Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Ashtead Group Plc LSE:AHT London Ordinary Share GB0000536739 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  6.00 0.27% 2,229.00 1,569,842 16:35:05
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
2,230.00 2,232.00 2,232.00 2,196.00 2,202.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Support Services 4,499.60 1,059.50 166.10 13.4 -
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
18:28:09 O 56,981 2,202.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
25/6/201918:27Ashtead - Building on Powerful Rental Growth!57,004
04/3/201913:10Ashtead Group Q3 05/03/19 Preview-
28/9/201809:51Ashtead Group PLC _ ACTIVE INVESTORS CLUB (AHT.L)3
29/6/201721:52been a long time since we rock and rolled29

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Ashtead Daily Update: Ashtead Group Plc is listed in the Support Services sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AHT. The last closing price for Ashtead was 2,223p.
Ashtead Group Plc has a 4 week average price of 1,826p and a 12 week average price of 1,826p.
The 1 year high share price is 2,461p while the 1 year low share price is currently 1,572.50p.
There are currently 477,748,600 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 2,593,792 shares. The market capitalisation of Ashtead Group Plc is £10,649,016,294.
fenners66: ian - thats like saying if you don't like one of a political parties policies don't vote for them.... even if you like all of the others. No the answer would be advocate change to that policy. "Fact 2; Aviva’s misfortune does not mean all buybacks are bad, and the case cannot be made using just this one example" But it does mean you have provided a very good example of why they are. Share prices go up and down. Share prices go up on days when there is more demand than supply. Share prices go down when there is more supply than demand. If the only sizeable demand comes from a company doing a buyback and that exceeds supply, price can go up. But when that buyback ends it no longer has a material effect on the share price and very often the result of an artificial higher closing price after buyback, it stimulates supply followed by a fall. After all what criteria do investors use for buying shares ? Prospect of rising profits, rising dividends and therefore rising share price so as to make a gain or gain future dividend income - all to be weighed carefully against the opportunities elsewhere. The same criteria are not used for a buyback. For a start there are no alternative shares to compare to , the "investment" is limited to one share. The shares are most likely to be cancelled so there are no future returns to worry about. The EPS calculation (all things being equal) means a higher EPS - which often rewards directors through their bonus schemes (they think that is a no brainer). What is the point of a buyback then ? To artificially inflate the share price - but if its artificial it invariably comes down again. It removes cash from the balance sheet / adds debt. There must be stats available on what has happened to share prices post buyback - adjusting for real increases in future profits . That would tell a story.
ianwwwhite: fenners Re: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ "Aviva share buyback programme, acquiring 119,491,188 shares at an average price of £5.02 - Aviva share price today? 417p " So you are saying they blew at least £101m overpaying for their own stock. You make a very convincing case for not doing buybacks! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ As often happens on these boards fenners, you are confusing rhetoric with reality. Fact 1: Aviva’s share price decline has resulted in a notional loss against the price the shares could have been purchased in the market yesterday of <>£101m as I pointed out Fact 2; Aviva’s misfortune does not mean all buybacks are bad, and the case cannot be made using just this one example Fact 3: In AHT’s case the figures currently indicate that the average price paid for buyback shares is less than the current market price – a notional profit, but my preference is to assess the benefits of the exercise once it has been completed in its entirety. (If you consider this data critical dyor!) Obviously, as has been said before, if you don't like the AHT buyback scheme, don't invest would seem to be the answer...
fenners66: ian - thanks "share buyback programme, acquiring 119,491,188 shares at an average price of £5.02 Aviva share price today? 417p " So you are saying they blew at least £101m overpaying for their own stock. You make a very convincing case for not doing buybacks ! I wonder too how many of those that sold , later bought back knowing full well that buybacks influence on share prices are only transitory - they are just more hi-demand days that can support a price and when they stop the reverse is most often true. But if you want to support your investment by not selling , restricting supply ( simple economics of supply and demand there) and collecting higher dividends year on year , you can have both a higher income and a higher share price.
ianwwwhite: Hi fenners ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 18 September 2018, 09:32Source - SMW Aviva said Tuesday it had completed its share buyback programme, acquiring 119,491,188 shares at an average price of £5.02 a share, cost <>£600mill ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Aviva share price today? 417p !! It looks like the high dividend and fall in share price over an extended period is trying to tell us something... I think you will find the AHT buyback average price figures and future prospects are a lot more satisfactory, particularly if you are in it for the long term IMHO DYOR
fenners66: Ian > "I reviewed the current AHT buyback progress this morning, and thought it might be of interest: Commencing: 15/12/17 Shares repurchased: 11,595,407 Cost of shares repurchased: £244,793,608" Assuming your figures above are correct and taking the starting point of 499.23m shares issued Then: shares bought and held in treasury are 2.3% If cancelled etc then EPS would rise by 2.3% Since they are not cancelled I think they are still being included in the EPS calc so anal-ysts will ignore the benefit. If the share price rises then the buy backs get more expensive and gain less in EPS... If the £244.793 m had been used to repay the (say ) 6.5% second priority senior secured loan notes due 2022 That would in theory save a gross £15.91m a year in interest. But there is tax to consider: I don't know which jurisdiction they are under so using the blended US tax rate for the last year 34% this would mean £10.5m post tax saving Which is equivalent to EPS gain of 1.1% based on current 195.3 EPS However we know that US tax rates have fallen..... If we use the UK tax rate quoted as 19% then the benefit would be £12.88m or 1.3% EPS US tax rates are going to be closer to UK going forward. Then you may ask what do they do with the £12.88m saving annually from then on ? Well compound it and reduce debt some more increasing EPS again. However it does not stop there. We know that everyone of these loans needs paying and re-negotiating periodically. Not only that but almost never get to term and always involve £m's in fees. These get shown as exceptionals even though they happen every time ( a big bugbear with me). So wipe out the fees by paying off the debt and you save more.... Furthermore covenant tests are ignored completely where there is more headroom against borrowings - so for the future this must buy more safety. "our net debt to Ebitda leverage would begin to fall well below our target range of 1.5 to 2.0 times. The big question I guess is, whether this is desirable or not?" So take it well below. Why would it not be beneficial ? Aside from protection from future creditors - its debt that kills companies before profitability - there would be more profit and cash generated from not having the debt interest to pay. Also we talk about enterprise value. Whenever we look at the value of this company we take into account the debt. Its worth say 15x earnings less the debt. Well less debt leaves more room for equity valuation. Win win. Falling tax rates re-enforce this view in my eyes. I have not yet seen a convincing argument for buybacks - the only one I have seen is the US shareholders like them. They also like Trump and hot dog eating contests ........ Once again the management have done a fantastic job here over the years - but like with a political party you may vote for - they may be very good but you do not have to agree with every policy. Remember this is a cyclical business - no matter how long the cycle seems to run; when the cycle has run its course the debt will need paying and the share price will be falling. Then the short term share price rise will and overpayment for the shares will look stupid. Pay off the debt now and postpone any reckoning - I have been in here for more than a decade and expect to be still in in a decades time - so I don't care about the propping up of the share price this week / month - I want to look forward years and years....
ianwwwhite: bracke Shortly after my earlier comment, I got the 'blue screen of death' syndrome, and had to reboot my PC. I don't know how you did it, I suppose Elite Gurus have mysterious powers, but please desist! As for the AHT share price, I no longer try to second guess this, it outran my expectations some time ago (and I'm not complaining!). I am content to just watch with awe and wonder!
ianwwwhite: God morning bracke From an investors point of view, current AHT share price fluctuations seem to be being driven by the wider market sentiment, so probably not much to say until the 3Q Results are announced on 6th March. In the meantime I'm still holding! :-) .
davidcar7: Ref post 54796 ianwwwhite I have written to Geoff Drabble re the buy back vs higher dividends and reduction in debt owing. Should I receive a reply I would be happy to share the substance of that response. Since the results were issued 2 days ago the shares have drifted quite a significant amount lower -however the figures were outstanding and I believe eventually AHT share price will continue its upward trajectory.
fenners66: Ok for what its worth:- Lets say they bought CRS on a similar multiple to the current AHT share price. That makes the $275m something like 2.6% of AHT Using that assumption they should be buying 2.6% of turnover - About £82m of turnover Interestingly if I use the AHT accounts turnover by employee and multiply by 400 ( the number we have from the acquisition news ) that would give us a turnover of around £93m. I think this actually re-enforces the lower assumption as the smaller standalone business probably has a higher relative admin staff number. Pre-tax profit is about 24% so £82m x 24% = c£20m We trade on a multiple of say 16.3 at the moment so that's worth £321m and we used cash of £211 to get it. I anticipate once they have been integrated there will be savings and efficiencies and a profit increase. It may well need more cash to improve the life of the plant ( if you are selling a business you sweat the assets and generate cash and profit at the expense of capex for a few years to make it look good). There may even have been a negative impact with their customers if they had to put up with old plant. Overall though bolt on profitable acquisitions are probably a good way of diverting cash to build the share price long term.
ianwwwhite: Good afternoon bracke, My earlier comment was made in a light-hearted vein, I am sorry if it has touched a raw nerve. Nevertheless, as you have posed the questions, I am happy to share my views: At any one time it seems self-evident that the AHT share price is the product of a number of key factors: • The company’s results, previous trading and financial performance • The company’s barriers to competition, other competitors, and future market and trading prospects • Investment Analysts recommendations (including those using TA) • Shareholders and prospective purchasers propensity to buy/sell/hold/short shares In addition in the wider market the follow factors seem important: • General market trends • Speed of migration from equipment ownership to renting • Economic cycle • Currency fluctuations (particularly $/£) • Countries attempts to manage their economies e.g. Janet Yellen (rates/expansion/contraction) • Factors like the ‘Trump’ effect In the period from March to June we have had some significant other developments: • Q3 and Q4 results, and record profits for the year ending 30th Apr • Positive free cash flow for the first time in the last five years of 319 mil • Dividend increased again • Five positive Brokers estimates in the range 1650-2000p • Short Tracker indicates shorts above 0.5% stable at 1.14%, lowest since 2015 It seems that all these factors will have played a part in maintaining the AHT share price, (I am sure you can think of others), and of course last but not least there is also the share price movements caused by speculators who form a valuable part of the market although their activities may often create a divergence between market price and the company’s perceived intrinsic value. Did fundamentals play a part in the prices changes you mention – they certainly did in my view. Finally in trying to understand the markets, I am very much drawn to Robert Rheas’s Ripples, Waves and Tides analogy described in The Dow Theory. It makes pefect sense to me!
Ashtead share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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