickets bought in 2015-16 at 1-2p have a similar expiry and cash out price......

[just joined whetstone] 12/2/2018 09:10

Wrong blog

[just joined whetstone] 12/2/2018 07:55

GOLDEN TICKETS ON SALE SOON

[adorling] 11/2/2018 20:43

MT - all good news for ARS in my opinion. DRC classic shooting themselves in the foot without any consideration for the many thousands that could lose their jobs as miners disinvest for years to come.

[mount teide] 11/2/2018 17:16

snick - major producing and under development copper mines of global scale and importance in the DRC, are now subject to an immediate 75% hike in royalties together with a swingeing 'super profits tax' of 50 per cent if the copper price rises by 25% above those used in the mine’s feasibility study - whoever is advising the DRC seems to believe that prices could rise substantially before they peak, and so the 2002 DRC Mining Code should be amended to ensure the Nation (Dictator and his criminal cabal) benefits from any major spike in future pricing.

The DRC mining code 'reforms' can only have a negative impact on the global supply side of the copper industry - by potentially reducing capital investment from existing DRC operators and frightening away prospective investment from other western mining companies in the wider African mining sector.

[mr roper] 11/2/2018 17:03

Not when you think of how much copper is in the DRC and with the current regime will have little chance of ever making it to market.

[snickerdog] 11/2/2018 16:32

Wrong thread perhaps Mount T ?

[mount teide] 11/2/2018 13:46

President Joseph Kabila, the Robert Mugabe trained Dictator of the DRC 'Democratic' Republic of Congo, has made changes to the Mining Code, effective immediately, that has really put the cat among the pigeons in the African mining industry, by creating what investors in Africa fear most - huge uncertainty.

Although Kabila's 14 year two term presidency expired in 2016 - he refused to step down. Following which political violence and government repression intensified, despite widespread opposition and international condemnation. Kabila's senior officials have since deliberately stalled plans to organize elections, while his henchmen, secret police and security forces has systematically silenced, repressed, and intimidated the coalition of voices calling for credible, timely elections.

DRC is the world largest Cobalt producer and Africa's largest copper producer.

Kabila's changes to the DRC's Mining Code saw the shares of Ivanhoe Mines fall 26% last week, as the changes are expected to have an immediate impact on every mining project in that country, including two that are being developed by Ivanhoe.

An Ivanhoe source said the biggest concern is a possible 50% tax on so-called super profits, which are defined as income that is realized when commodity prices rise 25% above levels included in the project’s bankable feasibility study.

PI's in miners with assets in the DRC would do well to keep an eye out for any future announcements from Swiss metals trading giant Glencore AG and Rangold Resources Ltd., companies that will be affected most by the mining law reforms.

The DRC currently accounts for 54% of the world’s cobalt production, any increase in the cost of doing business there may only tighten the supply of a commodity that was already expected to be a top performer in the metals sector this year.

It is worth noting that the new mining code permits the DRC to raise the royalty on cobalt to 10% from 2% should the government decide that the mineral is a 'strategic' substance.

Cobalt, which is produced primarily as a by-product of copper and nickel has recently become a red hot investment area due to its key role in the production of rechargeable batteries used in the manufacture of electric vehicles.

According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, battery demand for cobalt is forecast to rise to 76,000 tonnes by the end of 2020, compared to 46,000 tonnes in 2016.

Increasing consumption of battery metals will be driven by the more than 20 mega battery manufacturing plants that are currently being planned or constructed globally, including the gigafactory that Tesla Motors and partner Panasonic has built in Nevada to support planned production of 500,000 electric cars annually.

Since early 2016, the price of cobalt has more than tripled to over US$36 a pound, the highest level in 10 years.


Edit - Ivanhoe's Kamoa-Kakula copper project is currently under development and could be among the top three copper deposits in the world when fully developed.

In November 2016 Ivanhoe agreed with the DRC government that it would have 10 years to deal with any changes to the country’s 2002 mining law.

But the revision passed by lawmakers said all changes will apply immediately.

Last October analysts at Bernstein put a C$15 target price on the stock, calling it “the world’s most important company,” because of rising demand for copper due to renewable energy electric vehicles.

But the approval by the DRC parliament last week of a new mining law, has seriously dampened the enthusiasm of the market and presumably, Ivanhoe and its financial backers to continue developing the mine at the pace they had planned.

[mount teide] 10/2/2018 19:55

This FT report on the Copper Market should be required reading for any invested or considering an investment in the sector.

- FT Today

Copper is still cheap, despite its surging price

Supply restrictions will be hard to unpick as global demand ramps up

'The copper bells are ringing to warn us we are in the late cycle when metals prices have their sudden and unexpected upward moves. Unexpected, that is, for central bank macroeconomists, supply-chain-stretched manufacturers and off-the-shelf investment algos....

.....This is not just a China story, or unsustainable speculative demand....

There is little exuberance, rational or irrational. Despite their large cash hoards and cash flows, none of the major companies is proposing to shoot a rocket loaded with copper into the asteroid belt, or even invest enough to maintain production.

So world copper production dropped more than 2.5 per cent last year, as declining ore grades and labour strikes more than offset the output of new mines or expanded production at existing mines. This was mostly because of declines in ore grades and delays in commissioning new capacity......


....The first reaction of consumers, manufacturers and politicians will be to accept the copper price increases that will be created by the tight supply conditions.

.....It will take a lot of demand destruction to match a stagnant, choppy and depleting supply. That will happen later in the cycle than rises in rates and declines in equity prices. Copper and copper companies are cheap and interesting. '

[snickerdog] 10/2/2018 18:13

Beutong is modelled on an 80ktpa production rate. In time the total production could be outwith 100ktpa.Have to see how that plays out with their options but certainly be looking at something significant should both ever go to production

[snickerdog] 10/2/2018 18:10

#ARS "Asiamet set for "monumental year" | Coverage of recent Analyst Note upgrading price target to 19p (pre-BFS)http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/191317#click=https://t.co/L5b0q6YDaN

[highly geared] 10/2/2018 17:25

Basing it on starter pit at Beutong rather than full mine development. BKM is slated at 25K tonnes per annum. Thinking 25+25 for starters.

[cyberbub] 10/2/2018 15:52

HG if both BKM and Beutong are "full tilt" I would think there would be more than 50k tons p.a. total production?

[mr roper] 10/2/2018 11:36

would agree with that entirely, HG.

[highly geared] 10/2/2018 11:31

Mr R.
A perfect scenario for ARS as BKM ramps up to full production during 2020 and will likely produce through to 2030 and maybe beyond ( porphyry depending) exactly in the sweet spot for high copper prices and the profit ‘ leverage’ that brings.
With a PEA on Beutong likely Q1 2019 then 2 years for BFS and a year lead to starter pit production,we could end up with 2 mines at full tilt by 2022-23( 50k tonnes / annum)at the time of optimum copper prices.

By this time , much further will be known about the likely colossal size of Beutong and the KSK District, including Baroi.

If copper keeps moving steadily north it’s hard not to see a major bidding for ARS at some point H2 2018/ H1 2019 once BKM is signed off and Beutong is better defined resource wise and in terms of metallurgy.

Equally, if ARS go it alone and develop Beutong in manageable chunks, the long term value proposition is compelling.

It remains a long term (5 year hold ) to obtain maximum value with the upside of earlier value crystallisation ( within 18 months) if a major decides to take us out.
Either way , very comfortable holding here.Obviously, the world macro picture needs to be considered but I try to project to 2022-23 rather than get overly concerned about the current main indices correction ( which was overdue and necessary).

All the best.

[mr roper] 10/2/2018 08:27

And this one