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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Ashtead Group LSE:AHT London Ordinary Share GB0000536739 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -12.00p -0.69% 1,735.50p 3,293,639 16:35:18
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
1,737.50p 1,739.00p 1,780.00p 1,722.50p 1,750.00p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Support Services 3,418.20 862.10 195.30 8.9 8,398.6

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Date Time Title Posts
13/12/201813:54Ashtead - Building on Powerful Rental Growth!56,184
02/11/201809:34Ashtead2
28/9/201808:51Ashtead Group PLC _ ACTIVE INVESTORS CLUB (AHT.L)3
29/6/201720:52been a long time since we rock and rolled29
01/8/201310:45Ashtead- ASOS of the equipment rental world!! Ј142

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Ashtead Group (AHT) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
17:12:561,739.3594816,489.06O
17:07:531,747.0038663.86O
17:07:531,740.051,66528,971.75O
17:06:291,736.942,50043,423.50O
16:57:531,739.851,65328,759.75O
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Ashtead Group (AHT) Top Chat Posts

DateSubject
13/12/2018
08:20
Ashtead Group Daily Update: Ashtead Group is listed in the Support Services sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AHT. The last closing price for Ashtead Group was 1,747.50p.
Ashtead Group has a 4 week average price of 1,596.50p and a 12 week average price of 1,596.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 2,461p while the 1 year low share price is currently 1,596.50p.
There are currently 483,928,055 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 3,825,637 shares. The market capitalisation of Ashtead Group is £8,398,571,394.53.
19/10/2018
20:46
fenners66: Well when it comes to valuing the shares for me dividend yield plays a large part. AHT has been my growth stock so slices here have been moved over to higher yielding stocks. However I am still of the opinion that AHT should be offering a higher sustainable yield instead of buybacks which not only gives me personally a higher annual return for holding the shares - but allows debt repayment to have that increase by reducing costs. Said all that before - but if the yield was another 50% on top would that have had an impact on reducing the fall ? I have also said before that the support for the share price from buybacks is merely a matter of supply and demand on the day; and the next day the effect is gone - clearly all the buybacks of the last year have done nothing to stop a 52 week low. Arguably they build an artificially supported share price and do not build a loyal shareholder base such as those seeking an income from increased dividends - thus when market sentiment turns against URI there is nothing to stop shareholders trying to bail out and hold on to any gains. Meanwhile debts are higher, interest charges are higher and profit ( not just the statistical measure of EPS) is lower.
20/9/2018
16:54
glawsiain: Hi Ian, It is really an investigation into the capex ashtead put in and the profit returned and the ROCE. Definitely a recommendation. Finishes: "They currently trade on a one-year forecast rolling PE ratio of 13.4 times at a share price of 2,340p and have traded at more than 16 times during this year It seems that some nervousness about the future of the US economy is being baked into the share price. This is despite the fact that there is a backlog of US infrastructure spending, a continued shift to renting equipment and the considerable scope for Ashtead to take a much bigger slice of the US market. Unless there is a sudden collapse in trading, Ashtead looks to be well placed to continue compounding its current high returns. Analysts’ forecasts should always be taken with a pinch of salt, but Ashtead’s earnings per share is expected to increase by 61 per cent between 2018 and 2021, according to current consensus estimates. Yet, the valuation of Ashtead’s shares on a PE basis is at a considerable discount to more stable consumer focused businesses with similar rates of profitability (ROCE) but much lower immediate growth prospects such as Diageo or Unilever. I think this makes sense to an extent as investors are right to put a high price tag on the dependability of profits that these companies have. In fact, this is the case why some investors believe that they are still undervalued. Ashtead is a riskier investment proposition for sure. Time will tell, but I feel that its profits and maybe its share price have not peaked yet"
26/7/2018
00:13
fenners66: Ian > "I reviewed the current AHT buyback progress this morning, and thought it might be of interest: Commencing: 15/12/17 Shares repurchased: 11,595,407 Cost of shares repurchased: £244,793,608" Assuming your figures above are correct and taking the starting point of 499.23m shares issued Then: shares bought and held in treasury are 2.3% If cancelled etc then EPS would rise by 2.3% Since they are not cancelled I think they are still being included in the EPS calc so anal-ysts will ignore the benefit. If the share price rises then the buy backs get more expensive and gain less in EPS... If the £244.793 m had been used to repay the (say ) 6.5% second priority senior secured loan notes due 2022 That would in theory save a gross £15.91m a year in interest. But there is tax to consider: I don't know which jurisdiction they are under so using the blended US tax rate for the last year 34% this would mean £10.5m post tax saving Which is equivalent to EPS gain of 1.1% based on current 195.3 EPS However we know that US tax rates have fallen..... If we use the UK tax rate quoted as 19% then the benefit would be £12.88m or 1.3% EPS US tax rates are going to be closer to UK going forward. Then you may ask what do they do with the £12.88m saving annually from then on ? Well compound it and reduce debt some more increasing EPS again. However it does not stop there. We know that everyone of these loans needs paying and re-negotiating periodically. Not only that but almost never get to term and always involve £m's in fees. These get shown as exceptionals even though they happen every time ( a big bugbear with me). So wipe out the fees by paying off the debt and you save more.... Furthermore covenant tests are ignored completely where there is more headroom against borrowings - so for the future this must buy more safety. "our net debt to Ebitda leverage would begin to fall well below our target range of 1.5 to 2.0 times. The big question I guess is, whether this is desirable or not?" So take it well below. Why would it not be beneficial ? Aside from protection from future creditors - its debt that kills companies before profitability - there would be more profit and cash generated from not having the debt interest to pay. Also we talk about enterprise value. Whenever we look at the value of this company we take into account the debt. Its worth say 15x earnings less the debt. Well less debt leaves more room for equity valuation. Win win. Falling tax rates re-enforce this view in my eyes. I have not yet seen a convincing argument for buybacks - the only one I have seen is the US shareholders like them. They also like Trump and hot dog eating contests ........ Once again the management have done a fantastic job here over the years - but like with a political party you may vote for - they may be very good but you do not have to agree with every policy. Remember this is a cyclical business - no matter how long the cycle seems to run; when the cycle has run its course the debt will need paying and the share price will be falling. Then the short term share price rise will and overpayment for the shares will look stupid. Pay off the debt now and postpone any reckoning - I have been in here for more than a decade and expect to be still in in a decades time - so I don't care about the propping up of the share price this week / month - I want to look forward years and years....
25/7/2018
13:53
ianwwwhite: Good afternoon all, I am getting a distinct feeling of deja vu reading the recent postings on this thread. I thought that the rationale for buybacks versus paying down debt and increasing dividends (none of which are mutually exclusive)had been well aired at the beginning of the year. davidcar7 was kind enough to quote from a reply received from Geoff Drabble (post 54880 11/01/18) explaining his thinking: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Our priorities remain fleet growth and small bolt on acquisitions as we gain market share and improve margins by leveraging the fixed cost in our now extensive depot platform. Clearly this is designed to enhance earnings per share and therefore the share price. We also find ourselves highly cash generative and even after funding these plans, unless we make further investment, our net debt to Ebitda leverage would begin to fall well below our target range of 1.5 to 2.0 times. The big question I guess is, whether this is desirable or not? Well this really depends on our outlook and where we are in the cycle. Currently, our outlook is very positive and we anticipate multiple years of moderate growth. Therefore, we are happy to operate within our longstanding range. It's my belief that by allocating £500m (which would otherwise only be used to delever) to reduce the share count and hence improve EPS, is a sensible approach. As it happens ,from a multiple perspective I do think we are undervalued and having the discipline to recognise this rather than potentially pay inflated multiples for large M&A is a sensible low risk approach to growing the share price. Also , as our cash flow is better understood, I do think there is a chance that we also get a re-rating - but who knows. So will we spend £500m or £1bn? I don't know! We could spend £1bn but only if there is an absence of good organic growth opportunities and/or M&A. However be assured we will always be disciplined in our leverage, remaining within guidance and will constantly reassess what constitutes value. I hope this helps. Of course, there is judgement involved but it is made with a clear understanding of the parameters in which we should operate and a focus on long term share price appreciation. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Good enough for me, and without wishing to start an argument, I personally would like to disassociate myself from any implied criticism of the management in our comments, in my opinion they are doing an exceptional job. It may be that my appreciation of good results, a rising dividend and shareprice, and an extremely positive and growing cash flow might be at variance with your own views. Hopefully as usual there will be room for more one than one view on this thread :-)
20/7/2018
08:04
ianwwwhite: Interesting to overlay URI and AHT price charts over the last year: After a pronounced divergence starting around 11 months ago, the share prices have steadily converged again, but it seems that URI is currently still in a downtrend, whilst AHT is trending upwards. Perhaps we shouldn't give too much weight to URI's influence, although it performance does give some indication as to the health of the equipment rental market in the States.
27/2/2018
15:49
ianwwwhite: bracke Shortly after my earlier comment, I got the 'blue screen of death' syndrome, and had to reboot my PC. I don't know how you did it, I suppose Elite Gurus have mysterious powers, but please desist! As for the AHT share price, I no longer try to second guess this, it outran my expectations some time ago (and I'm not complaining!). I am content to just watch with awe and wonder!
14/2/2018
11:47
ianwwwhite: God morning bracke From an investors point of view, current AHT share price fluctuations seem to be being driven by the wider market sentiment, so probably not much to say until the 3Q Results are announced on 6th March. In the meantime I'm still holding! :-) .
14/12/2017
19:46
davidcar7: Ref post 54796 ianwwwhite I have written to Geoff Drabble re the buy back vs higher dividends and reduction in debt owing. Should I receive a reply I would be happy to share the substance of that response. Since the results were issued 2 days ago the shares have drifted quite a significant amount lower -however the figures were outstanding and I believe eventually AHT share price will continue its upward trajectory.
02/8/2017
08:55
fenners66: Ok for what its worth:- Lets say they bought CRS on a similar multiple to the current AHT share price. That makes the $275m something like 2.6% of AHT Using that assumption they should be buying 2.6% of turnover - About £82m of turnover Interestingly if I use the AHT accounts turnover by employee and multiply by 400 ( the number we have from the acquisition news ) that would give us a turnover of around £93m. I think this actually re-enforces the lower assumption as the smaller standalone business probably has a higher relative admin staff number. Pre-tax profit is about 24% so £82m x 24% = c£20m We trade on a multiple of say 16.3 at the moment so that's worth £321m and we used cash of £211 to get it. I anticipate once they have been integrated there will be savings and efficiencies and a profit increase. It may well need more cash to improve the life of the plant ( if you are selling a business you sweat the assets and generate cash and profit at the expense of capex for a few years to make it look good). There may even have been a negative impact with their customers if they had to put up with old plant. Overall though bolt on profitable acquisitions are probably a good way of diverting cash to build the share price long term.
17/7/2017
13:45
ianwwwhite: Good afternoon bracke, My earlier comment was made in a light-hearted vein, I am sorry if it has touched a raw nerve. Nevertheless, as you have posed the questions, I am happy to share my views: At any one time it seems self-evident that the AHT share price is the product of a number of key factors: • The company’s results, previous trading and financial performance • The company’s barriers to competition, other competitors, and future market and trading prospects • Investment Analysts recommendations (including those using TA) • Shareholders and prospective purchasers propensity to buy/sell/hold/short shares In addition in the wider market the follow factors seem important: • General market trends • Speed of migration from equipment ownership to renting • Economic cycle • Currency fluctuations (particularly $/£) • Countries attempts to manage their economies e.g. Janet Yellen (rates/expansion/contraction) • Factors like the ‘Trump’ effect In the period from March to June we have had some significant other developments: • Q3 and Q4 results, and record profits for the year ending 30th Apr • Positive free cash flow for the first time in the last five years of 319 mil • Dividend increased again • Five positive Brokers estimates in the range 1650-2000p • Short Tracker indicates shorts above 0.5% stable at 1.14%, lowest since 2015 It seems that all these factors will have played a part in maintaining the AHT share price, (I am sure you can think of others), and of course last but not least there is also the share price movements caused by speculators who form a valuable part of the market although their activities may often create a divergence between market price and the company’s perceived intrinsic value. Did fundamentals play a part in the prices changes you mention – they certainly did in my view. Finally in trying to understand the markets, I am very much drawn to Robert Rheas’s Ripples, Waves and Tides analogy described in The Dow Theory. It makes pefect sense to me!
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